This opponent (Vizela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vizela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.03
1.80
0.80
1.53
1.27
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.50
1.50
0.50
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (26)
1.73
0.96
1.85
0.85
1.62
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.7%
Under 1.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.9%
Under 2.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.4%
Under 3.5
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.3%
No
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-0
9.4%
1-0
9.2%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.3%
1-2 ✓
7.8%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.0%
Chaves goals ↓
Vizela goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
8.6%
6.0%
2.4%
0.7%
1
9.2%
14%
7.8%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.8%
8.3%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.9%
3.6%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.9%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chaves goals (down), columns = Vizela goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tondela
1.88
Alverca
1.85
Vizela
1.82
Benfica B
1.62
Torreense
1.59
União de Leiria
1.53
Chaves
1.50
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Feirense
1.44
Felgueiras 1932
1.35
Academico Viseu
1.32
Penafiel
1.32
Maritimo
1.26
Leixoes
1.21
FC Porto B
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Oliveirense
0.85
Mafra
0.79
Chaves is 0.32 points worse than Vizela in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alverca
1.71
Tondela
1.71
Benfica B
1.56
Vizela
1.47
Torreense
1.44
União de Leiria
1.44
Penafiel
1.32
Academico Viseu
1.26
Felgueiras 1932
1.26
Maritimo
1.24
Chaves
1.18
Portimonense
1.12
Leixoes
1.09
FC Porto B
1.06
Feirense
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Oliveirense
0.88
Mafra
0.85
Chaves is 0.29 goals worse than Vizela in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vizela
0.88
Chaves
1.00
Alverca
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
União de Leiria
1.09
Benfica B
1.12
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.21
Torreense
1.24
Leixoes
1.24
Penafiel
1.38
FC Porto B
1.38
Maritimo
1.41
Pacos Ferreira
1.44
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Portimonense
1.59
Mafra
1.59
Oliveirense
1.88
Chaves is 0.12 goals worse than Vizela in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.88).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
62%
Felgueiras 1932
57%
Chaves
56%
União de Leiria
55%
Benfica B
53%
Oliveirense
51%
Maritimo
51%
FC Porto B
51%
Leixoes
51%
Mafra
50%
Torreense
50%
Feirense
50%
Academico Viseu
48%
Alverca
48%
Penafiel
47%
Tondela
47%
Portimonense
40%
Pacos Ferreira
39%
Chaves is 6.0 percentage points worse than Vizela in terms of average possession (56% vs 62%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Chaves
For 7.7 · Against 5.0 · Total 12.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 4.5 · Total 7.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vizela
For 5.7 · Against 5.7 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.3 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chaves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
9.7
11.9
3.9
3.4
4.4
20.3
21.4
19.2
vs Stronger (20)
10.6
9.3
11.9
5.0
3.8
6.1
23.1
25.0
21.3
vs Similar (30)
11.0
10.2
12.0
3.3
3.1
3.4
17.4
18.1
16.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
65%
50%
82%
60%
58%
62%
67%
71%
62%
% under line
35%
50%
18%
40%
42%
38%
33%
29%
38%
This opponent (Vizela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vizela
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
11.2
9.3
3.9
4.2
3.6
22.0
21.0
23.1
vs Stronger (11)
9.7
10.7
9.0
4.4
4.0
4.7
29.6
28.7
30.2
vs Similar (39)
10.4
11.3
9.4
3.8
4.3
3.2
20.1
19.4
20.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
69%
46%
66%
68%
64%
76%
76%
76%
% under line
42%
31%
54%
34%
32%
36%
24%
24%
24%
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Tondela
11.1
Portimonense
11.0
Torreense
10.9
Oliveirense
10.9
FC Porto B
10.5
Feirense
10.4
Penafiel
10.4
Benfica B
10.3
Chaves
10.2
União de Leiria
10.2
Pacos Ferreira
10.1
Vizela
10.0
Academico Viseu
9.9
Leixoes
9.7
Mafra
9.7
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Maritimo
9.1
Felgueiras 1932
9.0
Alverca
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Felgueiras 1932
5.7
Oliveirense
5.6
Chaves
5.5
Leixoes
5.5
Maritimo
5.5
Benfica B
5.5
Torreense
5.3
Penafiel
5.2
Pacos Ferreira
5.1
Tondela
5.1
União de Leiria
5.0
Portimonense
5.0
Vizela
4.8
Academico Viseu
4.5
FC Porto B
4.5
Feirense
4.5
Alverca
4.3
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
Mafra
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Leixoes
25.7
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Tondela
23.1
Vizela
22.6
Pacos Ferreira
22.0
Feirense
21.5
Chaves
21.4
Oliveirense
21.3
Maritimo
21.1
União de Leiria
21.1
Portimonense
20.4
Torreense
20.4
FC Porto B
19.9
Penafiel
19.9
Academico Viseu
19.5
Mafra
19.0
Benfica B
18.9
Felgueiras 1932
8.1
Alverca
7.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
56.2%
Under 9.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
67.1%
Under 3.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
2.3%
Under 21.5
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.50
0.36
0.44
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.33
0.46
0.36
0.36
0.31
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Vizela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vizela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.37
0.60
0.33
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.27
0.62
0.38
0.62
0.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vizela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vizela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vizela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.62
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.17
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.33
1.09
0.36
0.77
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Vizela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vizela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.67
1.20
0.47
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
1.12
0.69
1.23
0.46
1.00
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chaves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vizela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vizela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vizela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 19.5 fouls
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Chaves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pedro Tiba33%
André Ricardo33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Ruben Pina33%
Wellington Carvalho25%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
Leandro Sanca0%
Ktatau0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ktatau33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Vozinha25%
Carraça25%
Bruno Rodrigues25%
Pedro Tiba0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Leandro Sanca0%
André Ricardo0%
Ruben Pina0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Pedro Tiba33%
Leandro Sanca33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Carraça25%
Vozinha0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
André Ricardo0%
Ktatau0%
Ruben Pina0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Leandro Sanca67%
Ruben Pina67%
Wellington Carvalho25%
Vozinha0%
Pedro Tiba0%
Carraça0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
André Ricardo0%
Ktatau0%
Pedro Pinho0%
Vizela
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Heinz Mörschel40%
Orest Lebedenko25%
Uroš Milovanović25%
Prosper Obah17%
Sava Petrov0%
Angel Bastunov0%
Damien Loppy0%
André Schutte0%
Miguel Tavares0%
João Reis0%
Anthony Correia0%
Aleksandar Busnić0%
Jean-Pierre Rhyner0%
Yannick Semedo0%
Natanael Ntolla0%
Jota Gonçalves0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Raúl García0%
Rodrigo Ramos0%
Vivaldo0%
Ítalo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Anthony Correia60%
Vivaldo40%
João Reis33%
Prosper Obah33%
Diogo Nascimento29%
Rodrigo Ramos29%
Aleksandar Busnić25%
Jota Gonçalves25%
Uroš Milovanović25%
Jean-Pierre Rhyner20%
Yannick Semedo14%
Sava Petrov0%
Angel Bastunov0%
Damien Loppy0%
Heinz Mörschel0%
André Schutte0%
Miguel Tavares0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Natanael Ntolla0%
Raúl García0%
Ítalo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Orest Lebedenko50%
Natanael Ntolla25%
Uroš Milovanović25%
Damien Loppy17%
Diogo Nascimento14%
Sava Petrov0%
Angel Bastunov0%
Heinz Mörschel0%
André Schutte0%
Miguel Tavares0%
João Reis0%
Anthony Correia0%
Aleksandar Busnić0%
Jean-Pierre Rhyner0%
Yannick Semedo0%
Jota Gonçalves0%
Raúl García0%
Rodrigo Ramos0%
Vivaldo0%
Prosper Obah0%
Ítalo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Heinz Mörschel40%
João Reis33%
Prosper Obah33%
Uroš Milovanović25%
Vivaldo20%
Sava Petrov0%
Angel Bastunov0%
Damien Loppy0%
André Schutte0%
Miguel Tavares0%
Anthony Correia0%
Aleksandar Busnić0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Jean-Pierre Rhyner0%
Yannick Semedo0%
Natanael Ntolla0%
Jota Gonçalves0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Raúl García0%
Rodrigo Ramos0%
Ítalo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (30)
€39m
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
Chaves's squad is €2m less valuable than Vizela's (€9m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (8)
€15m
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Chaves's attack is €3m less valuable than Vizela's (€3m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
ALV (8)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Chaves and Vizela have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (14)
€18m
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Chaves and Vizela have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Tondela
Alverca
Benfica B
Torreense
União de Leiria
Feirense
Felgueiras 1932
Academico Viseu
Penafiel
Maritimo
Leixoes
Pacos Ferreira
FC Porto B
Portimonense
Oliveirense
Mafra
CF Os Belenenses