Chelyabinsk faces Enisey in the Russia: First League, with the away team's recent form suggesting a positive storyline. Enisey is coming off a draw, having previously drawn with KAMAZ 2-2. In contrast, Chelyabinsk has struggled, suffering two straight defeats after a draw and a loss.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.3 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.1%. Chelyabinsk's home form is mediocre, scoring 1.42 goals on average and conceding 1.83, while facing opponents of similar strength. Enisey's away form is also average, scoring 0.9 goals and conceding 1.7, when facing similar opponents.
The model's selection is the away win, with a 40% probability. The home win percentage is 35%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 40%. The model's selection for the match is the away win, with the suggested picks being the Over 1.5, which has an 84.8% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chelyabinsk win
37.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Enisey win
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Chelyabinsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.43
1.36
1.64
0.69
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.00
1.43
1.36
1.64
0.69
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Enisey
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.03
1.12
0.38
1.57
1.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.33
1.03
1.12
0.38
1.57
1.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelyabinsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.8%
Under 2.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.7%
Under 3.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.1%
No
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
8.3%
2-2
6.8%
1-0
5.2%
0-1
5.1%
2-0
5.1%
0-2
5.0%
Chelyabinsk goals ↓
Enisey goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
5.1%
5.0%
2.7%
1.1%
1
5.2%
11%
8.3%
4.5%
1.8%
2
5.1%
8.3%
6.8%
3.7%
1.5%
3
2.8%
4.6%
3.8%
2.0%
0.8%
4
1.2%
1.9%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chelyabinsk goals (down), columns = Enisey goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Sochi
2.57
Nizhny Novgorod
2.29
Veles
2.14
Ural
2.00
FC UFA
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.67
Spartak Kostroma
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Enisey
1.17
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Arsenal Tula
1.12
Leningradets
1.00
Tekstilshchik
0.71
KAMAZ
0.71
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Ska-khabarovsk
0.43
Chelyabinsk is 0.50 points worse than Enisey in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nizhny Novgorod
3.00
FC Sochi
2.29
Ural
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.83
Veles
1.57
Enisey
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.33
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
FC UFA
1.17
Chelyabinsk
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Ska-khabarovsk
0.71
Leningradets
0.67
FK Neftekhimik
0.62
Tekstilshchik
0.29
Chelyabinsk is 0.50 goals worse than Enisey in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ural
0.50
Torpedo Moskva
0.67
Leningradets
0.83
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.17
Enisey
1.33
Nizhny Novgorod
1.43
Veles
1.43
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
KAMAZ
1.57
Arsenal Tula
1.62
Ska-khabarovsk
2.00
Chelyabinsk
2.17
Chelyabinsk is 0.83 goals worse than Enisey in terms of goals conceded per game (2.17 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sochi
54%
FK Neftekhimik
54%
Veles
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk
52%
Arsenal Tula
52%
Leningradets
50%
Nizhny Novgorod
50%
Chelyabinsk
50%
Tekstilshchik
49%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Ska-khabarovsk
46%
FC UFA
46%
KAMAZ
46%
Ural
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Chelyabinsk
For 5.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 3.3 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Enisey
For 2.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 6.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 0.8 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 18.0 · Total 32.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chelyabinsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
11.0
-
2.0
2.4
1.6
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (49)
11.0
11.0
-
2.0
2.4
1.7
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
-
28%
33%
23%
-
-
-
% under line
0%
0%
-
72%
67%
77%
-
-
-
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Enisey
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
6.0
6.0
-
1.7
1.7
1.8
32.0
32.0
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
4.0
-
4.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
6.0
6.0
-
1.6
1.7
1.6
32.0
32.0
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
24%
23%
25%
100%
100%
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
76%
77%
75%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Chelyabinsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
KAMAZ
15.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
Arsenal Tula
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Tekstilshchik
9.0
Leningradets
8.9
Veles
8.8
FK Neftekhimik
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Ural
8.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tekstilshchik
5.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
FC Sochi
4.4
Veles
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
FC Sochi
27.1
FK Neftekhimik
27.0
FC UFA
27.0
Ural
26.8
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.3%
Under 9.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.1%
Under 3.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.1%
Under 21.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Chelyabinsk or Draw
62.9%
Avg Implied -
38%
25%
37%
covers Chelyabinsk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk or Enisey
74.9%
Avg Implied -
38%
25%
37%
covers Chelyabinsk + Enisey
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Enisey
62.2%
Avg Implied -
38%
25%
37%
covers Draw + Enisey
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Chelyabinsk over/under 0.5
Over
80.8%
Under
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 1.5
Over
49.2%
Under
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 2.5
Over
23.0%
Under
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 3.5
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 0.5
Over
80.5%
Under
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 1.5
Over
48.7%
Under
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 2.5
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 3.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Chelyabinsk, so a minus line means Chelyabinsk give that many goals of a start and Enisey receive them. At -1, Chelyabinsk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Chelyabinsk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Chelyabinsk)
Chelyabinsk -2
8.0%
Draw -2
11.5%
Enisey +2
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Chelyabinsk)
Chelyabinsk -1
19.6%
Draw -1
18.2%
Enisey +1
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Chelyabinsk)
Chelyabinsk +1
62.9%
Draw +1
18.0%
Enisey -1
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Chelyabinsk)
Chelyabinsk +2
80.9%
Draw +2
11.3%
Enisey -2
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chelyabinsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.86
0.86
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.60
0.70
0.86
0.86
0.38
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Enisey
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.33
0.56
0.12
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.53
0.33
0.56
0.12
0.50
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelyabinsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chelyabinsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chelyabinsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.50
0.79
0.31
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.40
0.73
0.50
0.79
0.31
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Enisey
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.56
0.25
1.07
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.80
0.70
0.56
0.25
1.07
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelyabinsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chelyabinsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (28)
€18m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Chelyabinsk's squad is €3m more valuable than Enisey's (€9m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Chelyabinsk's attack is €2m more valuable than Enisey's (€4m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Chelyabinsk and Enisey have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (11)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Chelyabinsk's defence is €2m more valuable than Enisey's (€3m vs €2m).
Russia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →