This opponent (Brentford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brentford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.57
1.07
1.27
1.13
1.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.71
1.25
1.25
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (22)
1.14
1.55
0.90
1.30
1.33
1.75
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.7%
@ 1.95+7.5%
Under 2.5
43.3%
@ 1.89-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.3%
Under 3.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
41.0%
No
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.6%
1-0
11.6%
3-0
11.5%
2-1
8.6%
1-1
8.0%
4-0
6.8%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
5.9%
Chelsea goals ↓
Brentford goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
2.3%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
1
12%
8.0%
2.1%
0.4%
0.1%
2
15%
8.6%
2.5%
0.5%
0.1%
3
12%
6.8%
2.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
6.8%
4.0%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chelsea goals (down), columns = Brentford goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Manchester City
2.45
Liverpool
2.42
Chelsea
1.95
Tottenham
1.87
Arsenal
1.82
Manchester United
1.53
West Ham
1.47
Leicester
1.37
Brighton
1.34
Wolves
1.34
Newcastle
1.29
Crystal Palace
1.26
Brentford
1.21
Aston Villa
1.18
Southampton
1.05
Everton
1.03
Leeds
1.00
Burnley
0.92
Watford
0.61
Norwich
0.58
Chelsea is 0.74 points better than Brentford in terms of average points per game (1.95 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.61
Liverpool
2.47
Chelsea
2.00
Tottenham
1.82
Leicester
1.63
Arsenal
1.61
West Ham
1.58
Manchester United
1.50
Aston Villa
1.37
Crystal Palace
1.32
Brentford
1.26
Newcastle
1.16
Southampton
1.13
Everton
1.13
Brighton
1.11
Leeds
1.11
Wolves
1.00
Watford
0.89
Burnley
0.89
Norwich
0.61
Chelsea is 0.74 goals better than Brentford in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liverpool
0.68
Manchester City
0.68
Chelsea
0.87
Tottenham
1.05
Wolves
1.13
Brighton
1.16
Crystal Palace
1.21
Arsenal
1.26
West Ham
1.34
Burnley
1.39
Aston Villa
1.42
Brentford
1.47
Manchester United
1.50
Leicester
1.55
Newcastle
1.63
Everton
1.74
Southampton
1.76
Watford
2.03
Leeds
2.08
Norwich
2.21
Chelsea is 0.61 goals better than Brentford in terms of goals conceded per game (0.87 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
68%
Liverpool
63%
Chelsea
62%
Brighton
55%
Arsenal
53%
Manchester United
52%
Tottenham
52%
Leeds
52%
Leicester
52%
Crystal Palace
51%
West Ham
48%
Southampton
47%
Aston Villa
46%
Brentford
44%
Norwich
43%
Watford
41%
Newcastle
40%
Burnley
40%
Everton
39%
Chelsea is 17.8 percentage points better than Brentford in terms of average possession (62% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Chelsea
For 6.0 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 10.1 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brentford
For 3.6 · Against 7.5 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 8.9 · Total 17.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chelsea
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.8
9.8
3.4
3.7
3.2
21.7
22.6
20.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
11.3
12.1
10.4
3.5
3.8
3.2
21.3
22.5
20.1
vs Weaker (27)
9.4
9.6
9.3
3.4
3.5
3.3
22.0
22.7
21.4
% over line
50%
54%
46%
44%
46%
42%
50%
62%
38%
% under line
50%
46%
54%
56%
54%
58%
50%
38%
62%
This opponent (Brentford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brentford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.3
9.1
3.3
3.0
3.5
23.3
22.8
23.7
vs Stronger (7)
10.4
9.5
11.7
1.0
1.0
1.0
17.9
19.5
15.7
vs Similar (28)
9.4
9.8
9.0
3.9
3.8
4.0
22.4
20.7
23.7
vs Weaker (15)
8.4
8.5
8.3
3.1
2.8
3.4
27.5
27.8
27.1
% over line
44%
46%
42%
48%
46%
50%
54%
54%
54%
% under line
56%
54%
58%
52%
54%
50%
46%
46%
46%
This opponent (Chelsea) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Burnley
10.9
Leicester
10.9
Southampton
10.8
Aston Villa
10.7
Brighton
10.7
Liverpool
10.6
Leeds
10.4
Everton
10.3
Wolves
10.3
Watford
10.3
Chelsea
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Norwich
10.1
Tottenham
10.1
Manchester United
10.0
Newcastle
10.0
Crystal Palace
10.0
Arsenal
9.8
West Ham
9.7
Brentford
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Leeds
4.2
Aston Villa
4.0
Newcastle
3.8
Wolves
3.6
Tottenham
3.6
Everton
3.5
Brighton
3.5
Manchester United
3.5
Watford
3.4
Chelsea
3.4
Southampton
3.3
Brentford
3.3
Norwich
3.2
Crystal Palace
3.1
Arsenal
3.1
Manchester City
3.0
Leicester
2.9
West Ham
2.8
Liverpool
2.8
Burnley
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aston Villa
24.5
Watford
23.4
Brentford
23.3
Leeds
23.2
Crystal Palace
22.8
Norwich
22.7
Tottenham
21.9
Chelsea
21.7
Southampton
21.3
Leicester
21.1
Newcastle
20.7
Manchester United
20.5
Wolves
20.4
Everton
20.3
Brighton
19.8
Arsenal
19.1
Burnley
19.0
Liverpool
18.9
Manchester City
18.5
West Ham
17.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.0%
