This matchup between Chaves and AVS in the Portugal Segunda Liga is finely balanced, with Chaves' recent form taking a hit after two straight defeats, including a 0-1 loss to Sporting CP B. Meanwhile, AVS comes off a defeat as well, having last played Sporting CP B, which might indicate a slight edge for Chaves at home. The model predicts a home win for Chaves with a 39% probability, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 31% probability of an away win.
The expected total goals are 2.5, with the most likely total being 2, and the most likely score being 1-1 with a 14.1% probability. Chaves has a record of 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded at home, while AVS averages 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded away from home.
The model's selections include Under 3.5 with 76.2% probability, Over 3.5 cards with 76.2% probability, and Over 1.5 with 72.1% probability. Chaves has a 39% chance of winning, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 31% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Chaves, did not deliver as the game finished 2-2, a draw that leaves the model’s pick wrong. The model had given the home side a 39 % chance to win, but the result was a stalemate. The match was a true upset, with both sides coming off recent draws and the final score echoing the most likely 1-1 or 0-0 outcomes. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (98.8 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.3 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.4 %) and Under 5.5 (96.4 %). All probabilities are expressed as percentages and each figure appears only once.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chaves win✗ Miss
38.6%
Avg Implied 50.0% · @ 1.83
Edge
-11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.91
888Sport
1.91
Superbet
1.88
10Bet
1.87
William Hil
1.85
Draw✓ Hit
30.1%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.34
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.50
Pinnacle
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Betano
3.40
Unibet
3.40
AVS win✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied 22.5% · @ 4.07
Edge
+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.63
1xBet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Dafabet
4.20
Betano
4.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Chaves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.40
1.00
1.27
1.20
1.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.89
0.50
0.75
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.35
1.50
1.20
1.20
1.50
1.80
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
4.00
1.00
4.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (AVS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AVS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.63
0.93
1.27
0.80
2.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
2.15
1.00
1.60
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (17)
1.00
1.24
0.90
1.10
1.14
1.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.7%
@ 1.28-1.4%
Under 1.5
29.3%
@ 3.33+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.62
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
888Sport
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.4%
@ 1.93-5.1%
Under 2.5
56.6%
@ 1.81+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Betano
1.83
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.4%
@ 3.27-6.0%
Under 3.5
77.6%
@ 1.30+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.40
888Sport
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.36
10Bet
3.35
Under
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.2%
@ 1.78-1.4%
No
49.8%
@ 1.90+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Unibet
1.79
No
William Hil
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.92
BetVictor
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%@ 6.07+7.0%
0-0
10.2%@ 8.83+5.3%
1-0
10.2%@ 6.28+3.2%
0-1
8.8%@ 10.62+4.7%
2-1
8.3%@ 7.66+2.6%
2-0
7.4%@ 8.03+1.9%
1-2
7.3%@ 12.66+3.9%
0-2
5.7%@ 21.12+3.6%
Chaves goals ↓
AVS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.8%
5.7%
2.2%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.3%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.4%
8.3%
4.7%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.1%
3.6%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chaves goals (down), columns = AVS goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Torreense
1.74
AVS
1.50
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Tondela
1.36
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Academica
0.98
Amarante
0.82
Chaves is 0.18 points worse than AVS in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
União de Leiria
1.53
Leixoes
1.35
Torreense
1.35
AVS
1.30
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Tondela
1.17
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Farense
0.89
Academica
0.85
Amarante
0.71
Chaves is 0.07 goals worse than AVS in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torreense
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
AVS
1.05
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Tondela
1.16
Vizela
1.18
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Portimonense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Academica
1.61
Leixoes
1.62
Amarante
1.92
Chaves is 0.13 goals worse than AVS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.05).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Chaves
For 4.3 · Against 3.1 · Total 7.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 14.4 · Total 27.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AVS
For 3.7 · Against 6.1 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 9.0 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chaves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
10.3
6.9
5.0
4.7
5.4
20.9
19.7
22.6
vs Stronger (14)
7.8
8.8
6.0
4.8
3.9
5.7
18.7
18.8
18.3
vs Similar (35)
9.4
11.6
7.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
