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Celtic vs ST Mirren Result & Analysis

Date: 19/04/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 6-2
Celtic
Celtic
Vs
75%
16%
9%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
ST Mirren
ST Mirren
Scotland: FA Cup
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Celtic’s dominant home form, averaging 2.18 goals for and only 0.91 against, makes a home win the model’s clear favourite, reflected in the 75% probability. The opponent’s away side, ST Mirren, struggles on the road, conceding 2.0 goals on average and scoring just 0.8, so the venue weakness is decisive. The model picks a 3-goal total, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 at 9.9% probability, matching the expected total of 3.6 goals. The predicted result is a home win, with draw and away win chances at 16% and 9% respectively. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (98.7%), Home +2 handicap (97.0%), Home over 0.5 goals (93.4%), Home or Draw (90.8%), Home +1 handicap (90.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.7%), Under 7.5 (96.8% hit, 92.5% miss) and Under 6.5 (miss). Celtic’s recent five-game winning streak, ending with a 3-0 victory over Lask Linz, underpins the confidence, while ST Mirren’s recent loss to Rangers highlights their vulnerability. The model’s selection set, with each probability expressed as a percentage, confirms the expectation of a comfortable Celtic triumph.

Results analysis

The win extends Celtic’s five-game winning run, while ST Mirren return to the pitch after a 1-5 defeat. The model’s favourite was a Home win, with a 75% probability, and the prediction proved correct as Celtic triumphed 6-2. The most likely scoreline of 3-0 came in the model’s favour, yet the final tally far exceeded expectations. Every suggested pick was addressed: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.7%; Home +2 handicap hit at 97.0%; Under 7.5 missed at 96.8%; Away under 2.5 goals hit at 93.7%; Home over 0.5 goals hit at 93.4%; Under 6.5 missed at 92.5%; Home or Draw hit at 90.8%; and Home +1 handicap hit at 90.8%. The model’s selections largely delivered, confirming its accuracy for this encounter.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Celtic win✓ Hit
75.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
15.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren win✗ Miss
9.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

CelticCeltic

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L12L10W22D21W00D31W02L21W10WH·VFB19/02H·HIB22/02A·VFB26/02A·RAN01/03A·ABE04/03A·RAN08/03H·MOT14/03A·DUN22/03A·DUN05/04H·ST 11/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.401.861.431.561.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.832.000.673.331.000.67
vs Weaker (24)1.921.252.180.911.691.54
Clean sheet %27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ST MirrenST Mirren

