The contest between Chernihiv and Inhulets is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win at 36 %. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, and the most probable single score is 1-1, with a 13.7 % chance. Chernihiv, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while Inhulets, away against a weaker opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The draw probability sits at 29 %, and the away win probability is 35 %. The suggested selections are: Under 7.5 (99.4 %), Under 6.5 (98.2 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.6 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.4 %), Under 5.5 (94.9 %), Under 4.5 (87.3 %), Away under 2.5 goals (85.5 %), and Home under 2.5 goals (85.2 %). Chernihiv’s recent form shows a draw streak, while Inhulets has endured two consecutive defeats.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chernihiv win
34.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inhulets win
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Chernihiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.13
1.38
1.25
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.92
1.15
1.29
1.43
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (16)
1.06
1.12
1.44
1.11
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Inhulets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inhulets
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.23
1.57
1.43
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.89
1.47
1.25
1.88
0.64
1.18
vs Weaker (11)
1.73
0.82
2.00
0.83
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.1%
Under 1.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.2%
Under 2.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.2%
Under 3.5
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-2
8.5%
0-1
8.2%
0-0
8.1%
2-1
8.0%
1-0
7.7%
0-2
6.5%
2-0
5.8%
Chernihiv goals ↓
Inhulets goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
8.2%
6.5%
3.0%
1.0%
1
7.7%
14%
8.5%
3.9%
1.3%
2
5.8%
8.0%
5.5%
2.5%
0.9%
3
2.5%
3.5%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chernihiv goals (down), columns = Inhulets goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
SK Poltava
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Chernihiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.60
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Chernihiv is 0.60 points worse than Inhulets in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
SK Poltava
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Chernihiv is 0.40 goals worse than Inhulets in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.40
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.60
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Inhulets
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Chernihiv is 0.60 goals better than Inhulets in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Chernihiv or Draw
62.4%
Avg Implied -
34%
28%
38%
covers Chernihiv + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv or Inhulets
71.7%
Avg Implied -
34%
28%
38%
covers Chernihiv + Inhulets
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Inhulets
66.0%
Avg Implied -
34%
28%
38%
covers Draw + Inhulets
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5
Over
72.8%
Under
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5
Over
37.4%
Under
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 0.5
Over
74.9%
Under
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 1.5
Over
40.2%
Under
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 2.5
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Chernihiv, so a minus line means Chernihiv give that many goals of a start and Inhulets receive them. At -1, Chernihiv must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Chernihiv win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Chernihiv)
Chernihiv -2
5.4%
Draw -2
10.2%
Inhulets +2
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Chernihiv)
Chernihiv -1
15.5%
Draw -1
18.5%
Inhulets +1
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Chernihiv)
Chernihiv +1
62.4%
Draw +1
19.7%
Inhulets -1
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Chernihiv)
Chernihiv +2
82.0%
Draw +2
11.4%
Inhulets -2
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chernihiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.81
0.56
0.21
0.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.69
0.57
0.71
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.44
1.00
0.44
0.14
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Inhulets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inhulets
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.47
0.57
0.71
0.31
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.32
0.58
0.50
0.88
0.18
0.36
vs Weaker (11)
0.64
0.27
0.67
0.50
0.60
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chernihiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.56
0.69
0.36
0.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.46
0.71
0.71
0.17
0.17
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.69
0.44
0.67
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Inhulets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inhulets
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
1.00
0.71
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.89
0.75
1.00
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.55
1.33
0.33
0.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Inhulets · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kristian Svystun25%
Volodymyr Bilotserkovets20%
Vitaliy Faraseyenko17%
Ivan Losenko11%
Roman Volokhatyi8%
Marian Mysyk0%
Mykhailo Shershen0%
Oleksiy Palamarchuk0%
Oleksandr Kozak0%
Serhiy Kyslenko0%
Bogdan Mogilnyi0%
Oleksandr Piatov0%
Valerii Sad0%
Stanislav-Nuri Malysh0%
Maksym Melnychuk0%
Ilya Gadzhuk0%
Denis Sergeevich Rezepov0%
Oleksandr Dykhtiaruk0%
Vitalii Dubilei0%
Artem Benediuk0%
Oleh Pushkarov0%
Radion Lisnyak0%
Oleksandr Zhovtenko0%
Vitalii Katrych0%
Volodymyr Vilivald0%
Vladyslav Chaban0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oleksandr Dykhtiaruk40%
Maksym Melnychuk25%
Valerii Sad22%
Denis Sergeevich Rezepov20%
Oleksandr Zhovtenko20%
Roman Volokhatyi17%
Vitaliy Faraseyenko17%
Vitalii Katrych14%
Serhiy Kyslenko12%
Ilya Gadzhuk12%
Ivan Losenko11%
Stanislav-Nuri Malysh9%
Oleh Pushkarov8%
Marian Mysyk0%
Mykhailo Shershen0%
Oleksiy Palamarchuk0%
Oleksandr Kozak0%
Bogdan Mogilnyi0%
Oleksandr Piatov0%
Volodymyr Bilotserkovets0%
Vitalii Dubilei0%
Artem Benediuk0%
Radion Lisnyak0%
Volodymyr Vilivald0%
Kristian Svystun0%
Vladyslav Chaban0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stanislav-Nuri Malysh9%
Oleksandr Piatov8%
Marian Mysyk0%
Mykhailo Shershen0%
Oleksiy Palamarchuk0%
Oleksandr Kozak0%
Serhiy Kyslenko0%
Bogdan Mogilnyi0%
Valerii Sad0%
Maksym Melnychuk0%
Roman Volokhatyi0%
Volodymyr Bilotserkovets0%
Ilya Gadzhuk0%
Denis Sergeevich Rezepov0%
Vitaliy Faraseyenko0%
Oleksandr Dykhtiaruk0%
Vitalii Dubilei0%
Artem Benediuk0%
Ivan Losenko0%
Oleh Pushkarov0%
Radion Lisnyak0%
Oleksandr Zhovtenko0%
Vitalii Katrych0%
Volodymyr Vilivald0%
Kristian Svystun0%
Vladyslav Chaban0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Oleh Pushkarov8%
Marian Mysyk0%
Mykhailo Shershen0%
Oleksiy Palamarchuk0%
Oleksandr Kozak0%
Serhiy Kyslenko0%
Bogdan Mogilnyi0%
Oleksandr Piatov0%
Valerii Sad0%
Stanislav-Nuri Malysh0%
Maksym Melnychuk0%
Roman Volokhatyi0%
Volodymyr Bilotserkovets0%
Ilya Gadzhuk0%
Denis Sergeevich Rezepov0%
Vitaliy Faraseyenko0%
Oleksandr Dykhtiaruk0%
Vitalii Dubilei0%
Artem Benediuk0%
Ivan Losenko0%
Radion Lisnyak0%
Oleksandr Zhovtenko0%
Vitalii Katrych0%
Volodymyr Vilivald0%
Kristian Svystun0%
Vladyslav Chaban0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
Chernihiv and Inhulets have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
Chernihiv and Inhulets have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
Chernihiv and Inhulets have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Chernihiv and Inhulets have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →
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Viktoriya Mykolaivka
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
Kulykiv
Prykarpattia
Metal Kharkiv
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
UCSA
Nyva Ternopil
Yarud Mariupol'
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Kolos Kovalivka II
Polissya II
Probiy Horodenka