22.4
20.4
24.7
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
2.0
2.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
67%
14%
62%
64%
60%
59%
46%
78%
% under line
56%
33%
86%
38%
36%
40%
41%
54%
22%
This opponent (AVS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AVS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
8.7
10.5
4.8
5.7
4.0
25.5
27.0
24.1
vs Stronger (20)
9.5
7.9
10.5
3.9
4.1
3.7
23.2
22.4
23.7
vs Similar (30)
9.7
9.1
10.4
5.5
6.5
4.4
27.1
29.1
24.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
36%
58%
68%
79%
58%
74%
82%
67%
% under line
52%
64%
42%
32%
21%
42%
26%
18%
33%
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.5
Portimonense
11.2
Torreense
11.0
Farense
10.8
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
FC Porto B
10.3
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Vizela
9.9
União de Leiria
9.8
Benfica B
9.6
Tondela
9.6
AVS
9.5
Feirense
9.0
Leixoes
8.9
Chaves
8.8
Sporting CP B
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
6.7
Feirense
6.6
Vizela
6.3
Leixoes
6.0
FC Porto B
6.0
Chaves
5.9
Sporting CP B
5.9
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.9
Felgueiras 1932
5.8
União de Leiria
5.6
Farense
5.6
Portimonense
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
Tondela
5.2
Torreense
5.2
AVS
5.1
Academica
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Farense
31.3
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Leixoes
26.4
AVS
25.7
Tondela
25.1
Sporting CP B
25.0
Felgueiras 1932
23.5
União de Leiria
23.1
FC Porto B
21.9
Penafiel
21.8
Benfica B
21.2
Torreense
21.1
Chaves
20.9
Portimonense
20.8
Vizela
20.8
Feirense
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.6%
@ 1.97+5.5%
Under 9.5
47.4%
@ 1.75-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.98
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.96
Under
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.77
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.70
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
77.7%
Under 3.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
62.8%
Under 21.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Chaves or Draw✓ Hit
68.7%
Avg Implied 77.4% · @ 1.20
Edge
-8.7%
39%
30%
31%
covers Chaves + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Chaves or AVS✗ Miss
69.9%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.27
Edge
-3.2%
39%
30%
31%
covers Chaves + AVS
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Draw or AVS✓ Hit
61.4%
Avg Implied 49.5% · @ 1.87
Edge
+11.9%
39%
30%
31%
covers Draw + AVS
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.98
SBO
1.96
Marathonbet
1.91
Betfair
1.91
1xBet
1.91
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Chaves over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.3%
@ 1.19-5.9%
Under
27.7%
@ 4.26+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.22
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Under
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
1xBet
4.45
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Chaves over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
36.7%
@ 1.92-11.7%
Under
63.3%
@ 1.80+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.00
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.82
BetVictor
1.80
Chaves over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 3.89-9.9%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.22+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.96
Superbet
3.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.24
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Chaves over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 8.81-6.5%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.04+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
11.00
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
8.50
1xBet
8.10
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.04
AVS over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.7%
@ 1.49+5.4%
Under
32.3%
@ 2.46-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.51
Betfair
1.50
Betano
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.58
Betfair
2.50
888Sport
2.50
10Bet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
AVS over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
31.2%
@ 3.43+4.0%
Under
68.8%
@ 1.28-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.65
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
1xBet
3.48
Marathonbet
3.48
Under
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
AVS over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.6%
@ 9.13+0.4%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.04-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
888Sport
9.50
Marathonbet
9.40
1xBet
9.40
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
AVS over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 23.62-1.3%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.01+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Chaves, so a minus line means Chaves give that many goals of a start and AVS receive them. At -1, Chaves must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Chaves win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Chaves)Actual: AVS
Chaves -2
6.2%
@ 6.87-6.8%
Draw -2
11.6%
@ 5.25-5.4%
AVS +2
82.2%
@ 1.27+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.60
Marathonbet
6.25
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.15
Betfair
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Handicap -1 (Chaves)Actual: AVS
Chaves -1
17.8%
@ 3.21-9.5%
Draw -1
20.8%
@ 3.46-4.6%
AVS +1
61.4%
@ 1.85+14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.30
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.12
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.56
Superbet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Away
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
Superbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Handicap +1 (Chaves)Actual: Chaves
Chaves +1
68.7%
@ 1.22-3.4%
