This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pacos Ferreira
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.17
1.19
1.44
1.43
0.86
vs Stronger (10)
1.60
1.20
1.50
1.33
1.75
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.15
1.15
1.00
1.50
1.30
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.0%
Under 1.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
34.7%
Under 2.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.9%
Under 3.5
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.8%
No
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
13.8%
0-1
13.1%
1-0
10.2%
0-2
8.4%
1-2
7.7%
2-1 ✓
6.2%
2-0
5.3%
Chaves goals ↓
Pacos Ferreira goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
13%
8.4%
3.2%
0.9%
1
10%
15%
7.7%
3.0%
0.9%
2
5.3%
6.2%
3.6%
1.4%
0.4%
3
1.6%
1.9%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chaves goals (down), columns = Pacos Ferreira goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tondela
1.88
Alverca
1.85
Vizela
1.82
Benfica B
1.62
Torreense
1.59
União de Leiria
1.53
Chaves
1.50
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Feirense
1.44
Felgueiras 1932
1.35
Academico Viseu
1.32
Penafiel
1.32
Maritimo
1.26
Leixoes
1.21
FC Porto B
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Oliveirense
0.85
Mafra
0.79
Chaves is 0.50 points better than Pacos Ferreira in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alverca
1.71
Tondela
1.71
Benfica B
1.56
Vizela
1.47
Torreense
1.44
União de Leiria
1.44
Penafiel
1.32
Academico Viseu
1.26
Felgueiras 1932
1.26
Maritimo
1.24
Chaves
1.18
Portimonense
1.12
Leixoes
1.09
FC Porto B
1.06
Feirense
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Oliveirense
0.88
Mafra
0.85
Chaves is 0.15 goals better than Pacos Ferreira in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vizela
0.88
Chaves
1.00
Alverca
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
União de Leiria
1.09
Benfica B
1.12
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.21
Torreense
1.24
Leixoes
1.24
Penafiel
1.38
FC Porto B
1.38
Maritimo
1.41
Pacos Ferreira
1.44
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Portimonense
1.59
Mafra
1.59
Oliveirense
1.88
Chaves is 0.44 goals better than Pacos Ferreira in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
62%
Felgueiras 1932
57%
Chaves
56%
União de Leiria
55%
Benfica B
53%
Oliveirense
51%
Maritimo
51%
FC Porto B
51%
Leixoes
51%
Mafra
50%
Torreense
50%
Feirense
50%
Academico Viseu
48%
Alverca
48%
Penafiel
47%
Tondela
47%
Portimonense
40%
Pacos Ferreira
39%
Chaves is 16.5 percentage points better than Pacos Ferreira in terms of average possession (56% vs 39%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Chaves
For 4.4 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 12.9 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Pacos Ferreira
For 4.9 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 11.6 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chaves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
8.7
11.6
4.6
4.3
4.8
27.0
27.5
26.6
vs Stronger (26)
10.2
9.2
11.3
5.2
5.2
5.3
26.5
28.3
24.9
vs Similar (24)
10.2
7.8
12.1
3.8
3.5
4.2
27.9
26.3
29.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
41%
72%
68%
64%
72%
92%
94%
89%
% under line
43%
59%
28%
32%
36%
28%
8%
6%
11%
This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pacos Ferreira
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.4
9.8
4.0
3.8
4.2
29.3
28.9
29.7
vs Stronger (16)
7.8
8.6
6.3
3.7
3.8
3.5
29.1
31.8
24.7
vs Similar (34)
10.9
11.5
10.6
4.1
3.8
4.4
29.4
27.2
30.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
62%
53%
64%
64%
64%
87%
86%
88%
% under line
43%
38%
47%
36%
36%
36%
13%
14%
12%
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Feirense
11.3
Oliveirense
11.1
Tondela
11.1
Portimonense
10.7
Penafiel
10.6
Chaves
10.3
União de Leiria
10.3
Torreense
10.2
FC Porto B
10.2
Academico Viseu
10.2
Benfica B
10.1
Mafra
10.1
Vizela
10.0
Leixoes
9.9
Pacos Ferreira
9.8
Maritimo
9.6
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Felgueiras 1932
8.5
Alverca
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maritimo
5.9
Chaves
5.8
Felgueiras 1932
5.7
Oliveirense
5.5
Portimonense
5.5
Benfica B
5.4
Leixoes
5.3
Vizela
5.2
Penafiel
5.2
Pacos Ferreira
5.2
Tondela
5.0
União de Leiria
5.0
FC Porto B
4.9
Torreense
4.9
Academico Viseu
4.9
Feirense
4.8
Mafra
4.3
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
Alverca
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Pacos Ferreira
30.1
Leixoes
28.8
Maritimo
28.6
Chaves
28.2
Oliveirense
28.1
Vizela
27.5
Portimonense
27.1
Penafiel
26.7
Tondela
26.5
Benfica B
25.5
União de Leiria
25.4