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-534L02L05L11D12L21W01L21W20W01LA·KIL11/02A·HIB14/02H·MOT21/02A·LIV28/02A·DUN03/03H·PAR08/03H·RAN15/03A·FAL21/03H·ABE04/04A·CEL11/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.530.931.141.311.88
vs Stronger (12)1.001.501.141.140.802.00
vs Similar (18)1.221.560.711.141.551.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.3%
Under 1.5
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.1%
Under 2.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.9%
Under 3.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.1%
No
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.9%
3-0
9.0%
2-1
8.9%
3-1
8.1%
1-1
7.2%
1-0
6.6%
4-0
6.1%
4-1
5.5%
Celtic goals ↓
ST Mirren goals →
01234
03.3%1.8%1.1%0.3%0.1%
16.6%7.2%2.9%0.9%0.2%
29.9%8.9%4.0%1.2%0.3%
39.0%8.1%3.6%1.1%0.2%
46.1%5.5%2.5%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Celtic goals (down), columns = ST Mirren goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Clachnacuddin
3.00
Formartine United
3.00
Cumnock Juniors
3.00
Aberdeen
2.60
Celtic
2.60
Musselburgh Athletic
2.40
Clydebank
2.40
Jeanfield Swifts
2.33
Dundee North End
2.25
Bo'ness Athletic
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.25
Brechin
2.25
Broxburn Athletic
2.25
Fraserburgh
2.25
ST Mirren
2.00
Ayr Utd
2.00
Stirling
2.00
Banks O' Dee
2.00
Dunfermline
2.00
Livingston
2.00
Lochee United
2.00
Camelon Juniors
2.00
Dundonald Bluebell
2.00
Sauchie Juniors
2.00
Threave Rovers
2.00
Auchinleck Talbot
2.00
East Kilbride
2.00
Airdrie United
2.00
Cowdenbeath
2.00
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
2.00
Cove Rangers
2.00
Hamilton Academical
2.00
Bo'ness United
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Hibernian
2.00
Buckie Thistle
2.00
Queen's Park
1.75
Heart Of Midlothian
1.75
Dunbar United
1.50
Carluke Rovers
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Dalkeith Thistle
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Turriff United
1.50
Caledonian Braves
1.50
Vale of Leithen
1.50
Whitehill Welfare
1.50
Dumbarton
1.50
Peterhead
1.50
Montrose
1.50
Raith Rovers
1.50
Rutherglen Glencairn
1.50
Darvel
1.50
Culter
1.50
Berwick Rangers
1.50
Girvan
1.50
Burntisland Shipyard
1.50
Newtongrange Star
1.50
Tynecastle
1.50
Rangers
1.50
Falkirk
1.50
Stranraer
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Elgin
1.33
Forfar
1.33
Tweedmouth
1.03
Lossiemouth
1.03
Johnstone Burgh
1.03
St Cadoc's
1.03
Partick
1.00
Wick Academy
1.00
Clyde
1.00
Edinburgh City
0.50
Inverurie Loco Works
0.50
Keith
0.50
Huntly
0.50
Morton
0.00
Arbroath
0.00
Kelty Hearts
0.00
Annan Athletic
0.00
Bonnyton Thistle
0.00
Hawick Royal Albert
0.00
Cumbernauld Colts
0.00
Kilmarnock
0.00
Dunipace
0.00
Glasgow University
0.00
Golspie Sutherland
0.00
Albion Rovers
0.00
Lothian Hutchison
0.00
Forres Mechanics
0.00
Nairn County
0.00
Preston Athletic
0.00
East Stirlingshire
0.00
Stirling University
0.00
Tranent Juniors
0.00
Tayport
0.00
Kilwinning Rangers
0.00
Strathspey Thistle
0.00
Deveronvale
0.00
Dundee Utd
0.00
Inverness CT
0.00
Spartans
0.00
Ross County
0.00
St Andrews United
0.00
Rothes
0.00
Gretna 2008
0.00
Creetown
0.00
Glenafton Athletic
0.00
Benburb
0.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
0.00
Edinburgh University
0.00
Easthouses Lily
0.00
Blackburn United
0.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.00
Invergordon
0.00
Penicuik Athletic
0.00
Dalbeattie Star
0.00
Pollok
0.00
Newton Stewart
0.00
Haddington Athletic
0.00
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
0.00
Coldstream
0.00
Motherwell
0.00
Alloa Athletic
0.00
East Fife
0.00
Celtic is 0.60 points better than ST Mirren in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Girvan
5.00
Stirling
4.50
Threave Rovers
4.00
Peterhead
4.00
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
3.67
Camelon Juniors
3.50
Ayr Utd
3.33
Lochee United
3.33
Fraserburgh
3.25
Clachnacuddin
3.00
Celtic
3.00
Cumnock Juniors
3.00
Clydebank
3.00
Tynecastle
3.00
Sauchie Juniors
2.67
Aberdeen
2.60
Stenhousemuir
2.50
Dundee North End
2.50
Montrose
2.50
Culter
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Bo'ness United
2.33
Bo'ness Athletic
2.25
Heart Of Midlothian
2.25
Brechin
2.25
ST Mirren
2.00
Partick
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Formartine United
2.00
Livingston
2.00
Preston Athletic
2.00
East Stirlingshire
2.00
Vale of Leithen
2.00
Jeanfield Swifts
2.00
Dundonald Bluebell
2.00
Deveronvale
2.00
Wick Academy
2.00
Auchinleck Talbot
2.00
Dumbarton
2.00
East Kilbride
2.00
Ross County
2.00
Airdrie United
2.00
Cowdenbeath
2.00
Rutherglen Glencairn
