Celtic’s form at home is a clear advantage, with an average of 2.29 goals scored and only 0.36 conceded against weaker opposition, while ST Mirren’s away record is weaker, averaging 0.5 scored and 1.25 conceded against stronger teams. The model therefore picks a home win with an 80% probability, the highest of the three outcomes, and the expected total goals is 3.1, with the most likely total of three goals at 22%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 2-0, carrying a 14.5% chance. The home win probability is 80%, the draw 15%, and the away win 5%. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 94.6%, Under 4.5 cards at 86.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 82.4%, Home win at 80.0% with a 7% edge, Over 19.5 fouls at 75.8%, Over 8.5 corners at 72.8%, Under 3.5 cards at 72.3% (miss) and Under 25.5 fouls at 71.2% (miss). The model’s predictions reflect Celtic’s dominant home form and ST Mirren’s struggles away.
Results analysis
The latest outing saw Celtic extend their winning run, finishing 6-0 at home to ST Mirren. The Pythia model had correctly picked a home win with an 80% probability, and the result matched the forecast. The model’s other selections were largely accurate: Under 5.5 cards (94.6%) hit, Under 4.5 cards (86.9%) hit, Over 1.5 (82.4%) hit, Home win (80.0%) hit, Over 19.5 fouls (75.8%) hit, and Over 8.5 corners (72.8%) hit. Two picks missed: Under 3.5 cards (72.3%) and Under 25.5 fouls (71.2%). The final score of 6-0 confirmed the home team’s dominance and the model’s overall accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Celtic win✓ Hit
80.0%
Avg Implied 73.4% · @ 1.29
Edge
+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
14.7%
Avg Implied 16.4% · @ 5.76
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren win✗ Miss
5.4%
Avg Implied 10.2% · @ 9.27
Edge
-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Celtic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.80
2.20
0.40
1.80
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
2.50
vs Weaker (27)
2.15
0.67
2.29
0.36
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.13
0.87
1.20
1.40
1.07
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.78
0.60
2.20
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (21)
1.38
0.86
1.00
0.70
1.73
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.4%
Under 1.5
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.2%
@ 1.51-2.2%
Under 2.5
39.8%
@ 2.50+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.8%
Under 3.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.0%
No
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.5%
3-0
12.4%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
8.1%
4-0
7.9%
1-1
7.0%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
5.1%
Celtic goals ↓
ST Mirren goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
1.8%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
1
11%
7.0%
1.8%
0.3%
0.0%
2
15%
8.1%
2.3%
0.4%
0.1%
3
12%
6.9%
1.9%
0.4%
0.0%
4
7.9%
4.4%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Celtic goals (down), columns = ST Mirren goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
Celtic is 1.29 points better than ST Mirren in terms of average points per game (2.45 vs 1.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
Celtic is 1.55 goals better than ST Mirren in terms of goals scored per game (2.42 vs 0.87).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
Celtic is 0.76 goals better than ST Mirren in terms of goals conceded per game (0.58 vs 1.34).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Celtic
For 7.8 · Against 3.5 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 10.5 · Total 20.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
For 5.8 · Against 5.6 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.7 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celtic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.7
10.6
2.6
2.2
3.0
22.0
21.4
22.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
10.8
10.5
11.0
4.5
4.0
5.0
29.5
30.0
29.0
vs Weaker (46)
10.6
10.7
10.5
2.5
2.1
2.8
21.3
20.6
21.9
% over line
66%
67%
65%
26%
21%
31%
56%
50%
62%
% under line
34%
33%
35%
74%
79%
69%
44%
50%
38%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
9.6
11.6
3.1
3.3
2.9
23.9
24.8
23.0
vs Stronger (18)
9.3
8.1
10.4
2.8
3.2
2.4
24.1
26.4
21.7
vs Similar (32)
11.3
10.5
12.2
3.3
3.4
3.2
23.8
23.8
23.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
52%
72%
38%
48%
28%
68%
76%
60%
% under line
38%
48%
28%
62%
52%
72%
32%
24%
40%
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rangers
10.9
Ross County
10.8
Celtic
10.6
ST Mirren
10.6
Dundee Utd
10.6
Heart Of Midlothian
10.6
Motherwell
10.5
Dundee
10.4
Hibernian
10.3
ST Johnstone
9.5
Aberdeen
9.3
Livingston
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Motherwell
3.6
Dundee Utd
3.6
Heart Of Midlothian
3.6
Livingston
3.3
Rangers
3.3
Ross County
3.3
ST Johnstone
3.2
Dundee
3.2
ST Mirren
3.1
Hibernian
3.1
Aberdeen
2.8
Celtic
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.1
Heart Of Midlothian
25.8
Hibernian
25.3
ST Johnstone
25.0
Ross County
25.0
Livingston
24.6
Motherwell
24.5
Dundee
24.1
ST Mirren
23.9
Dundee Utd
23.7
Rangers
23.3
Celtic
22.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.2%
Under 9.5
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
60.5%
Under 21.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Celtic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.30
1.00
0.20
0.47
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
0.74
0.22
1.00
0.14
0.46
0.31
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.27
0.67
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.43
0.30
0.50
0.55
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Celtic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Celtic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.50
1.20
0.20
1.33
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (27)
1.41
0.44
1.29
0.21
1.54
0.69
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.60
0.53
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.78
0.40
1.20
0.00
0.25
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.43
0.70
0.20
1.18
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Celtic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
80.0%
1.29
-
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5 cards
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celtic · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Benjamin Nygren60%
Camilo Durán40%
Callum McGregor25%
Kasper Høgh25%
Luke McCowan25%
Kieran Tierney0%
James Forrest0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luke McCowan25%
Colby Donovan20%
Kieran Tierney0%
James Forrest0%
Callum McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Benjamin Nygren0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Camilo Durán0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kieran Tierney40%
Benjamin Nygren40%
Yang Hyun-Jun20%
Camilo Durán20%
James Forrest0%
Callum McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Camilo Durán60%
Kasper Høgh50%
Benjamin Nygren40%
Kieran Tierney0%
James Forrest0%
Callum McGregor0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
ST Mirren · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Nsio33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Eseosa Sule0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Carr100%
Luke Thomas33%
Jake Young33%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander Gogić33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eseosa Sule67%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Celtic's squad is €109m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€116m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Celtic's attack is €55m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€56m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Celtic's midfield is €17m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€20m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Celtic's defence is €38m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€41m vs €3m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rangers
Heart Of Midlothian
Livingston
Dundee Utd
Motherwell
Hibernian
Aberdeen
Ross County
ST Johnstone
Dundee