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Torreense
24.8
Feirense
24.7
Mafra
24.5
Academico Viseu
24.3
FC Porto B
24.2
Felgueiras 1932
18.0
Alverca
14.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.4%
Under 9.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
69.0%
Under 3.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
73.9%
Under 21.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.73
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
0.80
0.38
1.00
0.14
0.57
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.53
0.29
0.43
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pacos Ferreira
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.69
0.69
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
0.60
1.00
0.67
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.60
0.50
0.70
0.80
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.53
0.93
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.93
0.38
1.12
0.29
0.71
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.53
0.71
0.71
1.00
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pacos Ferreira
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.50
0.75
0.79
0.36
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
0.60
0.50
0.67
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.55
0.50
0.80
0.50
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chaves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Chaves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pedro Tiba33%
André Ricardo33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Ruben Pina33%
Wellington Carvalho25%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
Leandro Sanca0%
Ktatau0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ktatau33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Vozinha25%
Carraça25%
Bruno Rodrigues25%
Pedro Tiba0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Leandro Sanca0%
André Ricardo0%
Ruben Pina0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Pedro Tiba33%
Leandro Sanca33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Carraça25%
Vozinha0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
André Ricardo0%
Ktatau0%
Ruben Pina0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Leandro Sanca67%
Ruben Pina67%
Wellington Carvalho25%
Vozinha0%
Pedro Tiba0%
Carraça0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
André Ricardo0%
Ktatau0%
Pedro Pinho0%
Pacos Ferreira
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vitorino Antunes40%
Vladislav Morozov25%
Diego Damasceno20%
Rui Fonte17%
João Caiado17%
Ivan Pavlić17%
Marcos Paulo0%
Erick Ferigra0%
Marafona0%
Gonçalo Cardoso0%
Ícaro0%
Welton0%
Anilson0%
Ronaldo Afonso0%
Costinha0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Miguel Mota0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Welton50%
João Caiado50%
Gonçalo Nogueira50%
Vitorino Antunes40%
Diego Damasceno40%
Rui Fonte33%
Gonçalo Cardoso33%
Marafona25%
Costinha25%
Anilson20%
Erick Ferigra17%
Ronaldo Afonso17%
Ivan Pavlić17%
Marcos Paulo0%
Ícaro0%
Vladislav Morozov0%
Miguel Mota0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Welton25%
Anilson20%
Rui Fonte17%
João Caiado17%
Marcos Paulo0%
Erick Ferigra0%
Marafona0%
Gonçalo Cardoso0%
Ícaro0%
Vitorino Antunes0%
Vladislav Morozov0%
Diego Damasceno0%
Ronaldo Afonso0%
Ivan Pavlić0%
Costinha0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Miguel Mota0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ronaldo Afonso33%
Vitorino Antunes20%
Rui Fonte17%
Ivan Pavlić17%
Marcos Paulo0%
Erick Ferigra0%
Marafona0%
Gonçalo Cardoso0%
Ícaro0%
Vladislav Morozov0%
Welton0%
João Caiado0%
Diego Damasceno0%
Anilson0%
Costinha0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Miguel Mota0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (30)
€39m
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
Chaves's squad is €7m more valuable than Pacos Ferreira's (€9m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (8)
€15m
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Chaves's attack is €2m more valuable than Pacos Ferreira's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
ALV (8)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Chaves's midfield is €2m more valuable than Pacos Ferreira's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (14)
€18m
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Chaves's defence is €3m more valuable than Pacos Ferreira's (€4m vs €1m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Tondela
Alverca
Vizela
Benfica B
Torreense
União de Leiria
Feirense
Felgueiras 1932
Academico Viseu
Penafiel
Maritimo
Leixoes
FC Porto B
Portimonense
Oliveirense
Mafra
CF Os Belenenses