2.00
Glenafton Athletic
2.00
Berwick Rangers
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Newtongrange Star
2.00
Huntly
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Stranraer
2.00
Alloa Athletic
2.00
Queen's Park
1.75
Broxburn Athletic
1.75
Dunfermline
1.67
Hamilton Academical
1.67
Musselburgh Athletic
1.60
Carluke Rovers
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Caledonian Braves
1.50
Darvel
1.50
Burntisland Shipyard
1.50
Tweedmouth
1.44
Lossiemouth
1.44
Johnstone Burgh
1.44
St Cadoc's
1.44
Elgin
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.33
Hibernian
1.33
Buckie Thistle
1.33
Forfar
1.33
Edinburgh City
1.00
Banks O' Dee
1.00
Dunbar United
1.00
Kilmarnock
1.00
Dunipace
1.00
Inverurie Loco Works
1.00
Albion Rovers
1.00
Forres Mechanics
1.00
Nairn County
1.00
Turriff United
1.00
Tayport
1.00
Whitehill Welfare
1.00
Spartans
1.00
Raith Rovers
1.00
Clyde
1.00
Creetown
1.00
Edinburgh University
1.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
1.00
Dalbeattie Star
1.00
Pollok
1.00
Haddington Athletic
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
ST Johnstone
0.75
Dalkeith Thistle
0.50
Keith
0.50
Morton
0.00
Arbroath
0.00
Annan Athletic
0.00
Bonnyton Thistle
0.00
Hawick Royal Albert
0.00
Cumbernauld Colts
0.00
Glasgow University
0.00
Golspie Sutherland
0.00
Lothian Hutchison
0.00
Stirling University
0.00
Tranent Juniors
0.00
Kilwinning Rangers
0.00
Strathspey Thistle
0.00
Dundee Utd
0.00
Inverness CT
0.00
St Andrews United
0.00
Rothes
0.00
Gretna 2008
0.00
Benburb
0.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
0.00
Easthouses Lily
0.00
Blackburn United
0.00
Invergordon
0.00
Penicuik Athletic
0.00
Newton Stewart
0.00
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
0.00
Coldstream
0.00
Motherwell
0.00
East Fife
0.00
Celtic is 1.00 goals better than ST Mirren in terms of goals scored per game (3.00 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Formartine United
0.00
Ayr Utd
0.33
Celtic
0.40
Camelon Juniors
0.50
Newtongrange Star
0.50
Rangers
0.50
Aberdeen
0.60
Banks O' Dee
0.67
Jeanfield Swifts
0.67
Hibernian
0.67
Dundee North End
0.75
Clydebank
0.80
ST Mirren
1.00
Arbroath
1.00
Bonnyton Thistle
1.00
Clachnacuddin
1.00
Carluke Rovers
1.00
Livingston
1.00
Musselburgh Athletic
1.00
Caledonian Braves
1.00
Dundonald Bluebell
1.00
Sauchie Juniors
1.00
Auchinleck Talbot
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.00
Clyde
1.00
Darvel
1.00
Cove Rangers
1.00
Hamilton Academical
1.00
Cumnock Juniors
1.00
Culter
1.00
Dundee
1.00
Blackburn United
1.00
Buckie Thistle
1.00
Penicuik Athletic
1.00
Motherwell
1.00
East Fife
1.00
ST Johnstone
1.25
Heart Of Midlothian
1.25
Dunfermline
1.33
East Kilbride
1.33
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
1.33
Stirling
1.50
Edinburgh City
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Turriff United
1.50
Whitehill Welfare
1.50
Rutherglen Glencairn
1.50
Fraserburgh
1.50
Berwick Rangers
1.50
Girvan
1.50
Tynecastle
1.50
Falkirk
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Airdrie United
1.67
Bo'ness United
1.67
Forfar
1.67
Brechin
1.75
Morton
2.00
Queen's Park
2.00
Partick
2.00
Elgin
2.00
Annan Athletic
2.00
Dunbar United
2.00
Kilmarnock
2.00
Dunipace
2.00
Dalkeith Thistle
2.00
Golspie Sutherland
2.00
Inverurie Loco Works
2.00
Albion Rovers
2.00
Lothian Hutchison
2.00
Forres Mechanics
2.00
Stirling University
2.00
Kilwinning Rangers
2.00
Bo'ness Athletic
2.00
Keith
2.00
Threave Rovers
2.00
Wick Academy
2.00
Inverness CT
2.00
Spartans
2.00
Gretna 2008
2.00
Dalbeattie Star
2.00
Stranraer
2.00
Tweedmouth
2.14
Lossiemouth
2.14
Johnstone Burgh
2.14
St Cadoc's
2.14
Broxburn Athletic
2.25
Cowdenbeath
2.33
Montrose
2.50
Burntisland Shipyard
2.50
Huntly
2.50
Lochee United
2.67
Kelty Hearts
3.00
Cumbernauld Colts
3.00
Nairn County
3.00
Preston Athletic
3.00
East Stirlingshire
3.00
Vale of Leithen
3.00
Tayport
3.00
Peterhead
3.00
Ross County
3.00
Raith Rovers
3.00
Creetown
3.00
Benburb
3.00
Edinburgh University
3.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
3.00
Pollok
3.00
Newton Stewart
3.00
Alloa Athletic
3.00
Dumbarton
3.50
Hawick Royal Albert
4.00
Glasgow University
4.00
Tranent Juniors
4.00
Deveronvale
4.00
Glenafton Athletic
4.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
4.00
Easthouses Lily
4.00
Invergordon
4.00
Haddington Athletic
4.00
Strathspey Thistle
6.00
Coldstream
6.00
St Andrews United
7.00
Rothes
8.00
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
9.00
Celtic is 0.60 goals better than ST Mirren in terms of goals conceded per game (0.40 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