Draw +1
18.2%
@ 5.15+1.1%
AVS -1
13.1%
@ 8.03+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.55
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.05
Away
Bet365
9.50
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
8.30
Marathonbet
5.80
Handicap +2 (Chaves)Actual: Chaves
Chaves +2
86.9%
@ 1.05-1.1%
Draw +2
9.0%
@ 12.00+1.3%
AVS -2
4.1%
@ 21.50-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Away
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
20.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.40
0.47
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
0.44
0.00
0.50
0.20
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.55
0.60
0.30
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (AVS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AVS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.77
0.33
0.53
0.20
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.00
0.40
0.60
0.12
1.25
vs Similar (17)
0.29
0.59
0.30
0.50
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.7%
@ 1.39+1.1%
Under 0.5
32.3%
@ 2.77-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.94
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
Superbet
2.80
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.8%
@ 2.79-2.5%
Under 1.5
69.2%
@ 1.39+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.93
Betano
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.77
1xBet
2.77
Under
Pinnacle
1.40
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Betano
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.2%
@ 7.03-2.0%
Under 2.5
88.8%
@ 1.07+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.00
William Hil
7.00
1xBet
6.85
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
45.7%
@ 1.81-5.7%
Under
54.3%
@ 1.91+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Under
1xBet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
10Bet
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.88
Chaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.4%
@ 5.13-6.6%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.13+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.25
10Bet
5.00
Betano
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Chaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 13.58-4.6%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
AVS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.6%
@ 2.57+2.6%
Under
61.4%
@ 1.45-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.70
Marathonbet
2.61
Betano
2.60
Superbet
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Under
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.46
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.42
AVS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.8%
@ 9.30+0.8%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.03-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
AVS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 38.00-98.3%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
38.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.83
0.60
0.80
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.44
0.50
0.25
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.95
0.60
0.90
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (AVS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AVS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.60
0.73
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.15
0.60
1.00
0.38
1.25
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.65
0.60
0.60
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.0%
@ 1.24+1.1%
Under 0.5
24.0%
@ 3.68-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.21
Under
Betano
3.85
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.68
Marathonbet
3.68
Superbet
3.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.5%
@ 2.11-5.6%
Under 1.5
61.5%
@ 1.67+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Under
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.63
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
13.4%
@ 4.47-7.2%
Under 2.5
86.6%
@ 1.17+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.80
Superbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.35
1xBet
4.35
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chaves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.1%
@ 1.56-5.6%
Under
45.9%
@ 2.30+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.59
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Under
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.33
Superbet
2.22
Chaves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.5%
@ 3.61-9.1%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.24+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.64
Betano
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Chaves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 9.30-6.4%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.03+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
9.90
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
AVS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.9%
@ 2.12+2.1%
Under
54.1%
@ 1.65-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.16
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
Betano
2.07
Under
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.62
AVS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
13.9%
@ 6.80+0.3%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.07-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.30
1xBet
7.10
Superbet
6.70
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
AVS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 17.50-3.2%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.04
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.2%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.4%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.6%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.9%
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
86.6%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
