Chelsea vs Brighton Result & Analysis

Chelsea and Brighton face a finely balanced contest, with the model favouring a home win. The probabilities are 38% for Chelsea, 26% for a draw and 36% for Brighton. The expected total of goals is 3.1, but the most likely total is two, with a 22% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.7% probability. Chelsea, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 0.64 goals scored and 1.36 conceded, while Brighton, on the road, averages 1.79 goals scored and 1.79 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 96.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 94.5%, Over 3.5 cards at 89.6%, Over 21.5 fouls at 88.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 88.0%, Over 1.5 goals at 83.1%, Under 10.5 corners at 80.5% and Over 4.5 cards at 79.0%. Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and every selection is mentioned.

Chelsea’s 3-2 victory over Brighton confirmed the model’s prediction that the home side would win, a call that proved correct. The win extends Chelsea’s two-game winning run, while Brighton also finished on a similar streak. The model had given a 38% probability to a home win, 26% for a draw and 36% for an away win, and the final score of 3-2 matched the predicted 2-goal total. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 2.5 cards hit at 96.1%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 94.5%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 89.6%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 88.1%, Over 1.5 hit at 83.1% and Over 4.5 cards hit at 79.0%. The only misses were Under 11.5 corners at 88.0% and Under 10.5 corners at 80.5%.