CelticCeltic

For 5.7 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.9

🚩 Corners

200374167236676713111427610513512132012613H·ST A·DUNA·DUNH·MOTA·ABEA·RANA·VFBH·HIBH·VFBA·KIL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.3

🟨 Cards

70221224322121311312347431414H·ST A·DUNA·DUNH·MOTA·ABEA·RANA·VFBH·HIBH·VFBA·KIL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 8.6 · Total 18.9

⚠️ Fouls

2601214137871010121311813687878726201520251919151515H·ST A·DUNA·DUNH·MOTA·ABEA·RANA·VFBH·HIBH·VFBA·KIL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ST MirrenST Mirren

For 4.9 · Against 6.5 · Total 11.4

🚩 Corners

140738547111482747864972101311121291114139A·CELH·ABEA·FALH·RANA·DUNA·LIVH·MOTA·HIBA·KILH·HEA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.1

🟨 Cards

5021321112215331122431335343A·CELH·ABEA·FALH·RANA·DUNA·LIVH·MOTA·HIBA·KILH·HEA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 11.0 · Total 25.4

⚠️ Fouls

29014128151415711131217111761610191019826232918252823262927A·CELH·ABEA·FALH·RANA·DUNA·LIVH·MOTA·HIBA·KILH·HEA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

CelticCeltic

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.011.010.93.43.43.321.620.822.3
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (11)11.29.812.43.44.42.522.021.022.8
vs Weaker (39)10.911.410.43.43.13.621.520.822.1
% over line64%67%61%44%38%50%34%33%35%
% under line36%33%39%56%62%50%66%67%65%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ST MirrenST Mirren

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.210.711.83.13.62.621.821.322.3
vs Stronger (21)11.210.512.43.74.52.421.822.321.0
vs Similar (27)11.211.011.52.82.82.821.819.923.3
vs Weaker (2)---0.00.00.0---
% over line75%76%74%36%56%16%52%48%58%
% under line25%24%26%64%44%84%48%52%42%
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Queen's Park
12.0
ST Mirren
11.2
Morton
11.0
Celtic
11.0
Ross County
10.9
Stirling
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.6
Rangers
10.6
East Kilbride
10.6
Dumbarton
10.5
Hibernian
10.5
Aberdeen
10.5
Elgin
10.3
Partick
10.2
ST Johnstone
10.1
Airdrie United
10.1
Stranraer
10.1
Heart Of Midlothian
10.1
Brechin
10.0
Dundee
10.0
Arbroath
9.9
Livingston
9.9
Annan Athletic
9.8
Kilmarnock
9.7
East Fife
9.7
Falkirk
9.6
Clyde
9.6
Cowdenbeath
9.4
Cove Rangers
9.4
Dunfermline
9.3
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.1
Inverness CT
9.1
Kelty Hearts
9.0
Forfar
8.9
Peterhead
8.8
Motherwell
8.6
Montrose
8.6
Stenhousemuir
8.5

