Cesena, coming off a defeat, faces Sampdoria in a match that heavily favors the home win. Cesena's recent form has been inconsistent, with a last five-game stretch of LDDLL, while Sampdoria has also struggled, losing their last two matches. The expected total goals stands at 2.6, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring 13.6% of the time.
Cesena's home form is respectable, scoring an average of 1.47 goals and conceding 1.4 against similar opponents. Sampdoria's away form is weaker, scoring 0.69 goals and conceding 1.31 against similar opponents.
The model suggests Over 21.5 fouls (90.9%), Over 1.5 (75.1%), and Under 3.5 (72.9%) as its selections. Cesena is favored to win with a 42% probability, while the draw has a 28% chance and Sampdoria a 30% chance of winning.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Cesena, failed to deliver a win, and the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. The model had given Cesena a 42 % chance of victory, yet the result was a stalemate. The upset was highlighted by the fact that both sides were coming off draws, with Cesena’s recent form marked as “coming off a draw” and Sampdoria’s also “coming off a draw.” Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.5 %, Under 6.5 hit at 98.3 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.3 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.5 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.0 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.8 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.6 %, and Over 19.5 fouls hit at 95.8 %. All predictions were correct, underscoring the model’s strength in total-goals and foul-count markets even when the favourite faltered.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cesena win✗ Miss
42.3%
Avg Implied 37.1% · @ 2.52
Edge
+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Bet365
2.55
Draw✓ Hit
28.9%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.17
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.30
Dafabet
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Unibet
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Sampdoria win✗ Miss
28.8%
Avg Implied 33.4% · @ 2.80
Edge
-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.90
Dafabet
2.85
Superbet
2.85
Betano
2.85
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cesena
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.50
1.56
1.56
0.50
1.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.07
1.50
1.56
1.56
0.50
1.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sampdoria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.17
1.13
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.90
1.17
1.13
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cesena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.5%
@ 1.31+2.1%
Under 1.5
26.5%
@ 3.27-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Under
Pinnacle
3.41
Betfair
3.40
Superbet
3.40
Betano
3.35
10Bet
3.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.9%
@ 2.00-0.2%
Under 2.5
53.1%
@ 1.78+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.09
Bet365
2.05
SBO
2.05
Superbet
2.02
888Sport
2.00
Under
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Superbet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.3%
@ 3.45-1.8%
Under 3.5
74.7%
@ 1.28+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Superbet
3.50
888Sport
3.50
Under
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.6%
@ 1.73-1.0%
No
47.4%
@ 2.00+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
BetVictor
1.75
William Hil
1.75
No
Betfair
2.15
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.01
William Hil
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.8%@ 5.68+5.9%
1-0
9.8%@ 7.80+4.1%
0-0
9.1%@ 8.64+3.9%
2-1
8.9%@ 9.16+4.0%
2-0
7.9%@ 12.07+4.2%
0-1
7.6%@ 7.99+2.0%
1-2
7.1%@ 9.36+2.3%
2-2
5.0%@ 12.24+1.4%
Cesena goals ↓
Sampdoria goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
7.6%
5.0%
1.9%
0.5%
1
9.8%
14%
7.1%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.9%
8.9%
5.0%
1.9%
0.5%
3
3.7%
4.2%
2.4%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.3%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cesena goals (down), columns = Sampdoria goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Palermo
1.88
Hellas Verona
1.82
Pisa
1.72
Catanzaro
1.58
Cremonese
1.54
Modena
1.41
Juve Stabia
1.34
Avellino
1.26
Padova
1.21
Cesena
1.21
Mantova
1.21
Arezzo
1.19
Benevento
1.17
Vicenza Virtus
1.16
Sampdoria
1.16
Carrarese
1.16
Ascoli
1.15
Virtus Entella
1.11
Empoli
1.08
Sudtirol
1.07
Cesena is 0.05 points better than Sampdoria in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hellas Verona
1.73
Catanzaro
1.63
Pisa
1.63
Palermo
1.57
Cremonese
1.46
Modena
1.26
Empoli
1.24
Carrarese
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Mantova
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.17
Arezzo
1.13
Benevento
1.11
Avellino
1.10
Vicenza Virtus
1.10
Ascoli
1.09
Padova
1.03
Sudtirol
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.95
Sampdoria
0.92
Cesena is 0.26 goals better than Sampdoria in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 0.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Palermo
0.90
Hellas Verona
0.94
Modena
0.95
Pisa
1.00
Cremonese
1.11
Juve Stabia
1.20
Sudtirol
1.20
Sampdoria
1.26
Catanzaro
1.28
Padova
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.34
Carrarese
1.37
Empoli
1.42
Arezzo
1.43
Benevento
1.46
Vicenza Virtus
1.47
Cesena
1.47
Avellino
1.49
Ascoli
1.49
Mantova
1.50
Cesena is 0.21 goals worse than Sampdoria in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Mantova
57%
Catanzaro
54%
Juve Stabia
53%
Sampdoria
51%
Carrarese
51%
Modena
50%
Avellino
