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Chelsea vs Tottenham Result & Analysis

Date: 19/05/2026
Time: 20:15
Final 2-1
Chelsea
Chelsea
Vs
52%
25%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tottenham
Tottenham
England: Premier League
Referee: S Attwell
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Chelsea a 52% win probability against Tottenham in the England: Premier League on 2026-05-19, with 25% for the draw and 23% for Tottenham. The model estimates around 3.0 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (23%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (81%), Over 3.5 cards (71%).

Results analysis

Chelsea finished 2-1 against Tottenham (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 52% home win, 25% draw and 23% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (81%), Over 3.5 cards (71%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Chelsea win✓ Hit
52.0%
Avg Implied 42.7% · @ 2.19
Edge
+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.28
Edge
-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tottenham win✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied 28.8% · @ 3.25
Edge
-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ChelseaChelsea

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-541W25L01L03L03L03L01L03L13L11DA·AST04/03A·PAR11/03H·NEW14/03H·PAR17/03A·EVE21/03H·MAN12/04H·MAN18/04A·BRI21/04H·NOT04/05A·LIV09/05
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.671.271.401.531.93
vs Stronger (7)1.142.141.001.751.332.67
vs Similar (6)1.671.500.501.502.251.50
vs Weaker (17)1.411.531.561.221.251.88
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TottenhamTottenham

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L25L11D32W03L01L22D10W21W11DH·CRY05/03A·ATL10/03A·LIV15/03H·ATL18/03H·NOT22/03A·SUN12/04H·BRI18/04A·WOL25/04A·AST03/05H·LEE11/05
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.771.471.731.271.80
vs Stronger (8)1.882.621.802.002.003.67
vs Similar (13)1.311.311.571.141.001.50
vs Weaker (9)1.001.670.672.671.171.17
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.8%
@ 1.86+7.4%
Under 2.5
42.2%
@ 1.89-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.4%
Under 3.5
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.0%
No
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-1 ✓
9.8%
2-0
8.4%
1-0
8.0%
1-2
6.2%
0-0
6.0%
3-1
6.0%
2-2
5.7%
Chelsea goals ↓
Tottenham goals →
01234
06.0%4.7%3.4%1.3%0.4%
18.0%12%6.2%2.4%0.7%
28.4%9.8%5.7%2.2%0.6%
35.1%6.0%3.5%1.4%0.4%
42.4%2.7%1.6%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chelsea goals (down), columns = Tottenham goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Newcastle
1.29
Everton
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
West Ham
1.03
Burnley
0.58
Wolves
0.53
Chelsea is 0.29 points better than Tottenham in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.08).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Tottenham
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
West Ham
1.21
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Burnley
1.00
Wolves
0.71
Chelsea is 0.26 goals better than Tottenham in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.26).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Manchester United
1.32
Everton
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
West Ham
1.71
Wolves
1.79
Burnley
1.97
Chelsea is 0.13 goals better than Tottenham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
West Ham
42%
Burnley
42%
Chelsea is 7.2 percentage points better than Tottenham in terms of average possession (57% vs 50%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

ChelseaChelsea

For 6.5 · Against 3.7 · Total 10.2

🚩 Corners

16025101567141293938132837111181612129511A·LIVH·NOTA·BRIH·MANH·MANA·EVEH·PARH·NEWA·PARA·AST
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.7

🟨 Cards

604231111331222123416424424155A·LIVH·NOTA·BRIH·MANH·MANA·EVEH·NEWA·PARA·ASTA·ARS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 11.9 · Total 21.6

⚠️ Fouls

34017171210615121310147681091071491034222125241318192119A·LIVH·NOTA·BRIH·MANH·MANA·EVEH·PARH·NEWA·PARA·AST
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

TottenhamTottenham

For 6.9 · Against 3.9 · Total 10.8

🚩 Corners

16014255557562133774324631610101281614769H·LEEA·ASTA·WOLH·BRIA·SUNH·NOTH·ATLA·LIVA·ATLH·CRY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.8

🟨 Cards

70315243313312435324774637055H·LEEA·ASTA·WOLH·BRIA·SUNH·NOTH·ATLA·LIVA·ATLH·CRY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 11.3 · Total 24.8

⚠️ Fouls

29012712121481414151413131681381215141419242228292624212728H·LEEA·ASTA·WOLH·BRIA·SUNH·NOTH·ATLA·LIVA·ATLH·CRY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ChelseaChelsea

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.010.89.34.54.84.323.122.923.2
vs Stronger (9)9.39.29.54.75.24.023.924.822.8
vs Similar (11)9.210.08.54.85.04.724.322.226.0
vs Weaker (30)10.511.69.54.44.54.222.422.422.3
% over line62%67%58%70%75%65%62%71%54%
% under line38%33%42%30%25%35%38%29%46%
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TottenhamTottenham

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.011.09.04.45.03.822.523.521.4
vs Stronger (10)7.98.47.44.35.43.224.024.223.8
vs Similar (27)10.511.19.84.85.53.922.723.521.7
vs Weaker (13)10.512.88.63.63.33.920.822.719.3
% over line50%58%42%66%77%54%58%62%54%
% under line50%42%58%34%23%46%42%38%46%
This opponent (Chelsea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.2
Bournemouth
10.6
Fulham
10.4
Liverpool
10.4
West Ham
10.3
Brentford
10.1
Tottenham
10.0
Chelsea
10.0
Manchester City
10.0
Nottingham Forest
9.9
Manchester United
9.8
Everton
9.7
Brighton
9.6
Aston Villa
9.5
Burnley
9.4
Leeds
9.3
Wolves
9.3
Crystal Palace
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Sunderland
8.9

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Chelsea
4.6
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.4
Manchester United
4.3
Brighton
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Newcastle
4.0
Brentford
3.9
Crystal Palace
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Wolves
3.8
Manchester City
3.7
West Ham
3.7
Fulham
3.6
Everton
3.6
Liverpool
3.4
Nottingham Forest
3.4
Leeds
3.3
Arsenal
3.2
Burnley
3.2

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Wolves
24.0
Aston Villa
23.8
Bournemouth
23.5
Nottingham Forest
23.5
Chelsea
23.1
Tottenham
22.5
Sunderland
22.3
West Ham
22.0
Manchester United
21.9
Brighton
21.9
Arsenal
21.8
Newcastle
21.7
Everton
21.4
Leeds
21.3
Crystal Palace
20.9
Liverpool
20.7
Manchester City
20.6
Burnley
20.6
Fulham
20.6
Brentford
19.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.9%
Under 9.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.4%
Under 3.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
66.0%
Under 21.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards71.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (26)
€1280m
MC (27)
€1243m
CHE (29)
€1114m
LIV (28)
€940m
MU (29)
€764m
TOT (32)
€713m
NEW (29)
€696m
BOU (31)
€658m
NFO (32)
€621m
BHA (32)
€592m
AVL (28)
€583m
CRY (30)
€553m
BRE (29)
€482m
WHU (34)
€449m
EVE (26)
€443m
SUN (31)
€415m
LEE (28)
€373m
FUL (25)
€356m
WOL (29)
€311m
BUR (33)
€233m
Chelsea's squad is €402m more valuable than Tottenham's (€1114m vs €713m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (11)
€555m
MC (7)
€542m
LIV (8)
€490m
CHE (8)
€418m
MU (10)
€362m
BOU (12)
€353m
NFO (12)
€301m
AVL (11)
€270m
CRY (12)
€255m
TOT (11)
€250m
NEW (8)
€249m
BRE (9)
€208m
EVE (8)
€194m
BHA (11)
€191m
FUL (11)
€188m
WHU (12)
€174m
SUN (13)
€168m
LEE (10)
€142m
BUR (14)
€100m
WOL (10)
€86m
Chelsea's attack is €168m more valuable than Tottenham's (€418m vs €250m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (5)
€267m
NEW (6)
€249m
ARS (4)
€225m
LIV (6)
€201m
TOT (7)
€177m
BHA (8)
€176m
AVL (7)
€168m
MC (6)
€166m
EVE (7)
€126m
NFO (4)
€117m
WHU (8)
€112m
WOL (5)
€111m
SUN (5)
€108m
BOU (5)
€106m
MU (4)
€102m
LEE (6)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
BRE (7)
€89m
BUR (5)
€48m
FUL (4)
€38m
Chelsea's midfield is €90m more valuable than Tottenham's (€267m vs €177m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (14)
€535m
ARS (11)
€500m
CHE (16)
€430m
MU (15)
€300m
TOT (14)
€286m
LIV (14)
€248m
BHA (13)
€225m
CRY (13)
€205m
NFO (16)
€203m
BOU (14)
€199m
NEW (15)
€198m
BRE (13)
€186m
WHU (14)
€164m
AVL (10)
€146m
SUN (13)
€140m
LEE (12)
€134m
FUL (10)
€131m
EVE (11)
€123m
WOL (14)
€115m
BUR (14)
€85m
Chelsea's defence is €143m more valuable than Tottenham's (€430m vs €286m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Chelsea vs Tottenham · H/A from CHE
DateH/AGameScore
01/11/25ATottenham Vs CHE0-1
03/04/25HCHE Vs Tottenham1-0
08/12/24ATottenham Vs CHE3-4
02/05/24HCHE Vs Tottenham2-0
06/11/23ATottenham Vs CHE1-4
26/02/23ATottenham Vs CHE2-0
14/08/22HCHE Vs Tottenham2-2
23/01/22HCHE Vs Tottenham2-0

ChelseaChelsea

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26ALiverpool Vs CHE1-1
04/05/26HCHE Vs Nottingham Forest1-3
21/04/26ABrighton Vs CHE3-0
18/04/26HCHE Vs Manchester United0-1
12/04/26HCHE Vs Manchester City0-3
21/03/26AEverton Vs CHE3-0
17/03/26HCHE Vs Paris Saint Germain0-3
14/03/26HCHE Vs Newcastle0-1
11/03/26AParis Saint Germain Vs CHE5-2
04/03/26AAston Villa Vs CHE1-4

TottenhamTottenham

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/05/26HTOT Vs Leeds1-1
03/05/26AAston Villa Vs TOT1-2
25/04/26AWolves Vs TOT0-1
18/04/26HTOT Vs Brighton2-2
12/04/26ASunderland Vs TOT1-0
22/03/26HTOT Vs Nottingham Forest0-3
18/03/26HTOT Vs Atletico Madrid3-2
15/03/26ALiverpool Vs TOT1-1
10/03/26AAtletico Madrid Vs TOT5-2
05/03/26HTOT Vs Crystal Palace1-3

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Chelsea
Chelsea
England: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLD1.48
HomeLLLLL1.58
AwayWLLLD1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%46%38%
AVG goals3.002.623.35
Over 1.5 %82%75%88%
Over 2.5 %64%54%73%
Over 3.5 %36%25%46%
Scored1.601.461.73
Conceded1.401.171.62
BTTS58%46%69%
Clean Sheet28%38%19%
Corners9.9810.759.27
Cards4.614.964.31
Tottenham
Tottenham
England: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWD1.22
HomeLWLDD1.15
AwayLDLWW1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%31%33%
AVG goals2.942.883.00
Over 1.5 %82%85%79%
Over 2.5 %60%62%58%
Over 3.5 %32%31%33%
Scored1.401.381.42
Conceded1.541.501.58
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet30%27%33%
Corners10.0010.968.96
Cards4.384.963.75

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ArsenalArsenal3885
68%
2.2
7127+44
2.6
71%
53%
24%
9.1
42%
3.2
47%
21.3
47%
1280
5552255001.90.7
56%
2Manchester CityManchester City3878
61%
2.1
7735+42
2.9
87%
63%
21%
10.3
58%
3.9
63%
20.9
42%
1243
5421665352.00.9
60%
3Manchester UnitedManchester United3871
53%
1.9
6950+19
3.1
84%
63%
37%
9.7
53%
3.8
58%
21.2
47%
764
3621023001.81.3
52%
4Aston VillaAston Villa3865
50%
1.7
5649+7
2.8
74%
53%
29%
10.2
68%
3.9
61%
23.0
63%
583
2701681461.51.3
53%
5LiverpoolLiverpool3860
45%
1.6
6353+10
3.1
84%
61%
29%
10.5
55%
3.6
50%
20.7
37%
940
4902012481.71.4
59%
6BournemouthBournemouth3857
34%
1.5
5854+4
2.9
76%
55%
42%
10.9
63%
4.3
63%
22.5
53%
658
3531061991.51.4
50%
7SunderlandSunderland3854
37%
1.4
4248-6
2.4
71%
45%
18%
9.0
45%
4.1
55%
22.1
58%
415
1681081401.11.3
45%
8BrightonBrighton3853
37%
1.4
5246+6
2.6
82%
50%
18%
9.7
58%
4.3
63%
22.0
55%
592
1911762251.41.2
53%
9BrentfordBrentford3853
37%
1.4
5552+3
2.8
82%
53%
37%
10.2
63%
3.7
53%
19.6
34%
482
208891861.41.4
47%
10ChelseaChelsea3852
37%
1.4
5852+6
2.9
87%
66%
32%
10.4
68%
4.7
71%
23.4
68%
1114
4182674301.51.4
57%
11FulhamFulham3852
39%
1.4
4751-4
2.6
71%
50%
24%
10.5
66%
3.8
58%
20.8
39%
356
188381311.21.3
51%
12NewcastleNewcastle3849
37%
1.3
5355-2
2.8
76%
63%
34%
11.0
61%
4.2
61%
22.1
53%
696
2492491981.41.4
52%
13EvertonEverton3849
34%
1.3
4750-3
2.6
76%
45%
21%
9.4
42%
3.7
47%
21.7
58%
443
1941261231.21.3
44%
14LeedsLeeds3847
29%
1.2
4956-7
2.8
74%
55%
37%
9.5
53%
3.4
42%
21.7
47%
373
142981341.31.5
46%
15Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace3845
29%
1.2
4151-10
2.4
71%
55%
21%
9.4
47%
3.7
63%
20.2
37%
553
255932051.11.3
45%
16Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest3844
29%
1.2
4851-3
2.6
82%
53%
26%
10.1
58%
3.3
42%
22.2
53%
621
3011172031.31.3
46%
17TottenhamTottenham3841
26%
1.1
4857-9
2.8
82%
63%
26%
10.2
50%
4.7
71%
22.3
58%
713
2501772861.31.5
50%
18West HamWest Ham3839
26%
1.0
4665-19
2.9
87%
61%
29%
11.0
66%
3.8
55%
21.7
47%
449
1741121641.21.7
42%
19BurnleyBurnley3822
11%
0.6
3875-37
3.0
84%
50%
39%
9.6
53%
2.9
39%
19.5
37%
233
10048851.02.0
42%
20WolvesWolves3820
8%
0.5
2768-41
2.5
79%
45%
24%
9.4
58%
3.8
58%
23.8
66%
311
861111150.71.8
-
England: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →

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