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.2
Peterhead
5.1
Hamilton Academical
5.0
Aberdeen
4.8
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Ayr Utd
4.8
Morton
4.6
Motherwell
4.5
Livingston
4.5
Forfar
4.5
Clyde
4.4
Hibernian
4.4
ST Johnstone
4.4
Elgin
4.3
Partick
4.3
Rangers
4.2
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Kilmarnock
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.2
Falkirk
4.1
Stirling
4.1
Heart Of Midlothian
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.1
Dundee Utd
4.0
Cowdenbeath
3.9
Dunfermline
3.9
East Fife
3.7
Montrose
3.7
Celtic
3.6
ST Mirren
3.5
Dundee
3.5
Brechin
3.5
Dumbarton
3.5
Arbroath
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Inverness CT
3.3
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.6
Motherwell
26.0
Livingston
25.4
Rangers
25.3
Stenhousemuir
25.1
Aberdeen
24.9
Falkirk
24.6
Forfar
24.3
Edinburgh City
24.1
Kilmarnock
23.9
Heart Of Midlothian
23.4
East Fife
23.0
ST Johnstone
22.9
Elgin
22.4
Clyde
22.3
Stranraer
22.3
Hibernian
22.2
Annan Athletic
22.1
Montrose
22.0
Kelty Hearts
22.0
Cowdenbeath
21.9
Morton
21.8
Dundee Utd
21.7
ST Mirren
21.7
Dundee
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Celtic
21.5
Ross County
21.3
Dunfermline
21.3
Stirling
20.8
Cove Rangers
20.8
Arbroath
20.8
Partick
20.5
Brechin
20.4
Dumbarton
20.3
Airdrie United
20.0
Spartans
20.0
Queen's Park
18.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
78.2%
Under 9.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.5%
Under 3.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
48.5%
Under 21.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Celtic or Draw✓ Hit
90.8%
Avg Implied -
75%
16%
9%
covers Celtic + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Celtic or ST Mirren✓ Hit
84.2%
Avg Implied -
75%
16%
9%
covers Celtic + ST Mirren
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or ST Mirren✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
75%
16%
9%
covers Draw + ST Mirren
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Celtic over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
93.4%
Under
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
75.5%
Under
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
51.2%
Under
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
29.1%
Under
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
59.3%
Under
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
22.7%
Under
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Celtic, so a minus line means Celtic give that many goals of a start and ST Mirren receive them. At -1, Celtic must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Celtic win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Celtic)Actual: Celtic
Celtic -2
34.1%
Draw -2
20.9%
ST Mirren +2
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Celtic)Actual: Celtic
Celtic -1
55.0%
Draw -1
20.0%
ST Mirren +1
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Celtic)Actual: Celtic
Celtic +1
90.8%
Draw +1
6.2%
ST Mirren -1
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Celtic)Actual: Celtic
Celtic +2
97.0%
Draw +2
2.3%
ST Mirren -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

CelticCeltic

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L11D10W02L11D00D11D00D10W10WH·VFB19/02H·HIB22/02A·VFB26/02A·RAN01/03A·ABE04/03A·RAN08/03H·MOT14/03A·DUN22/03A·DUN05/04H·ST 11/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.601.000.641.000.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.501.170.671.670.330.67
vs Weaker (24)1.120.461.090.361.150.54
Clean sheet %60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ST MirrenST Mirren

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L01L02L10W01L20W01L11D10W01LA·KIL11/02A·HIB14/02H·MOT21/02A·LIV28/02A·DUN03/03H·PAR08/03H·RAN15/03A·FAL21/03H·ABE04/04A·CEL11/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.600.430.430.560.75
vs Stronger (12)0.250.580.430.570.000.60
vs Similar (18)0.670.610.430.290.820.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Celtic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

