Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, as Chelyabinsk’s home form shows a low 0.5 average conceded goals, while Enisey’s away side has already given up 1.42 on the road. The model sees a 59% chance of a home win, 28% draw, and 13% away win, with the home victory as the single most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.1 goals points to a tight, low-scoring affair, and the most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Chelyabinsk, a 17% chance. Chelyabinsk averages 1.5 goals scored at home against similar opposition, whereas Enisey averages only 0.92 away. The suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 92%, Over 21.5 fouls at 83.6%, Under 3.5 fouls at 83.2% (hit), Over 2.5 cards at 82.1% (hit), Under 11.5 corners at 81.6%, Under 10.5 corners at 72.2%, Over 23.5 fouls at 71.6%, and Under 5.5 cards at 71.1% (hit). The match is poised for a narrow, defensively dominated contest.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Chelyabinsk, failed to deliver as the match finished 0-0, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. The model had given the home side a 59% chance of victory, but the result was a stalemate. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals proved correct, hitting the 83.2% probability, and its choices for Over 2.5 cards and Under 5.5 cards also hit, at 82.1% and 71.1% respectively. Chelyabinsk’s recent form, a win after a defeat, had suggested optimism, yet the game ended in a goalless draw, matching the 28% chance of a 2-goal total that the model highlighted.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chelyabinsk win✗ Miss
58.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Enisey win✗ Miss
13.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Chelyabinsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.44
0.94
1.50
0.50
1.38
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.47
0.93
1.50
0.50
1.43
1.43
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
38% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Enisey
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.13
0.88
1.00
0.93
1.29
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (28)
0.89
1.18
0.88
1.00
0.92
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelyabinsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
64.0%
Under 1.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.9%
Under 2.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.8%
Under 3.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
36.6%
No
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
17.0%
2-0
13.9%
0-0 ✓
12.9%
1-1
12.0%
2-1
8.4%
3-0
7.1%
0-1
6.1%
3-1
4.3%
Chelyabinsk goals ↓
Enisey goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
6.1%
2.2%
0.4%
0.1%
1
17%
12%
3.3%
0.7%
0.1%
2
14%
8.4%
2.5%
0.5%
0.1%
3
7.1%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
0.0%
4
2.7%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chelyabinsk goals (down), columns = Enisey goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fakel
2.00
Rodina Moskva
2.00
Ural
1.79
Rotor Volgograd
1.65
Spartak Kostroma
1.44
KAMAZ
1.44
Enisey
1.44
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.41
Torpedo Moskva
1.35
Chelyabinsk
1.29
FK Neftekhimik
1.26
Ska-khabarovsk
1.18
Arsenal Tula
1.15
FC UFA
1.12
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.09
Chernomorets
1.03
FK Sokol Saratov
0.76
Chayka
0.65
Chelyabinsk is 0.15 points worse than Enisey in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rodina Moskva
1.71
Ural
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.38
Spartak Kostroma
1.35
KAMAZ
1.35
Fakel
1.29
Chelyabinsk
1.24
Arsenal Tula
1.24
FK Neftekhimik
1.18
Torpedo Moskva
1.09
Enisey
1.09
Chernomorets
1.09
Ska-khabarovsk
1.03
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.03
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00
FC UFA
0.97
Chayka
0.88
FK Sokol Saratov
0.47
Chelyabinsk is 0.15 goals better than Enisey in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fakel
0.65
Rotor Volgograd
0.76
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.82
Rodina Moskva
0.82
Ural
0.91
KAMAZ
1.00
Enisey
1.03
FC UFA
1.12
Torpedo Moskva
1.15
Chelyabinsk
1.18
Spartak Kostroma
1.21
FK Neftekhimik
1.21
FK Sokol Saratov
1.29
Arsenal Tula
1.29
Ska-khabarovsk
1.36
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.41
Chernomorets
1.44
Chayka
2.24
Chelyabinsk is 0.15 goals worse than Enisey in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Fakel
53%
FK Neftekhimik
51%
Arsenal Tula
50%
Enisey
50%
Ska-khabarovsk
50%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Torpedo Moskva
48%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Chelyabinsk
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Enisey
For 2.5 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.5 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chelyabinsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (16)
-
-
-
3.0
3.9
2.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
-
-
-
3.2
3.9
2.4
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
38%
50%
25%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
62%
50%
75%
-
-
-
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Enisey
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.5
5.5
-
3.1
3.0
3.3
23.0
23.0
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
2.7
0.0
4.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
5.5
5.5
-
3.1
3.1
3.2
23.0
23.0
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
44%
36%
52%
50%
50%
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
56%
64%
48%
50%
50%
-
This opponent (Chelyabinsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Arsenal Tula
12.5
KAMAZ
11.5
Ural
10.5
Torpedo Moskva
9.5
FC UFA
9.4
Fakel
9.1
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
6.3
Chernomorets
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fakel
5.0
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.6
KAMAZ
4.5
FC UFA
4.4
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Chayka
3.8
Ural
3.8
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Enisey
3.8
Chernomorets
3.7
FK Sokol Saratov
3.7
Chelyabinsk
3.7
Rodina Moskva
3.5
Ska-khabarovsk
3.4
Torpedo Moskva
3.4
Arsenal Tula
3.2
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Fakel
26.6
Ural
25.2
Arsenal Tula
23.5
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
39.5%
Under 9.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
64.9%
Under 3.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
83.6%
Under 21.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chelyabinsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.56
0.38
0.50
0.12
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.12
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
69% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Enisey
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.40
0.56
0.31
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.57
0.43
0.56
0.31
0.58
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelyabinsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chelyabinsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chelyabinsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
0.56
1.00
0.38
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.53
1.00
0.38
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
44% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Enisey
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.73
0.31
0.69
0.43
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (28)
0.32
0.75
0.31
0.69
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelyabinsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chelyabinsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Chelyabinsk's squad is €3m more valuable than Enisey's (€9m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (11)
€7m
TM (10)
€5m
FAK (10)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
Chelyabinsk's attack is €2m more valuable than Enisey's (€4m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (4)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FAK (4)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Chelyabinsk and Enisey have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
Chelyabinsk's defence is €2m more valuable than Enisey's (€3m vs €2m).
Russia: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →