Celtic’s dominance at home is clear, with an 84% chance of victory that the model flags as the most likely outcome. Their recent form - four wins from five - coupled with a 3.27 average goal output and only 0.55 conceded at home against weaker opposition fuels that confidence. ST Johnstone, struggling on the road, averages just one goal scored and 1.25 conceded against stronger teams, making them a difficult opponent for the Highlanders. The expected total is 3.6 goals, so a 3-goal match is most probable, and the single most likely scoreline is 3-0 for Celtic, a 12% chance. The model also lists a 21% probability that the total will be exactly three goals. Home win probability stands at 84%, draw at 11%, and away win at 4%. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards (93.2%), Over 1.5 goals (88.3%), Under 4.5 cards (84.3%), Home win (84.2% with a 12% edge), Over 19.5 fouls (76.2%), Under 25.5 fouls (70.9%), and Over 2.5 goals (70.4% with a 13% edge).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Celtic, failed to deliver a win, as the game finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s pick of a home win incorrect. The model had given Celtic an 84.2% chance of triumph, yet the result was a stalemate. The suggested selections were mixed: Under 5.5 cards (93.2%) missed, Over 1.5 (88.3%) hit, Under 4.5 cards (84.3%) missed, Home win (84.2%) missed, Over 19.5 fouls (76.2%) hit, Under 25.5 fouls (70.9%) hit, and Over 2.5 (70.4%) missed. Celtic entered the match on a strong run, coming off a win, while St Johnstone were still recovering from two consecutive defeats. The final score of 1-1 underscored the unpredictability of the Premiership.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Celtic win✗ Miss
84.2%
Avg Implied 72.1% · @ 1.30
Edge
+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
11.4%
Avg Implied 17.5% · @ 5.36
Edge
-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone win✗ Miss
4.4%
Avg Implied 10.4% · @ 9.04
Edge
-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Celtic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.77
0.83
2.85
0.77
2.71
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
2.00
0.50
2.00
-
-
vs Weaker (28)
2.93
0.75
3.27
0.55
2.71
0.88
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.07
0.88
1.06
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
1.70
0.83
2.00
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.75
0.90
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.3%
Under 1.5
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
70.4%
@ 1.63+12.6%
Under 2.5
29.6%
@ 2.24-12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.3%
Under 3.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.7%
No
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
12.0%
2-0
12.0%
4-0
9.1%
3-1
7.5%
2-1
7.5%
1-0
7.4%
4-1
5.7%
5-0
5.5%
Celtic goals ↓
ST Johnstone goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.1%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
1
7.4%
5.5%
1.5%
0.3%
0.1%
2
12%
7.5%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
3
12%
7.5%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
4
9.1%
5.7%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Celtic goals (down), columns = ST Johnstone goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rangers
2.68
Celtic
2.03
Hibernian
1.66
Aberdeen
1.47
Livingston
1.18
ST Mirren
1.18
Motherwell
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.18
Dundee Utd
1.16
Ross County
1.03
Kilmarnock
0.95
Hamilton
0.79
Celtic is 0.84 points better than ST Johnstone in terms of average points per game (2.03 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.42
Celtic
2.05
Hibernian
1.26
Kilmarnock
1.13
Livingston
1.11
Motherwell
1.03
ST Mirren
0.97
Aberdeen
0.95
ST Johnstone
0.95
Ross County
0.92
Hamilton
0.89
Dundee Utd
0.84
Celtic is 1.11 goals better than ST Johnstone in terms of goals scored per game (2.05 vs 0.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rangers
0.34
Celtic
0.76
Hibernian
0.92
Aberdeen
1.00
ST Mirren
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.21
Dundee Utd
1.32
Livingston
1.42
Kilmarnock
1.42
Motherwell
1.45
Ross County
1.74
Hamilton
1.76
Celtic is 0.45 goals better than ST Johnstone in terms of goals conceded per game (0.76 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Celtic
For 5.6 · Against 3.7 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 12.3 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Johnstone
For 5.5 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 13.8 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celtic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.5
9.8
3.3
2.8
3.7
21.5
20.2
22.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
11.5
12.0
11.0
4.5
5.5
3.5
27.0
30.5
23.5
vs Weaker (46)
10.0
10.3
9.7
3.2
2.6
3.7
21.0
19.2
22.5
% over line
58%
61%
56%
42%
35%
48%
46%
26%
63%
% under line
42%
39%
44%
58%
65%
52%
54%
74%
37%
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.3
10.4
3.4
3.7
3.1
24.6
25.0
24.1
vs Stronger (17)
9.8
9.6
10.0
3.1
3.6
2.4
23.7
24.0
23.3
vs Similar (33)
9.8
9.1
10.6
3.6
3.8
3.4
25.0
25.5
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
33%
57%
52%
59%
43%
64%
63%
65%
% under line
56%
67%
43%
48%
41%
57%
36%
37%
35%
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamilton
11.3
Dundee Utd
11.3
Ross County
10.9
Rangers
10.8
Hibernian
10.6
ST Mirren
10.5
Kilmarnock
10.4
Motherwell
10.2
Celtic
10.1
ST Johnstone
9.8
Livingston
9.7
Aberdeen
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Motherwell
3.7
Kilmarnock
3.6
Dundee Utd
3.5
ST Johnstone
3.4
Rangers
3.4
Hibernian
3.4
Ross County
3.4
Celtic
3.3
Aberdeen
3.3
ST Mirren
3.2
Hamilton
3.2
Livingston
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.8
Kilmarnock
25.1
Motherwell
25.1
Hamilton
25.0
ST Johnstone
24.6
Ross County
24.3
Livingston
24.2
Hibernian
24.1
ST Mirren
23.6
Rangers
22.9
Dundee Utd
22.8
Celtic
21.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.2%
Under 9.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.4%
Under 3.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
61.0%
Under 21.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Celtic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.43
1.31
0.46
1.24
0.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Weaker (28)
1.32
0.39
1.45
0.36
1.24
0.41
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.60
0.31
0.56
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.83
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.50
0.30
0.40
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Celtic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Celtic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.40
1.54
0.31
1.47
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Weaker (28)
1.61
0.36
1.82
0.18
1.47
0.47
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.56
0.50
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.90
0.50
1.17
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.25
0.60
0.10
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Celtic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home win
84.2%
1.30
-
-
-
-
-
+12.1%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
70.4%
1.63
-
-
-
-
-
+12.6%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celtic · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Benjamin Nygren60%
Camilo Durán40%
Callum McGregor25%
Kasper Høgh25%
Luke McCowan25%
Kieran Tierney0%
James Forrest0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luke McCowan25%
Colby Donovan20%
Kieran Tierney0%
James Forrest0%
Callum McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Benjamin Nygren0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Camilo Durán0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kieran Tierney40%
Benjamin Nygren40%
Yang Hyun-Jun20%
Camilo Durán20%
James Forrest0%
Callum McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Camilo Durán60%
Kasper Høgh50%
Benjamin Nygren40%
Kieran Tierney0%
James Forrest0%
Callum McGregor0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
ST Johnstone · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ruari Paton33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Kai Fotheringham33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Jamie Gullan0%
Reece McAlear0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Liam Smith33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sam Stanton33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamie Gullan33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Celtic's squad is €111m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€116m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Celtic's attack is €54m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€56m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Celtic's midfield is €18m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€20m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Celtic's defence is €39m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€41m vs €2m).
Scotland: Premiership 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Rangers
Hibernian
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
Livingston
Motherwell
Dundee Utd
Ross County
Kilmarnock