Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian Result & Analysis

Celtic are the clear favourite, with the model assigning an 80% chance to a home win, 15% to a draw and 5% to a Hearts victory. The 80% home-win probability reflects Celtic’s dominant home form, scoring an average of 2.64 goals and conceding only 0.36 against weaker opposition, while Hearts struggle away, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded against stronger teams. The expected total of 3.0 goals aligns with the model’s 23% chance of the most likely total of 2 goals, yet the single most probable scoreline is 2-0 with a 15.8% probability. The suggested picks include an 85.4% chance of Under 5.5 cards, an 83.7% chance of Over 19.5 fouls, an 80.2% chance of a Home win (edge 11%) and a 73.5% chance of Over 8.5 corners, alongside Under 4.5 cards at 72%. The model also forecasts an 80.1% chance of Over 1.5 goals, but this is a miss, and an 71% chance of Over 21.5 fouls, also a miss. Celtic’s recent win streak and Hearts’ unbeaten run add context, but the venue advantage and form disparities keep the home win as the most likely outcome.

Celtic’s recent run of wins carried into this match, while Hearts remained unbeaten in their last five. The Pythia model predicted a home win with an 80.2% probability, and the result was a 1-0 victory for Celtic, confirming the model’s call. The model’s other selections largely performed as expected: Under 5.5 cards hit at 85.4%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 83.7%, Home win hit at 80.2%, Over 8.5 corners hit at 73.5%, and Under 4.5 cards hit at 72.0%. However, Over 1.5 missed despite an 80.1% chance, and Over 21.5 fouls missed at 71.0%. Overall, the favoured outcome and most picks were correct, with a few misses.