CelticCeltic

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L00D20W10W00D20W02L11D00DH·VFB19/02H·HIB22/02A·VFB26/02A·RAN01/03A·ABE04/03A·RAN08/03H·MOT14/03A·DUN22/03A·DUN05/04H·ST 11/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.800.860.790.560.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.330.830.001.670.670.00
vs Weaker (24)0.790.791.090.550.541.00
Clean sheet %47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ST MirrenST Mirren

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D01L03L01L11D01L00D10W10W00DA·KIL11/02A·HIB14/02H·MOT21/02A·LIV28/02A·DUN03/03H·PAR08/03H·RAN15/03A·FAL21/03H·ABE04/04A·CEL11/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.930.500.710.751.12
vs Stronger (12)0.750.920.710.570.801.40
vs Similar (18)0.560.940.290.860.731.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Celtic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Away under 3.5 goals98.7%-------✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap97.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 7.596.8%-------✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals93.7%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals93.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.592.5%-------✗ Miss
Home or Draw90.8%-------✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap90.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.588.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners86.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards86.3%-------✓ Hit
Home or Away84.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.584.1%-------✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls80.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners78.2%-------✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals77.3%-------✗ Miss
Home over 1.5 goals75.5%-------✓ Hit
Home win75.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards73.3%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals70.9%-------✗ Miss
Under 4.570.2%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.570.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (34)
€154m
RAN (25)
€127m
HOM (33)
€33m
HIB (31)
€30m
ABE (35)
€24m
MOT (28)
€21m
KIL (33)
€13m
DUN (30)
€12m
SM (26)
€8m
FAL (26)
€7m
LIV (29)
€6m
DUN (31)
€6m
SJ (26)
€5m
PAR (22)
€3m
RC (26)
€2m
MOR (26)
€2m
ARB (25)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Celtic's squad is €146m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€154m vs €8m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (9)
€59m
CEL (12)
€55m
HOM (12)
€19m
HIB (10)
€14m
MOT (10)
€12m
ABE (11)
€10m
KIL (12)
€5m
DUN (10)
€3m
SJ (9)
€3m
SM (9)
€3m
DUN (11)
€2m
FAL (10)
€2m
LIV (12)
€2m
RC (9)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
ARB (5)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Celtic's attack is €53m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€55m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (6)
€38m
RAN (6)
€28m
HIB (8)
€10m
HOM (8)
€9m
ABE (10)
€5m
DUN (8)
€5m
MOT (8)
€4m
SM (7)
€3m
KIL (6)
€3m
LIV (8)
€3m
FAL (5)
€2m
PAR (7)
€1m
SJ (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
MOR (9)
€1m
ARB (8)
€1m
RC (5)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
Celtic's midfield is €35m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€38m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (16)
€60m
RAN (10)
€40m
ABE (14)
€8m
HIB (13)
€6m
MOT (10)
€6m
HOM (13)
€5m
KIL (15)
€5m
DUN (11)
€5m
FAL (11)
€3m
SM (10)
€2m
DUN (14)
€2m
LIV (9)
€2m
SJ (10)
€2m
PAR (9)
€1m
RC (12)
€1m
MOR (9)
€1m
ARB (12)
€1m
MON (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Celtic's defence is €58m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€60m vs €2m).

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
6
CEL wins
1
Draws
1
SM wins

Head-to-head

Celtic vs ST Mirren · H/A from CEL
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26HCEL Vs ST Mirren1-0
14/12/25AST Mirren Vs CEL3-1
22/11/25AST Mirren Vs CEL0-1
03/08/25HCEL Vs ST Mirren1-0
17/05/25HCEL Vs ST Mirren1-1
01/03/25AST Mirren Vs CEL2-5
05/01/25HCEL Vs ST Mirren3-0
25/08/24AST Mirren Vs CEL0-3

CelticCeltic

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26HCEL Vs ST Mirren1-0
05/04/26ADundee Vs CEL1-2
22/03/26ADundee Utd Vs CEL2-0
14/03/26HCEL Vs Motherwell3-1
08/03/26ARangers Vs CEL0-0
04/03/26AAberdeen Vs CEL1-2
01/03/26ARangers Vs CEL2-2
26/02/26AVfB Stuttgart Vs CEL0-1
22/02/26HCEL Vs Hibernian1-2
19/02/26HCEL Vs VfB Stuttgart1-4

