This opponent (Manchester United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.27
2.33
1.60
1.40
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
1.75
1.06
2.12
1.75
1.38
0.38
vs Weaker (12)
2.17
1.58
3.00
1.33
1.33
1.83
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.9%
Under 1.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.7%
@ 1.85-9.2%
Under 2.5
57.3%
@ 1.99+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.8%
Under 3.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.3%
No
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.0%
2-0
13.9%
1-1 ✓
11.4%
0-0
10.2%
2-1
9.0%
3-0
8.1%
3-1
5.2%
0-1
4.9%
Chelsea goals ↓
Manchester United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
4.9%
1.9%
0.4%
0.1%
1
15%
11%
3.3%
0.7%
0.1%
2
14%
9.0%
2.9%
0.6%
0.1%
3
8.1%
5.2%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
4
3.5%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chelsea goals (down), columns = Manchester United goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Manchester City
2.45
Liverpool
2.42
Chelsea
1.95
Tottenham
1.87
Arsenal
1.82
Manchester United
1.53
West Ham
1.47
Leicester
1.37
Brighton
1.34
Wolves
1.34
Newcastle
1.29
Crystal Palace
1.26
Brentford
1.21
Aston Villa
1.18
Southampton
1.05
Everton
1.03
Leeds
1.00
Burnley
0.92
Watford
0.61
Norwich
0.58
Chelsea is 0.42 points better than Manchester United in terms of average points per game (1.95 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.61
Liverpool
2.47
Chelsea
2.00
Tottenham
1.82
Leicester
1.63
Arsenal
1.61
West Ham
1.58
Manchester United
1.50
Aston Villa
1.37
Crystal Palace
1.32
Brentford
1.26
Newcastle
1.16
Southampton
1.13
Everton
1.13
Brighton
1.11
Leeds
1.11
Wolves
1.00
Watford
0.89
Burnley
0.89
Norwich
0.61
Chelsea is 0.50 goals better than Manchester United in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liverpool
0.68
Manchester City
0.68
Chelsea
0.87
Tottenham
1.05
Wolves
1.13
Brighton
1.16
Crystal Palace
1.21
Arsenal
1.26
West Ham
1.34
Burnley
1.39
Aston Villa
1.42
Brentford
1.47
Manchester United
1.50
Leicester
1.55
Newcastle
1.63
Everton
1.74
Southampton
1.76
Watford
2.03
Leeds
2.08
Norwich
2.21
Chelsea is 0.63 goals better than Manchester United in terms of goals conceded per game (0.87 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
68%
Liverpool
63%
Chelsea
62%
Brighton
55%
Arsenal
53%
Manchester United
52%
Tottenham
52%
Leeds
52%
Leicester
52%
Crystal Palace
51%
West Ham
48%
Southampton
47%
Aston Villa
46%
Brentford
44%
Norwich
43%
Watford
41%
Newcastle
40%
Burnley
40%
Everton
39%
Chelsea is 9.9 percentage points better than Manchester United in terms of average possession (62% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Chelsea
For 6.0 · Against 5.3 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 11.8 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Manchester United
For 5.5 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 8.0 · Total 18.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chelsea
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.5
10.4
3.0
2.8
3.1
21.4
21.5
21.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
11.0
10.8
11.2
3.1
3.2
3.0
20.8
20.4
21.1
vs Weaker (28)
10.1
10.3
9.8
2.9
2.5
3.2
21.9
22.2
21.5
% over line
54%
56%
52%
38%
32%
44%
48%
48%
48%
% under line
46%
44%
48%
62%
68%
56%
52%
52%
52%
This opponent (Manchester United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.0
9.6
3.5
3.3
3.7
21.7
20.5
22.9
vs Stronger (3)
8.3
8.5
8.0
2.7
2.5
3.0
20.3
20.0
21.0
vs Similar (26)
10.7
11.4
9.8
3.4
3.6
3.2
21.7
19.8
24.0
vs Weaker (21)
8.9
8.1
9.5
3.7
2.9
4.2
21.9
21.8
21.9
% over line
50%
52%
48%
46%
40%
52%
50%
40%
60%
% under line
50%
48%
52%
54%
60%
48%
50%
60%
40%
This opponent (Chelsea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Leeds
11.3
Burnley
10.8
Aston Villa
10.7
Leicester
10.6
Chelsea
10.5
Everton
10.3
Southampton
10.3
Brighton
10.3
Liverpool
10.3
Watford
10.2
Arsenal
10.1
Tottenham
10.0
Norwich
10.0
Wolves
10.0
Manchester City
9.8
Crystal Palace
9.8
Manchester United
9.8
Newcastle
9.7
West Ham
9.6
Brentford
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aston Villa
3.9
Tottenham
3.7
Newcastle
3.6
Watford
3.5
Manchester United
3.5
Norwich
3.4
Everton
3.4
Leeds
3.4
Brentford
3.3
Wolves
3.3
Brighton
3.3
Arsenal
3.3
Leicester
3.2
Southampton
3.1
Crystal Palace
3.0
Manchester City
3.0
Chelsea
3.0
Liverpool
2.7
West Ham
2.7
Burnley
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aston Villa
25.8
Brentford
24.8
Watford
24.5
Tottenham
24.0
Norwich
23.9
Leeds
22.9
Southampton
22.5
Crystal Palace
22.5
Manchester United
21.7
Leicester
21.7
Wolves
21.5
Chelsea
21.4
Newcastle
21.3
Brighton
20.5
Everton
20.2
Burnley
20.0
Arsenal
19.8
Liverpool
19.6
Manchester City
19.3
West Ham
18.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
74.6%
Under 9.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
14.8%
Under 3.5
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
29.0%
Under 21.5
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chelsea
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.23
0.93
0.20
0.87
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.29
0.50
0.17
