This opponent (Torreense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torreense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.00
1.36
1.14
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.53
0.95
1.50
0.88
1.55
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
1.09
1.17
1.50
1.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.8%
Under 1.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
33.4%
Under 2.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.0%
Under 3.5
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.7%
No
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.6%
1-1
14.3%
0-0
14.3%
0-2
9.7%
1-0
9.3%
1-2
7.9%
2-1
5.3%
2-0 ✓
4.4%
Chaves goals ↓
Torreense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
15%
9.7%
4.0%
1.2%
1
9.3%
14%
7.9%
3.2%
1.0%
2
4.4%
5.3%
3.3%
1.3%
0.4%
3
1.2%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chaves goals (down), columns = Torreense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maritimo
1.94
Torreense
1.74
Academico Viseu
1.74
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Pacos Ferreira
1.15
Oliveirense
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
0.50
Chaves is 0.41 points worse than Torreense in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Academico Viseu
1.71
União de Leiria
1.53
Maritimo
1.47
Torreense
1.35
Leixoes
1.35
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
Farense
0.89
CF Os Belenenses
0.00
Chaves is 0.12 goals worse than Torreense in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
CF Os Belenenses
0.50
Maritimo
0.85
Torreense
0.97
Academico Viseu
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Vizela
1.18
Chaves
1.18
Feirense
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Pacos Ferreira
1.41
Portimonense
1.44
Oliveirense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Leixoes
1.62
Chaves is 0.21 goals worse than Torreense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
Maritimo
52%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Academico Viseu
49%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Oliveirense
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Pacos Ferreira
46%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Chaves is 9.1 percentage points better than Torreense in terms of average possession (55% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Chaves
For 4.9 · Against 3.7 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 3.5 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 14.0 · Total 27.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Torreense
For 5.3 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 12.3 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chaves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.7
7.0
4.9
4.5
5.3
18.0
17.8
18.4
vs Stronger (12)
7.8
8.8
6.0
5.2
3.7
6.7
18.7
18.8
18.3
vs Similar (38)
10.5
12.2
7.7
4.8
4.7
4.8
17.6
17.1
18.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
67%
20%
62%
65%
58%
52%
47%
62%
% under line
50%
33%
80%
38%
35%
42%
48%
53%
38%
This opponent (Torreense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torreense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
8.7
11.7
4.4
4.8
4.0
19.5
19.5
19.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
8.9
8.7
9.5
4.2
4.5
4.0
18.7
21.6
13.8
vs Weaker (17)
12.8
-
12.8
4.7
5.4
3.9
21.2
5.0
25.2
% over line
42%
33%
50%
62%
71%
54%
50%
50%
50%
% under line
58%
67%
50%
38%
29%
46%
50%
50%
50%
This opponent (Chaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
12.1
Portimonense
11.2
Farense
10.9
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.7
FC Porto B
10.6
Torreense
10.2
Academico Viseu
10.1
Benfica B
10.1
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Oliveirense
10.1
Vizela
10.0
Pacos Ferreira
9.9
União de Leiria
9.8
Chaves
9.4
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Feirense
9.0
Leixoes
8.9
Maritimo
8.6
Sporting CP B
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
6.6
Feirense
6.3
Sporting CP B
6.2
Chaves
6.2
Felgueiras 1932
6.2
Vizela
6.1
Pacos Ferreira
6.1
Lusitânia Lourosa
6.0
Leixoes
5.9
Farense
5.9
FC Porto B
5.8
Maritimo
5.8
Academico Viseu
5.7
União de Leiria
5.7
Oliveirense
5.6
Portimonense
5.5
Penafiel
5.4
Torreense
5.3
CF Os Belenenses
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.2
Farense
30.0
Sporting CP B
25.4
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Leixoes
23.5
Pacos Ferreira
22.6
União de Leiria
20.7
Academico Viseu
20.5
Oliveirense
20.0
Maritimo
19.0
Vizela
18.2
Felgueiras 1932
18.1
Portimonense
17.8
Penafiel
17.6
Chaves
17.4
Feirense
17.3
FC Porto B
16.9
Benfica B
16.0
Torreense
15.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
56.8%
Under 9.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
83.6%
Under 3.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
66.8%
Under 21.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.37
0.47
0.40
0.47
0.33
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.62
0.25
0.75
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.27
0.55
0.27
0.55
0.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Torreense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torreense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.43
0.50
0.57
0.50
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.47
0.75
0.50
0.36
0.45
vs Weaker (11)
0.45
0.36
0.17
0.67
0.80
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torreense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torreense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torreense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.40
0.60
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.38
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.77
0.55
0.73
0.82
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Torreense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torreense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
0.86
0.57
0.94
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.00
0.47
0.75
0.38
1.18
0.55
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.73
1.00
0.83
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chaves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torreense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torreense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torreense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Chaves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jorge Delgado20%
David Kusso20%
Reinaldo18%
Pedro Pinho18%
André Rodrigues17%
Robyn Esajas14%
Aarón Romero12%
Tiago Simões11%
Roberto9%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
João Teixeira0%
Ricardo Alves0%
Zach Muscat0%
Federico Bikoro0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Paulo Victor0%
Tiago Almeida0%
Kiko Pereira0%
Marko Gudžulić0%
Ktatau0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pedro Pinho36%
Ricardo Alves33%
Paulo Victor33%
Bruno Rodrigues31%
Zach Muscat29%
Robyn Esajas29%
Reinaldo27%
Wellington Carvalho22%
David Kusso20%
Marko Gudžulić17%
Kiko Pereira11%
Tiago Almeida10%
Roberto9%
Ktatau8%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
João Teixeira0%
Federico Bikoro0%
André Rodrigues0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Aarón Romero0%
Tiago Simões0%
Jorge Delgado0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Reinaldo18%
Robyn Esajas14%
Kiko Pereira11%
Tiago Almeida10%
David Kusso10%
Roberto9%
Pedro Pinho9%
Carraça8%
Bruno Rodrigues8%
Vozinha0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
João Teixeira0%
Ricardo Alves0%
Zach Muscat0%
Federico Bikoro0%
André Rodrigues0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Paulo Victor0%
Aarón Romero0%
Tiago Simões0%
Marko Gudžulić0%
Jorge Delgado0%
Ktatau0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Reinaldo27%
Roberto27%
Jorge Delgado20%
André Rodrigues17%
Aarón Romero12%
Wellington Carvalho11%
Pedro Pinho9%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
João Teixeira0%
Ricardo Alves0%
Zach Muscat0%
Federico Bikoro0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Paulo Victor0%
Tiago Almeida0%
Kiko Pereira0%
Robyn Esajas0%
Tiago Simões0%
Marko Gudžulić0%
Ktatau0%
David Kusso0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
Torreense
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kévin Zohi38%
Dany Jean20%
Stopira11%
Musa Drammeh10%
Javi Vázquez9%
Lucas Paes0%
Costinha0%
Pité0%
David Bruno0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Manuel Pozo Guerrero0%
Arnau Casas0%
Alejandro Alfaro0%
Luis Quintero0%
Andre Simões0%
Ismaïl Seydi0%
Mohamed Ali Diadié0%
Leo Azevedo0%
Arielson0%
Danilo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Guilherme Liberato33%
Alejandro Alfaro29%
Arnau Casas25%
Andre Simões25%
Manuel Pozo Guerrero20%
Musa Drammeh20%
Ismaïl Seydi20%
Leo Azevedo20%
Javi Vázquez18%
Pité17%
Stopira11%
Dany Jean10%
David Bruno9%
Lucas Paes0%
Kévin Zohi0%
Costinha0%
Luis Quintero0%
Mohamed Ali Diadié0%
Arielson0%
Danilo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Manuel Pozo Guerrero20%
Alejandro Alfaro14%
Dany Jean10%
Musa Drammeh10%
Ismaïl Seydi10%
Leo Azevedo10%
Javi Vázquez9%
Stopira0%
Lucas Paes0%
Kévin Zohi0%
Costinha0%
Pité0%
David Bruno0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Arnau Casas0%
Luis Quintero0%
Andre Simões0%
Mohamed Ali Diadié0%
Arielson0%
Danilo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kévin Zohi25%
Musa Drammeh20%
Alejandro Alfaro14%
Dany Jean10%
Javi Vázquez0%
Stopira0%
Lucas Paes0%
Costinha0%
Pité0%
David Bruno0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Manuel Pozo Guerrero0%
Arnau Casas0%
Luis Quintero0%
Andre Simões0%
Ismaïl Seydi0%
Mohamed Ali Diadié0%
Leo Azevedo0%
Arielson0%
Danilo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
SCB (23)
€17m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
Chaves's squad is €9m less valuable than Torreense's (€9m vs €19m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
SCB (9)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Chaves's attack is €4m less valuable than Torreense's (€3m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SCB (5)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Chaves and Torreense have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
SCB (9)
€7m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Chaves's defence is €5m less valuable than Torreense's (€4m vs €10m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Maritimo
Academico Viseu
FC Porto B
Vizela
União de Leiria
Leixoes
Feirense
Benfica B
Felgueiras 1932
Farense
Lusitânia Lourosa
Sporting CP B
Penafiel
Portimonense
Pacos Ferreira
Oliveirense
CF Os Belenenses