50%
Cesena
50%
Palermo
49%
Empoli
48%
Padova
48%
Virtus Entella
46%
Sudtirol
41%
Cesena is 0.6 percentage points worse than Sampdoria in terms of average possession (50% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cesena
For 4.3 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 13.3 · Total 26.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sampdoria
For 5.6 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 19.3 · Total 33.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cesena
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.9
8.8
4.1
4.4
3.8
26.2
25.6
26.9
vs Stronger (1)
11.0
11.0
-
2.0
2.0
-
23.0
23.0
-
vs Similar (46)
9.4
9.8
8.9
4.2
4.5
3.8
26.1
25.7
26.5
vs Weaker (3)
8.7
11.0
7.5
4.7
5.0
4.5
29.3
25.0
31.5
% over line
46%
56%
36%
60%
68%
52%
86%
84%
88%
% under line
54%
44%
64%
40%
32%
48%
14%
16%
12%
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sampdoria
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.4
8.9
4.9
5.1
4.6
32.8
34.5
31.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
9.3
9.6
8.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
32.7
34.3
31.1
vs Weaker (3)
7.0
7.0
-
5.3
8.0
0.0
36.5
36.5
-
% over line
43%
44%
42%
70%
64%
76%
94%
96%
92%
% under line
57%
56%
58%
30%
36%
24%
6%
4%
8%
This opponent (Cesena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Benevento
11.0
Vicenza Virtus
10.5
Carrarese
10.3
Padova
10.1
Virtus Entella
10.0
Empoli
9.4
Mantova
9.4
Palermo
9.4
Cesena
9.4
Ascoli
9.3
Sampdoria
9.2
Juve Stabia
9.0
Modena
9.0
Avellino
9.0
Cremonese
9.0
Catanzaro
8.9
Hellas Verona
8.7
Sudtirol
8.5
Pisa
8.3
Arezzo
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ascoli
5.6
Vicenza Virtus
5.6
Carrarese
5.1
Mantova
5.1
Sampdoria
5.1
Catanzaro
4.9
Palermo
4.9
Avellino
4.8
Juve Stabia
4.8
Padova
4.8
Modena
4.7
Benevento
4.6
Empoli
4.5
Sudtirol
4.4
Virtus Entella
4.3
Cesena
4.1
Cremonese
4.1
Hellas Verona
4.1
Pisa
4.0
Arezzo
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
33.0
Sampdoria
32.8
Ascoli
32.6
Avellino
31.0
Sudtirol
30.8
Catanzaro
30.8
Juve Stabia
30.2
Vicenza Virtus
29.9
Virtus Entella
29.9
Empoli
29.6
Padova
29.2
Modena
28.7
Carrarese
28.4
Benevento
28.4
Palermo
28.3
Cremonese
28.0
Cesena
26.2
Hellas Verona
25.8
Pisa
25.2
Arezzo
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
46.0%
@ 1.90-2.9%
Under 9.5
54.0%
@ 1.82+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.87
Under
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.1%
@ 1.28-2.7%
Under 3.5
32.9%
@ 2.95+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.28
Under
Superbet
2.95
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
90.6%
Under 21.5
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cesena or Draw✓ Hit
71.3%
Avg Implied 66.7% · @ 1.40
Edge
+4.6%
42%
29%
29%
covers Cesena + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Cesena or Sampdoria✗ Miss
71.5%
Avg Implied 70.6% · @ 1.32
Edge
+0.9%
42%
29%
29%
covers Cesena + Sampdoria
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.33
Draw or Sampdoria✓ Hit
57.3%
Avg Implied 62.7% · @ 1.49
Edge
-5.5%
42%
29%
29%
covers Draw + Sampdoria
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.53
888Sport
1.53
Superbet
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cesena over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.6%
@ 1.28+4.2%
Under
23.4%
@ 3.35-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.30
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.35
Superbet
3.35
Cesena over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
42.5%
@ 2.42+4.0%
Under
57.5%
@ 1.51-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.58
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Superbet
2.42
BetVictor
2.40
Under
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
Superbet
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
Cesena over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.9%
@ 5.62+1.4%
Under
82.1%
@ 1.11-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
888Sport
5.75
1xBet
5.70
BetVictor
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Cesena over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.0%
@ 13.94-0.9%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.02+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
888Sport
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Sampdoria over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.4%
@ 1.32-1.8%
Under
31.6%
@ 3.10+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.34
888Sport
1.33
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.26
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Betano
3.15
Marathonbet
3.14
Sampdoria over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.9%
@ 2.60-3.8%
Under
68.1%
@ 1.45+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.79
888Sport
2.70
Unibet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Sampdoria over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 6.26-3.9%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.09+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
7.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.10
Under
Betano
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Sampdoria over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 16.62-2.8%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.02+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
21.00
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cesena, so a minus line means Cesena give that many goals of a start and Sampdoria receive them. At -1, Cesena must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cesena win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cesena)Actual: Sampdoria
Cesena -2
8.2%
@ 11.18+0.3%
Draw -2
13.2%