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
0.19
1.22
0.22
1.14
0.14
Clean sheet %
80% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.87
0.73
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.69
0.50
1.00
0.25
0.38
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.58
1.50
0.17
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chelsea over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelsea over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelsea over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chelsea
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.33
1.00
0.47
0.87
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.14
0.33
0.17
1.12
0.12
vs Weaker (16)
1.06
0.50
1.44
0.67
0.57
0.29
Clean sheet %
73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.60
1.47
0.87
0.93
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
1.38
0.38
1.62
0.75
1.12
0.00
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
1.00
1.50
1.17
0.67
0.83
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chelsea over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelsea over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelsea over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5 cards
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Chelsea · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
João Pedro67%
Cole Palmer67%
Pedro Neto33%
Morgan Rogers33%
Roméo Lavia33%
Reece James0%
Maxence Lacroix0%
Malo Gusto0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Jorrel Hato0%
Josh Acheampong0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Reece James33%
Roméo Lavia33%
Pedro Neto0%
João Pedro0%
Morgan Rogers0%
Maxence Lacroix0%
Cole Palmer0%
Malo Gusto0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Jorrel Hato0%
Josh Acheampong0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
João Pedro67%
Morgan Rogers33%
Maxence Lacroix33%
Cole Palmer33%
Malo Gusto33%
Jorrel Hato33%
Pedro Neto0%
Reece James0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Roméo Lavia0%
Josh Acheampong0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
João Pedro67%
Cole Palmer67%
Pedro Neto0%
Morgan Rogers0%
Reece James0%
Maxence Lacroix0%
Malo Gusto0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Roméo Lavia0%
Jorrel Hato0%
Josh Acheampong0%
Manchester United · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Benjamin Šeško34%
Bryan Mbeumo32%
Matheus Cunha29%
Casemiro26%
Bruno Fernandes22%
Patrick Dorgu14%
Mason Mount12%
Harry Maguire8%
Joshua Zirkzee8%
Matthijs de Ligt7%
Amad Diallo6%
Kobbie Mainoo3%
Diogo Dalot3%
Luke Shaw3%
Noussair Mazraoui0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Manuel Ugarte0%
Senne Lammens0%
Leny Yoro0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Ayden Heaven0%
Shea Lacey0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Casemiro29%
Shea Lacey25%
Luke Shaw24%
Patrick Dorgu18%
Harry Maguire16%
Joshua Zirkzee15%
Noussair Mazraoui15%
Diogo Dalot14%
Bruno Fernandes14%
Bryan Mbeumo12%
Matheus Cunha11%
Ayden Heaven11%
Kobbie Mainoo10%
Mason Mount8%
Benjamin Šeško6%
Amad Diallo6%
Manuel Ugarte4%
Leny Yoro3%
Matthijs de Ligt0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Senne Lammens0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bruno Fernandes51%
Patrick Dorgu14%
Kobbie Mainoo10%
Amad Diallo9%
Bryan Mbeumo9%
Diogo Dalot8%
Harry Maguire8%
Casemiro6%
Matheus Cunha6%
Ayden Heaven6%
Mason Mount4%
Joshua Zirkzee4%
Benjamin Šeško3%
Luke Shaw3%
Matthijs de Ligt0%
Noussair Mazraoui0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Manuel Ugarte0%
Senne Lammens0%
Leny Yoro0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Shea Lacey0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bryan Mbeumo32%
Matheus Cunha31%
Benjamin Šeško25%
Bruno Fernandes22%
Amad Diallo15%
Casemiro14%
Joshua Zirkzee8%
Patrick Dorgu7%
Matthijs de Ligt0%
Noussair Mazraoui0%
Diogo Dalot0%
Luke Shaw0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Harry Maguire0%
Mason Mount0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Manuel Ugarte0%
Senne Lammens0%
Kobbie Mainoo0%
Leny Yoro0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Ayden Heaven0%
Shea Lacey0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
BUR (28)
€115m
NOR (34)
€107m
WAT (22)
€88m
LEI (22)
€69m
Chelsea's squad is €477m more valuable than Manchester United's (€1407m vs €929m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
NOR (10)
€46m
WAT (6)
€28m
LEI (7)
€20m
Chelsea's attack is €182m more valuable than Manchester United's (€614m vs €432m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
NOR (11)
€31m
LEI (4)
€13m
BUR (3)
€8m
Chelsea's midfield is €42m more valuable than Manchester United's (€278m vs €236m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
EVE (10)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
NOR (13)
€29m
WAT (10)
€22m
Chelsea's defence is €253m more valuable than Manchester United's (€514m vs €261m).
England: Premier League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Liverpool
Tottenham
Arsenal
West Ham
Leicester
Brighton
Wolves
Newcastle
Crystal Palace
Brentford
Aston Villa
Southampton
Everton
Leeds
Burnley
Watford
Norwich