Celtic are the clear favourite, the model rating them at an 82% chance of victory, thanks to their dominant home form and the fact that they face a weaker opponent on their own turf. The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 17.8% probability. Celtic’s home scoring average of 2.71 and conceding only 0.36 goals against weaker sides contrasts sharply with ST Johnstone’s away average of 0.6 scored and 0.8 conceded against stronger opponents. The model’s picks include an 86.5% chance of Under 5.5 cards, a 82.1% chance of a Home win (edge 1%), Under 25.5 fouls at 78.7%, Over 1.5 at 77.4%, Under 4.5 cards at 73.6% and BTTS No at 70.7%. The probabilities for the match outcome are Home win82%, Draw 14%, Away win 4%.
Results analysis
The win extends Celtic’s recent run, as they beat St Johnstone 7-0, a result that matched the model’s prediction of a home victory. The pre-match favourite was the home win, given an 82.1% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The model’s selections largely came in: Under 5.5 cards hit at 86.5%, Under 25.5 fouls at 78.7%, Over 1.5 at 77.4%, Under 4.5 cards at 73.6%, and BTTS No at 70.7%. Even the most likely scoreline of 2-0, with a 17.8% chance, was eclipsed by the dominant 7-0 outcome, confirming the model’s overall accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Celtic win✓ Hit
82.1%
Avg Implied 81.3% · @ 1.16
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
14.3%
Avg Implied 13.2% · @ 7.16
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone win✗ Miss
3.7%
Avg Implied 5.5% · @ 17.17
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Celtic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
0.53
2.67
0.40
1.60
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.33
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (27)
2.30
0.44
2.71
0.36
1.85
0.54
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.00
1.33
0.87
0.73
1.13
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.40
0.80
2.00
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (20)
1.20
0.80
1.60
0.30
0.80
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.9%
@ 1.65-4.3%
Under 2.5
47.1%
@ 2.21+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.7%
Under 3.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
29.3%
No
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
17.8%
3-0
14.4%
1-0
14.2%
4-0
8.7%
2-1
6.8%
0-0
6.7%
1-1
6.2%
3-1
5.5%
Celtic goals ↓
ST Johnstone goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
1
14%
6.2%
1.1%
0.1%
0.0%
2
18%
6.8%
1.3%
0.2%
0.0%
3
14%
5.5%
1.0%
0.1%
0.0%
4
8.7%
3.3%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Celtic goals (down), columns = ST Johnstone goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.67
Rangers
2.31
Motherwell
1.53
Aberdeen
1.50
Livingston
1.30
ST Johnstone
1.24
Hibernian
1.23
Kilmarnock
1.10
ST Mirren
0.97
Ross County
0.97
Hamilton
0.90
Heart Of Midlothian
0.77
Celtic is 1.43 points better than ST Johnstone in terms of average points per game (2.67 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.97
Rangers
2.21
Hibernian
1.40
Livingston
1.37
Motherwell
1.37
Aberdeen
1.33
Kilmarnock
1.03
Heart Of Midlothian
1.03
Hamilton
1.00
Ross County
0.97
ST Johnstone
0.97
ST Mirren
0.80
Celtic is 2.00 goals better than ST Johnstone in terms of goals scored per game (2.97 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.63
Rangers
0.66
Aberdeen
1.20
Motherwell
1.27
Livingston
1.30
Kilmarnock
1.37
ST Mirren
1.37
ST Johnstone
1.59
Hibernian
1.63
Hamilton
1.67
Heart Of Midlothian
1.73
Ross County
2.00
Celtic is 0.95 goals better than ST Johnstone in terms of goals conceded per game (0.63 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Celtic
For 8.0 · Against 3.7 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.8 · Against 10.8 · Total 19.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Johnstone
For 4.5 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 12.7 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celtic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.2
10.0
3.6
3.3
4.0
22.8
22.6
23.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
13.0
15.0
11.0
5.3
5.7
5.0
28.0
27.3
28.7
vs Weaker (44)
10.2
10.6
9.9
3.4
3.0
3.8
22.1
22.0
22.2
% over line
60%
72%
48%
52%
48%
56%
56%
52%
60%
% under line
40%
28%
52%
48%
52%
44%
44%
48%
40%
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.1
9.4
3.5
3.8
3.2
22.8
24.4
21.2
vs Stronger (18)
10.7
11.3
10.0
3.3
4.2
2.1
22.2
23.2
21.0
vs Similar (32)
9.2
9.3
9.2
3.7
3.6
3.8
23.1
25.2
21.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
52%
56%
56%
64%
48%
60%
72%
48%
% under line
46%
48%
44%
44%
36%
52%
40%
28%
52%
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rangers
11.1
Celtic
10.6
Ross County
10.4
Livingston
9.8
Hibernian
9.8
ST Johnstone
9.8
Motherwell
9.7
ST Mirren
9.7
Heart Of Midlothian
9.3
Kilmarnock
9.1
Hamilton
9.1
Aberdeen
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rangers
4.4
Aberdeen
4.3
Heart Of Midlothian
4.1
Kilmarnock
4.1
Ross County
4.0
Hibernian
3.9
Hamilton
3.8
ST Mirren
3.7
Celtic
3.6
ST Johnstone
3.5
Motherwell
3.4
Livingston
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
27.7
Aberdeen
26.6
Hamilton
25.7
Rangers
25.5
Kilmarnock
24.9
Motherwell
24.7
Hibernian
24.2
ST Mirren
24.1
Ross County
23.3
Celtic
22.8
ST Johnstone
22.8
Livingston
22.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.8%
Under 9.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.2%
Under 3.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
51.5%
Under 21.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Celtic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.17
1.40
0.07
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.11
0.11
1.43
0.07
0.77
0.15
Clean sheet %
83% (+55pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.30
0.60
0.33
0.20
0.27
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.30
0.60
0.60
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.30
0.60
0.20
0.30
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
80% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Celtic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Celtic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.37
1.27
0.33
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (27)
1.19
0.33
1.29
0.29
1.08
0.38
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.73
0.53
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.10
0.20
1.40
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.10
0.50
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Celtic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
82.1%
1.16
-
-
-
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS No
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celtic · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Benjamin Nygren60%
Camilo Durán40%
Callum McGregor25%
Kasper Høgh25%
Luke McCowan25%
Kieran Tierney0%
James Forrest0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luke McCowan25%
Colby Donovan20%
Kieran Tierney0%
James Forrest0%
Callum McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Benjamin Nygren0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Camilo Durán0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kieran Tierney40%
Benjamin Nygren40%
Yang Hyun-Jun20%
Camilo Durán20%
James Forrest0%
Callum McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Camilo Durán60%
Kasper Høgh50%
Benjamin Nygren40%
Kieran Tierney0%
James Forrest0%
Callum McGregor0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
ST Johnstone · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ruari Paton33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Kai Fotheringham33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Jamie Gullan0%
Reece McAlear0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Liam Smith33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sam Stanton33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamie Gullan33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Celtic's squad is €111m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€116m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Celtic's attack is €54m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€56m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Celtic's midfield is €18m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€20m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Celtic's defence is €39m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€41m vs €2m).
Scotland: Premiership 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Rangers
Motherwell
Aberdeen
Livingston
Hibernian
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
Ross County
Heart Of Midlothian