@ 6.77+0.0%
Sampdoria +2
78.6%
@ 1.13-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
6.70
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
4.90
Away
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Handicap -1 (Cesena)Actual: Sampdoria
Cesena -1
21.4%
@ 5.12+3.9%
Draw -1
21.4%
@ 4.05-0.8%
Sampdoria +1
57.3%
@ 1.49-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Superbet
4.80
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Away
Unibet
1.53
Superbet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
Handicap +1 (Cesena)Actual: Cesena
Cesena +1
71.3%
@ 1.40+7.4%
Draw +1
16.7%
@ 4.33-4.0%
Sampdoria -1
12.0%
@ 5.83-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Superbet
4.35
Unibet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
Away
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.50
Handicap +2 (Cesena)Actual: Cesena
Cesena +2
88.0%
@ 1.09+4.4%
Draw +2
8.3%
@ 8.50-2.5%
Sampdoria -2
3.8%
@ 16.00-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.00
Away
Betfair
17.00
Bet365
15.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cesena
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.75
0.88
0.29
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.53
0.73
0.75
0.88
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sampdoria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.47
0.40
0.53
0.13
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.27
0.47
0.40
0.53
0.13
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Cesena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
65.4%
@ 1.41-0.7%
Under 0.5
34.6%
@ 2.74+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
BetVictor
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.82
William Hil
2.80
10Bet
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
29.2%
@ 2.90-2.9%
Under 1.5
70.8%
@ 1.37+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.03
Bet365
3.00
Betano
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.90
Under
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
10Bet
1.38
BetVictor
1.38
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.5%
@ 7.56-1.8%
Under 2.5
89.5%
@ 1.06+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
William Hil
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cesena over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.4%
@ 2.08-0.3%
Under
55.6%
@ 1.68+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
Under
Pinnacle
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Superbet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Cesena over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.2%
@ 6.58-1.9%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.08+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.90
Marathonbet
6.90
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
6.40
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Cesena over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 19.00-1.8%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.01+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Sampdoria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.8%
@ 2.19-1.6%
Under
59.2%
@ 1.61+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.28
Betano
2.20
Unibet
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.16
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
Sampdoria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.9%
@ 7.10-3.2%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.07+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.50
1xBet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Sampdoria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 18.75-3.4%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cesena
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.81
0.69
0.21
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.53
0.77
0.81
0.69
0.21
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sampdoria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.73
0.47
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.70
0.73
0.47
0.53
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Cesena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.6%
@ 1.25+0.8%
Under 0.5
24.4%
@ 3.68-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Betano
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
1xBet
3.66
Marathonbet
3.66
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.9%
@ 2.17-2.1%
Under 1.5
59.1%
@ 1.64+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Bet365
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Betano
2.12
Under
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Superbet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.2%
@ 4.70-4.7%
Under 2.5
84.8%
@ 1.17+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Superbet
4.85
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cesena over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
51.0%
@ 1.75-2.0%
Under
49.0%
@ 1.97+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Under
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Superbet
1.92
Cesena over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.4%
@ 4.70-3.4%
Under
83.6%
@ 1.16+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
Superbet
4.80
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Cesena over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 12.50-4.2%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Sampdoria over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.5%
@ 1.81-5.8%
Under
54.5%
@ 1.90+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.85
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Under
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.89
Superbet
1.87
Sampdoria over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 5.04-6.3%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.14+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.15
Superbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
Betano
4.70
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Sampdoria over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 13.25-4.7%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.02+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.1%
1.02
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.1%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.08
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.0%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.7%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
888Sport
1.08
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.8%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.6%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
82.1%
1.11
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
78.6%
1.13
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.7%
1.29
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
+5.7%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
76.6%
1.28
Pinnacle
1.30
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.29
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.6%
1.25
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.7%
1.28
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.5%
1.31
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.32
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.5%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.33
+0.9%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
71.3%
1.40
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
71.3%
1.40
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.8%
1.37
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
10Bet
1.38
BetVictor
1.38
+2.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cesena
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cristian Shpendi67%
Antonio Fiori33%
Dimitri Bisoli0%
Alessandro Siano0%
Andrea Ciofi0%
Matteo Francesconi0%
Riccardo Pagano0%
Mihajlo Ilić0%
Matteo Guidi0%
Alessandro Debenedetti0%
Xavello Druiventak0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Cristian Shpendi67%
Matteo Guidi33%
Dimitri Bisoli0%
Alessandro Siano0%
Andrea Ciofi0%
Matteo Francesconi0%
Riccardo Pagano0%
Mihajlo Ilić0%
Antonio Fiori0%
Alessandro Debenedetti0%
Xavello Druiventak0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matteo Guidi33%
Xavello Druiventak33%
Dimitri Bisoli0%
Alessandro Siano0%
Andrea Ciofi0%
Matteo Francesconi0%
Cristian Shpendi0%
Riccardo Pagano0%
Mihajlo Ilić0%
Antonio Fiori0%
Alessandro Debenedetti0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dimitri Bisoli0%
Alessandro Siano0%
Andrea Ciofi0%
Matteo Francesconi0%
Cristian Shpendi0%
Riccardo Pagano0%
Mihajlo Ilić0%
Antonio Fiori0%
Matteo Guidi0%
Alessandro Debenedetti0%
Xavello Druiventak0%
Sampdoria
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Liam Henderson33%
Gennaro Tutino33%
Danel Sinani0%
Stefan Gartenmann0%
Peter Vindahl0%
Alessandro Di Pardo0%
Salvatore Esposito0%
Manuel Cicconi0%
Mattia Viti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Manuel Cicconi67%
Liam Henderson33%
Danel Sinani0%
Stefan Gartenmann0%
Peter Vindahl0%
Gennaro Tutino0%
Alessandro Di Pardo0%
Salvatore Esposito0%
Mattia Viti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stefan Gartenmann33%
Danel Sinani0%
Peter Vindahl0%
Liam Henderson0%
Gennaro Tutino0%
Alessandro Di Pardo0%
Salvatore Esposito0%
Manuel Cicconi0%
Mattia Viti0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Danel Sinani33%
Liam Henderson33%
Stefan Gartenmann0%
Peter Vindahl0%
Gennaro Tutino0%
Alessandro Di Pardo0%
Salvatore Esposito0%
Manuel Cicconi0%
Mattia Viti0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (36)
€71m
HV (34)
€57m
PAL (27)
€54m
CRE (30)
€49m
SAM (27)
€37m
MOD (28)
€31m
CES (32)
€28m
AVE (27)
€26m
PAD (31)
€25m
MAN (32)
€24m
SUD (27)
€21m
CAT (30)
€21m
EMP (27)
€20m
CAR (22)
€15m
JS (33)
€13m
ARE (32)
€13m
BEN (30)
€12m
VV (26)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
Cesena's squad is €10m less valuable than Sampdoria's (€28m vs €37m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (13)
€24m
PAL (7)
€23m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
CRE (7)
€12m
MAN (12)
€12m
CAT (15)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
CES (10)
€10m
MOD (9)
€7m
PAD (9)
€6m
AVE (10)
€6m
CAR (5)
€5m
ASC (11)
€5m
ARE (10)
€4m
BEN (8)
€4m
VE (7)
€3m
SUD (5)
€3m
VV (6)
€2m
JS (8)
€2m
Cesena's attack is €3m less valuable than Sampdoria's (€10m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (9)
€26m
CRE (10)
€15m
HV (9)
€14m
PAL (7)
€12m
MOD (9)
€11m
SUD (10)
€11m
AVE (6)
€9m
SAM (6)
€7m
PAD (9)
€7m
MAN (10)
€6m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
CES (9)
€5m
VV (12)
€5m
JS (11)
€5m
BEN (9)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
CAR (7)
€2m
ARE (6)
€2m
CAT (2)
€2m
Cesena's midfield is €2m less valuable than Sampdoria's (€5m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HV (15)
€30m
CRE (13)
€22m
PIS (14)
€22m
PAL (13)
€19m
SAM (14)
€17m
MOD (10)
€12m
CES (13)
€12m
PAD (13)
€12m
AVE (11)
€11m
CAT (13)
€8m
SUD (12)
€8m
CAR (10)
€8m
MAN (10)
€7m
ARE (16)
€6m
JS (14)
€6m
BEN (13)
€5m
EMP (9)
€4m
VV (8)
€4m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Cesena's defence is €5m less valuable than Sampdoria's (€12m vs €17m).
Italy: Serie B 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Modena
Mantova
Palermo
Ascoli
Sudtirol
Padova
Avellino
Arezzo
Pisa
Juve Stabia
Empoli
Vicenza Virtus
Carrarese
Benevento
Hellas Verona
Catanzaro
Virtus Entella
Cremonese