Chelsea’s recent three-game winning streak and the fact that they are playing at home against a weaker opponent gives the model a 72% chance of a home win, the clear favourite. The probability of a draw is 18% and Hull’s chance of victory is 10%. The expected total goals is 3.1, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Chelsea, with a 12% probability. Chelsea’s home form shows an average of 2.22 goals scored and 0.89 conceded versus weaker sides, while Hull’s away form against stronger teams averages 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.4%, Under 7.5 at 99.3% with a 4% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.6% with a 5% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.1%, Under 6.5 at 97.9% with a 5% edge, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 94.8% with a 4% edge, Under 5.5 at 94.2% with a 9% edge, and Away under 1.5 2H goals at 92.9% with a 2% edge.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chelsea win
69.2%
Avg Implied 76.4% · @ 1.23
Edge
-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Dafabet
1.24
Draw
19.5%
Avg Implied 15.5% · @ 6.06
Edge
+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
6.60
BetVictor
6.50
Betano
6.40
1xBet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.15
Hull win
11.4%
Avg Implied 8.1% · @ 11.65
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
13.40
Marathonbet
13.25
Pinnacle
13.13
10Bet
12.50
Betano
12.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Chelsea
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.57
1.62
1.31
1.93
1.86
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
4.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
5.00
vs Similar (12)
1.25
1.67
1.00
1.67
1.50
1.67
vs Weaker (16)
2.25
1.19
2.22
0.89
2.29
1.57
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hull
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.13
1.19
1.25
1.29
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.30
1.07
1.21
1.14
1.38
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.9%
@ 1.11-1.1%
Under 1.5
17.1%
@ 5.81+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.08
Under
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.80
1xBet
5.70
Marathonbet
5.70
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.6%
@ 1.42-5.4%
Under 2.5
39.4%
@ 2.75+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.41
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.80
Unibet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.75
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.3%
@ 2.07-7.5%
Under 3.5
61.7%
@ 1.75+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.18
1xBet
2.11
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.05
Under
1xBet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
Both teams to score
Yes
52.0%
@ 1.88+2.6%
No
48.0%
@ 1.84-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
2.00
Bet365
1.95
10Bet
1.90
Betfair
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
No
Betfair
1.90
1xBet
1.86
Unibet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.4%@ 6.77+4.8%
2-1
9.6%@ 8.56+4.4%
1-1
9.2%@ 11.08+5.2%
1-0
9.1%@ 8.45+3.8%
3-0
8.7%@ 7.60+2.8%
3-1
7.4%@ 9.69+2.7%
0-0
5.2%@ 18.86+2.8%
4-0
5.0%@ 10.88+0.9%
Chelsea goals ↓
Hull goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
2.8%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
1
9.1%
9.2%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
2
11%
9.6%
4.1%
1.1%
0.2%
3
8.7%
7.4%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
4
5.0%
4.2%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chelsea goals (down), columns = Hull goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brentford
1.39
Brighton
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Chelsea is 0.39 points better than Hull in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 0.98).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Chelsea is 0.54 goals better than Hull in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 0.99).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Chelsea is 0.54 goals better than Hull in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.91).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Chelsea
For 5.4 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 13.1 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hull
For 3.8 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.4 · Against 10.7 · Total 19.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chelsea
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.8
9.5
4.1
4.3
3.9
22.6
22.7
22.5
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
12.0
5.0
0.5
0.0
1.0
19.5
18.0
21.0
vs Similar (23)
9.6
10.2
9.0
4.6
5.2
4.0
24.9
24.1
25.6
vs Weaker (25)
10.8
11.4
10.3
4.0
3.8
4.1
20.8
21.7
19.9
% over line
65%
70%
60%
62%
71%
54%
54%
65%
44%
% under line
35%
30%
40%
38%
29%
46%
46%
35%
56%
This opponent (Hull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hull
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.2
11.7
3.9
3.6
4.2
21.2
21.6
20.7
vs Stronger (6)
9.2
9.0
10.0
2.8
2.8
3.0
20.2
19.0
24.0
vs Similar (44)
10.5
9.2
11.8
4.0
3.7
4.3
21.3
21.9
20.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
44%
77%
56%
56%
57%
38%
48%
27%
% under line
40%
56%
23%
44%
44%
43%
62%
52%
73%
This opponent (Chelsea) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Brighton
9.7
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Manchester United
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Everton
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Sunderland
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.3
Hull
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.9
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.7
Sunderland
22.7
Leeds
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Everton
21.6
Manchester United
21.5
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
20.0
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
61.0%
@ 1.89+11.7%
Under 9.5
39.0%
@ 1.84-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.81
Under
Unibet
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.0%
Under 3.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
47.1%
Under 21.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Chelsea or Draw