Under 9.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.5%
Under 3.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
75.9%
Under 21.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chelsea
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.27
0.86
0.21
0.81
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.33
0.57
0.29
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.20
1.14
0.14
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
77% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brentford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.87
0.27
0.67
0.53
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.91
0.20
0.60
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chelsea over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelsea over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelsea over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chelsea
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.47
1.29
0.57
1.06
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.40
0.86
0.43
1.12
0.38
vs Weaker (15)
1.33
0.53
1.71
0.71
1.00
0.38
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brentford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.80
0.60
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.64
0.70
0.70
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chelsea over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelsea over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelsea over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
76.5%
1.40
-
-
-
-
-
+7.6%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5 cards
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Chelsea · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
João Pedro67%
Cole Palmer67%
Pedro Neto33%
Morgan Rogers33%
Roméo Lavia33%
Reece James0%
Maxence Lacroix0%
Malo Gusto0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Jorrel Hato0%
Josh Acheampong0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Reece James33%
Roméo Lavia33%
Pedro Neto0%
João Pedro0%
Morgan Rogers0%
Maxence Lacroix0%
Cole Palmer0%
Malo Gusto0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Jorrel Hato0%
Josh Acheampong0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
João Pedro67%
Morgan Rogers33%
Maxence Lacroix33%
Cole Palmer33%
Malo Gusto33%
Jorrel Hato33%
Pedro Neto0%
Reece James0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Roméo Lavia0%
Josh Acheampong0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
João Pedro67%
Cole Palmer67%
Pedro Neto0%
Morgan Rogers0%
Reece James0%
Maxence Lacroix0%
Malo Gusto0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Roméo Lavia0%
Jorrel Hato0%
Josh Acheampong0%
Brentford · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Callum Wilson33%
Mikkel Damsgaard33%
Nathan Collins33%
Vitaly Janelt33%
Aaron Hickey33%
Keane Lewis-Potter33%
Kevin Schade33%
Igor Thiago33%
Michael Kayode33%
Jaidon Anthony0%
Yehor Yarmoliuk0%
Mamadou Sangare0%
Dango Ouattara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vitaly Janelt67%
Nathan Collins33%
Jaidon Anthony33%
Callum Wilson0%
Mikkel Damsgaard0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Keane Lewis-Potter0%
Kevin Schade0%
Igor Thiago0%
Yehor Yarmoliuk0%
Mamadou Sangare0%
Dango Ouattara0%
Michael Kayode0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mamadou Sangare67%
Keane Lewis-Potter33%
Jaidon Anthony33%
Yehor Yarmoliuk33%
Callum Wilson0%
Mikkel Damsgaard0%
Nathan Collins0%
Vitaly Janelt0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Kevin Schade0%
Igor Thiago0%
Dango Ouattara0%
Michael Kayode0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nathan Collins33%
Kevin Schade33%
Igor Thiago33%
Michael Kayode33%
Callum Wilson0%
Mikkel Damsgaard0%
Vitaly Janelt0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Keane Lewis-Potter0%
Jaidon Anthony0%
Yehor Yarmoliuk0%
Mamadou Sangare0%
Dango Ouattara0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
BUR (28)
€115m
NOR (34)
€107m
WAT (22)
€88m
LEI (22)
€69m
Chelsea's squad is €841m more valuable than Brentford's (€1407m vs €565m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
NOR (10)
€46m
WAT (6)
€28m
LEI (7)
€20m
Chelsea's attack is €386m more valuable than Brentford's (€614m vs €228m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
NOR (11)
€31m
LEI (4)
€13m
BUR (3)
€8m
Chelsea's midfield is €150m more valuable than Brentford's (€278m vs €128m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
EVE (10)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
NOR (13)
€29m
WAT (10)
€22m
Chelsea's defence is €305m more valuable than Brentford's (€514m vs €209m).
England: Premier League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Liverpool
Tottenham
Arsenal
Manchester United
West Ham
Leicester
Brighton
Wolves
Newcastle
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Southampton
Everton
Leeds
Burnley
Watford
Norwich