+7.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
86.1%
1.22
Pinnacle
1.24
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.1%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-
-0.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.5%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.22
-
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
82.2%
1.27
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+12.1%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.6%
1.30
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
+6.0%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.0%
1.24
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.21
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.3%
1.19
Marathonbet
1.22
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Superbet
1.19
-5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.1%
1.23
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
-
-
-3.0%
-
Over 1.5
70.7%
1.28
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
-1.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Chaves · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jorge Delgado20%
David Kusso20%
Reinaldo18%
Pedro Pinho18%
André Rodrigues17%
Robyn Esajas14%
Aarón Romero12%
Tiago Simões11%
Roberto9%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
João Teixeira0%
Ricardo Alves0%
Zach Muscat0%
Federico Bikoro0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Paulo Victor0%
Tiago Almeida0%
Kiko Pereira0%
Marko Gudžulić0%
Ktatau0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pedro Pinho36%
Ricardo Alves33%
Paulo Victor33%
Bruno Rodrigues31%
Zach Muscat29%
Robyn Esajas29%
Reinaldo27%
Wellington Carvalho22%
David Kusso20%
Marko Gudžulić17%
Kiko Pereira11%
Tiago Almeida10%
Roberto9%
Ktatau8%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
João Teixeira0%
Federico Bikoro0%
André Rodrigues0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Aarón Romero0%
Tiago Simões0%
Jorge Delgado0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Reinaldo18%
Robyn Esajas14%
Kiko Pereira11%
Tiago Almeida10%
David Kusso10%
Roberto9%
Pedro Pinho9%
Carraça8%
Bruno Rodrigues8%
Vozinha0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
João Teixeira0%
Ricardo Alves0%
Zach Muscat0%
Federico Bikoro0%
André Rodrigues0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Paulo Victor0%
Aarón Romero0%
Tiago Simões0%
Marko Gudžulić0%
Jorge Delgado0%
Ktatau0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Reinaldo27%
Roberto27%
Jorge Delgado20%
André Rodrigues17%
Aarón Romero12%
Wellington Carvalho11%
Pedro Pinho9%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
João Teixeira0%
Ricardo Alves0%
Zach Muscat0%
Federico Bikoro0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Paulo Victor0%
Tiago Almeida0%
Kiko Pereira0%
Robyn Esajas0%
Tiago Simões0%
Marko Gudžulić0%
Ktatau0%
David Kusso0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
AVS · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pedro Lima19%
Nenê18%
Tomané13%
Sidi Bane11%
Diego Duarte11%
Guilherme Neiva8%
Rafael Barbosa8%
Diogo Spencer8%
Óscar Perea8%
Aderllan Santos6%
Roni6%
Ángel Algobia5%
Tunde Akinsola3%
Gustavo Assunção0%
Jaume Grau0%
Simão0%
Andre Green0%
Rúben Semedo0%
Kiki Afonso0%
Ponck0%
Bruno Lourenço0%
Kobamelo Kodisang0%
Leonardo Rivas0%
João Gonçalves0%
Mateus Pivô0%
Adriel0%
Guillem Molina0%
Jordi Escobar0%
Cristian Castro0%
Tiago Galletto0%
Paulo Vitor0%
Gustavo Mendonca0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gustavo Assunção40%
Rúben Semedo33%
Gustavo Mendonca27%
Jaume Grau26%
Roni24%
Simão23%
Leonardo Rivas22%
Cristian Castro22%
Paulo Vitor22%
Mateus Pivô21%
Andre Green20%
Ponck19%
Pedro Lima19%
Tiago Galletto18%
Tomané17%
Rafael Barbosa15%
Diogo Spencer15%
Adriel12%
Aderllan Santos12%
Sidi Bane11%
Nenê9%
Guilherme Neiva8%
Kiki Afonso7%
Tunde Akinsola6%
Ángel Algobia0%
Bruno Lourenço0%
Kobamelo Kodisang0%
João Gonçalves0%
Guillem Molina0%
Jordi Escobar0%
Diego Duarte0%
Óscar Perea0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rafael Barbosa15%
Diogo Spencer15%
Guilherme Neiva12%
Tunde Akinsola11%
Pedro Lima7%
Adriel6%
Nenê5%
Leonardo Rivas4%
Diego Duarte4%
Tomané3%
Gustavo Assunção0%
Jaume Grau0%
Simão0%
Andre Green0%
Rúben Semedo0%
Kiki Afonso0%
Ponck0%
Aderllan Santos0%
Ángel Algobia0%
Bruno Lourenço0%
Kobamelo Kodisang0%
João Gonçalves0%
Mateus Pivô0%
Guillem Molina0%
Jordi Escobar0%
Cristian Castro0%
Tiago Galletto0%
Roni0%
Paulo Vitor0%
Óscar Perea0%
Sidi Bane0%
Gustavo Mendonca0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nenê14%
Tunde Akinsola11%
Rafael Barbosa8%
Óscar Perea8%
Aderllan Santos6%
Roni6%
Jaume Grau5%
Guilherme Neiva4%
Pedro Lima4%
Tomané3%
Gustavo Assunção0%
Simão0%
Andre Green0%
Rúben Semedo0%
Kiki Afonso0%
Ponck0%
Ángel Algobia0%
Bruno Lourenço0%
Kobamelo Kodisang0%
Leonardo Rivas0%
João Gonçalves0%
Mateus Pivô0%
Adriel0%
Guillem Molina0%
Jordi Escobar0%
Cristian Castro0%
Tiago Galletto0%
Diego Duarte0%
Paulo Vitor0%
Diogo Spencer0%
Sidi Bane0%
Gustavo Mendonca0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
SCB (23)
€17m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
AMA (6)
€1m
Chaves's squad is €2m more valuable than AVS's (€9m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
TOR (12)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
SCB (9)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
Chaves and AVS have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SCB (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
Chaves and AVS have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
SCB (9)
€7m
TON (9)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
ACA (4)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
Chaves's defence is €1m more valuable than AVS's (€4m vs €3m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Lusitânia Lourosa
Academica
Sporting CP B
Penafiel
Farense
Vizela
Benfica B
Portimonense
União de Leiria
Felgueiras 1932
Leixoes
Amarante
Tondela
FC Porto B
Torreense
Feirense