79.3%
Avg Implied 91.0% · @ 1.04
Edge
-11.7%
69%
19%
11%
covers Chelsea + Draw
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.06
William Hil
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Chelsea or Hull
73.9%
Avg Implied 85.1% · @ 1.11
Edge
-11.2%
69%
19%
11%
covers Chelsea + Hull
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Draw or Hull
46.8%
Avg Implied 23.9% · @ 3.98
Edge
+22.9%
69%
19%
11%
covers Draw + Hull
Best 5 market prices
Betano
4.35
BetVictor
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.08
Betfair
4.00
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Chelsea over/under 0.5
Over
82.1%
@ 1.03-8.6%
Under
17.9%
@ 10.06+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Under
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
8.25
Chelsea over/under 1.5
Over
51.3%
@ 1.26-22.4%
Under
48.7%
@ 3.52+22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Under
Pinnacle
3.90
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.58
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Chelsea over/under 2.5
Over
24.8%
@ 1.83-25.9%
Under
75.2%
@ 1.88+25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.88
Chelsea over/under 3.5
Over
9.6%
@ 3.12-20.1%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.32+20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.20
Betfair
3.20
BetVictor
3.13
Under
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Hull over/under 0.5
Over
63.0%
@ 1.77+10.6%
Under
37.0%
@ 1.96-10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Under
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
1.98
BetVictor
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Hull over/under 1.5
Over
26.3%
@ 4.91+7.3%
Under
73.7%
@ 1.15-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
10Bet
5.00
Betano
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
Under
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Hull over/under 2.5
Over
7.9%
@ 14.88+1.5%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.02-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Hull over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
@ 51.00-98.1%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Chelsea, so a minus line means Chelsea give that many goals of a start and Hull receive them. At -1, Chelsea must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Chelsea win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Chelsea)
Chelsea -2
13.3%
@ 2.55-21.9%
Draw -2
16.7%
@ 3.97-5.9%
Hull +2
70.0%
@ 2.13+27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.63
10Bet
2.60
Unibet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.47
Draw
Marathonbet
4.33
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.80
Unibet
3.70
Away
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.07
Handicap -1 (Chelsea)
Chelsea -1
30.0%
@ 1.63-25.2%
Draw -1
23.2%
@ 4.07+1.1%
Hull +1
46.8%
@ 3.98+24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Betfair
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Draw
Marathonbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Unibet
3.80
Away
Marathonbet
4.15
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.75
Handicap +1 (Chelsea)
Chelsea +1
79.3%
@ 1.04-9.2%
Draw +1
13.0%
@ 11.67+5.0%
Hull -1
7.7%
@ 26.33+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Betfair
31.00
Bet365
29.00
10Bet
19.00
Handicap +2 (Chelsea)
Chelsea +2
92.3%
Draw +2
5.6%
Hull -2
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chelsea
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.69
0.56
1.00
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.75
0.67
0.50
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
0.50
0.78
0.44
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hull
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.81
0.62
0.71
0.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.48
0.79
0.64
0.77
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.3%
@ 1.23+2.0%
Under 0.5
21.7%
@ 3.95-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.0%
@ 2.06-2.5%
Under 1.5
57.0%
@ 1.72+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Pinnacle
2.07
BetVictor
2.04
Under
10Bet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.1%
@ 4.47-1.9%
Under 2.5
80.9%
@ 1.19+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.80
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.65
Betano
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chelsea over/under 0.5 HT
Over
68.4%
@ 1.34-1.2%
Under
31.6%
@ 3.07+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Under
10Bet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Betano
2.82
Chelsea over/under 1.5 HT
Over
33.6%
@ 2.68-1.0%
Under
66.4%
@ 1.42+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.76
Betano
2.75
1xBet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.67
Unibet
2.60
Under
10Bet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Chelsea over/under 2.5 HT
Over
16.5%
@ 6.48+2.1%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.09-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Betano
6.20
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Hull over/under 0.5 HT
Over
25.5%
@ 3.22-3.3%
Under
74.5%
@ 1.30+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.59
Betano
3.35
Marathonbet
3.30
10Bet
3.10
Unibet
3.00
Under
Unibet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Hull over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.8%
@ 10.50-4.1%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.03+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Hull over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chelsea
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.87
0.94
0.75
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.92
0.33
1.17
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.31
0.69
1.44
0.44
1.14
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Hull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hull
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.38
0.62
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.59
0.43
0.50
0.62
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.9%
@ 1.13+1.8%
Under 0.5
15.1%
@ 5.55-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Under
1xBet
6.40
Marathonbet
5.90
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.40