ST MirrenST Mirren

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26ACeltic Vs SM1-0
04/04/26HSM Vs Aberdeen2-0
21/03/26AFalkirk Vs SM1-2
15/03/26HSM Vs Rangers0-1
08/03/26HSM Vs Partick2-1
03/03/26ADundee Utd Vs SM2-1
28/02/26ALivingston Vs SM1-1
21/02/26HSM Vs Motherwell0-5
14/02/26AHibernian Vs SM2-0
11/02/26AKilmarnock Vs SM4-3

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Celtic
Celtic
Scotland: FA Cup
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWW1.86
HomeWLLWW2.08
AwayDWDLW1.65
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%67%46%
AVG goals2.943.172.73
Over 1.5 %80%83%77%
Over 2.5 %66%75%58%
Over 3.5 %42%46%38%
Scored1.742.041.46
Conceded1.201.121.27
BTTS56%54%58%
Clean Sheet34%38%31%
Corners10.9511.0510.87
Cards3.573.523.62
ST Mirren
ST Mirren
Scotland: FA Cup
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.34
HomeWLWLW1.64
AwayLDLWL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%44%24%
AVG goals2.642.482.80
Over 1.5 %74%60%88%
Over 2.5 %44%40%48%
Over 3.5 %26%28%24%
Scored1.301.361.24
Conceded1.341.121.56
BTTS54%40%68%
Clean Sheet22%36%8%
Corners11.2510.7111.84
Cards3.483.873.05

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CelticCeltic3882
68%
2.2
7341+32
3.0
82%
68%
42%
10.6
61%
4.1
55%
21.8
37%
154
5538601.91.1
66%
2Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian3880
63%
2.1
6734+33
2.7
71%
53%
29%
10.1
63%
4.7
63%
24.3
61%
33
19951.80.9
53%
3RangersRangers3872
53%
1.9
7643+33
3.1
82%
61%
37%
10.6
63%
4.2
58%
25.5
76%
127
5928402.01.1
58%
4MotherwellMotherwell3861
42%
1.6
5936+23
2.5
76%
39%
29%
8.1
32%
4.9
71%
26.3
79%
21
12461.60.9
58%
5HibernianHibernian3857
39%
1.5
5844+14
2.7
76%
55%
29%
10.6
68%
4.4
61%
23.2
66%
30
141061.51.2
47%
6FalkirkFalkirk3849
37%
1.3
5062-12
2.9
74%
58%
34%
9.6
53%
4.2
63%
25.3
76%
7
2231.31.6
51%
7Dundee UtdDundee Utd3845
26%
1.2
4960-11
2.9
89%
50%
34%
10.0
55%
4.2
61%
22.8
53%
0
0001.31.6
42%
8DundeeDundee3842
29%
1.1
4261-19
2.7
71%
58%
34%
9.5
61%
3.7
51%
22.9
55%
12
2551.11.6
44%
9AberdeenAberdeen3840
29%
1.1
4055-15
2.5
74%
34%
24%
10.0
58%
4.9
69%
26.4
95%
24
10581.11.4
48%
10KilmarnockKilmarnock3840
26%
1.1
5068-18
3.1
84%
66%
42%
9.7
53%
4.5
71%
25.0
74%
13
5351.31.8
42%
11ST MirrenST Mirren4038
22%
0.9
3256-24
2.2
68%
30%
15%
11.1
71%
3.3
38%
22.3
58%
8
3320.81.4
46%
12LivingstonLivingston3821
5%
0.6
4075-35
3.0
84%
63%
39%
10.4
58%
4.2
65%
25.2
71%
6
2321.12.0
45%
13PartickPartick45
25%
1.2
44+0
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
3.5
50%
-
0%
3
1111.01.0
-
14DunfermlineDunfermline45
25%
1.2
33+0
1.5
50%
25%
0%
9.0
50%
6.0
100%
22.5
100%
6
3120.80.8
50%
15ArbroathArbroath21
0%
0.5
01-1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
9.0
50%
6.0
100%
22.5
100%
1
0110.00.5
50%
Scotland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →

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