10Bet
5.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
57.1%
@ 1.65+0.3%
Under 1.5
42.9%
@ 2.17-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.73
10Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.62
Under
1xBet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.30
Betano
2.20
Unibet
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
29.2%
@ 3.02-2.0%
Under 2.5
70.8%
@ 1.37+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.25
10Bet
3.00
Betano
2.92
Marathonbet
2.85
Under
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Betano
1.39
William Hil
1.33
10Bet
1.33
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chelsea over/under 0.5 2H
Over
79.6%
@ 1.23+3.6%
Under
20.4%
@ 3.88-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Under
1xBet
3.90
Betano
3.85
Chelsea over/under 1.5 2H
Over
45.8%
@ 2.06+0.6%
Under
54.2%
@ 1.70-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.06
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
1.98
Under
Marathonbet
1.74
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.70
10Bet
1.62
Chelsea over/under 2.5 2H
Over
18.2%
@ 4.37-3.1%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.18+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.05
Under
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Hull over/under 0.5 2H
Over
32.2%
@ 2.65-2.9%
Under
67.8%
@ 1.43+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.72
Marathonbet
2.62
1xBet
2.60
Under
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
Hull over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.2%
@ 9.88-2.3%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.03+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
Hull over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.4%
@ 14.00-5.4%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.0%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
+6.7%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.2%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
Under 5.5
94.2%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
+9.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
Home +2 handicap
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-1.5%
Under 4.5
86.1%
1.30
BetVictor
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
+13.9%
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.9%
1.13
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+1.8%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
83.5%
1.09
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-2.1%
Over 1.5
82.9%
1.11
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.08
-1.1%
Home over 0.5 goals
82.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-8.6%
Under 25.5 fouls
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
81.8%
1.18
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
-
-
+3.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
80.9%
1.19
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
+1.9%
Over 2.5 cards
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.23
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
+3.6%
Home or Draw
79.3%
1.04
BetVictor
1.06
William Hil
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
-11.7%
Home +1 handicap
79.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-9.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals
78.3%
1.23
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+2.0%
Away under 0.5 HT goals
74.5%
1.30
Unibet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
+3.3%
Under 5.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.9%
1.11
1xBet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
-11.2%
Away under 1.5 goals
73.7%
1.15
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-7.3%
Over 8.5 corners
72.7%
1.50
Unibet
1.50
-
-
-
-
+11.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
70.8%
1.37
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Betano
1.39
William Hil
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+2.0%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Chelsea
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
João Pedro67%
Cole Palmer67%
Pedro Neto33%
Morgan Rogers33%
Roméo Lavia33%
Reece James0%
Maxence Lacroix0%
Malo Gusto0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Jorrel Hato0%
Josh Acheampong0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Reece James33%
Roméo Lavia33%
Pedro Neto0%
João Pedro0%
Morgan Rogers0%
Maxence Lacroix0%
Cole Palmer0%
Malo Gusto0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Jorrel Hato0%
Josh Acheampong0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
João Pedro67%
Morgan Rogers33%
Maxence Lacroix33%
Cole Palmer33%
Malo Gusto33%
Jorrel Hato33%
Pedro Neto0%
Reece James0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Roméo Lavia0%
Josh Acheampong0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
João Pedro67%
Cole Palmer67%
Pedro Neto0%
Morgan Rogers0%
Reece James0%
Maxence Lacroix0%
Malo Gusto0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Roméo Lavia0%
Jorrel Hato0%
Josh Acheampong0%
Hull
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Liam Millar33%
Regan Slater0%
Cody Drameh0%
Elliot Stroud0%
Mohamed Belloumi0%
Lucas Herrington0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Regan Slater33%
Liam Millar33%
Elliot Stroud33%
Lucas Herrington33%
Cody Drameh0%
Mohamed Belloumi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Regan Slater33%
Liam Millar33%
Mohamed Belloumi33%
Cody Drameh0%
Elliot Stroud0%
Lucas Herrington0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Regan Slater0%
Liam Millar0%
Cody Drameh0%
Elliot Stroud0%
Mohamed Belloumi0%
Lucas Herrington0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Chelsea's squad is €1301m more valuable than Hull's (€1407m vs €105m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Chelsea's attack is €592m more valuable than Hull's (€614m vs €22m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Chelsea's midfield is €248m more valuable than Hull's (€278m vs €31m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Chelsea's defence is €462m more valuable than Hull's (€514m vs €52m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Arsenal
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham