The clash between Chernihiv and Prykarpattia is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are almost evenly split: a 36% chance for Chernihiv, 28% for a draw and 35% for Prykarpattia. The expected total goals hover at 2.7, with the most likely total being two goals, a 26% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.6% chance.
Chernihiv, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 1.44 goals scored and 1.11 conceded. Prykarpattia, on the road, averages 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded against comparable opposition. Chernihiv’s recent form shows a streak of one win and four defeats, while Prykarpattia comes off a two-game winning run.
The model’s selections include: Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Under 5.5 (94.5%), Under 4.5 (86.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (85.2%), and Home under 2.5 goals (84.5%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chernihiv win
36.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Prykarpattia win
35.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Chernihiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.13
1.38
1.25
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.92
1.15
1.29
1.43
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (16)
1.06
1.12
1.44
1.11
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Prykarpattia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Prykarpattia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.13
1.06
0.88
1.14
1.43
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.75
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (24)
1.17
1.00
1.08
0.77
1.27
1.27
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.9%
Under 1.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.1%
Under 2.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.1%
Under 3.5
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.6%
No
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
8.2%
0-0
8.1%
1-0
8.1%
0-1
7.9%
2-0
6.3%
0-2
6.0%
Chernihiv goals ↓
Prykarpattia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
7.9%
6.0%
2.7%
0.9%
1
8.1%
14%
8.2%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.3%
8.3%
5.5%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.8%
3.8%
2.5%
1.1%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.3%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chernihiv goals (down), columns = Prykarpattia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
SK Poltava
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Chernihiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.60
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Chernihiv is 0.60 points worse than Prykarpattia in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
SK Poltava
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Chernihiv is 0.60 goals worse than Prykarpattia in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.40
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.60
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Inhulets
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Chernihiv and Prykarpattia are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Chernihiv or Draw
64.9%
Avg Implied -
36%
28%
35%
covers Chernihiv + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv or Prykarpattia
71.6%
Avg Implied -
36%
28%
35%
covers Chernihiv + Prykarpattia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Prykarpattia
63.6%
Avg Implied -
36%
28%
35%
covers Draw + Prykarpattia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5
Over
74.1%
Under
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5
Over
39.2%
Under
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prykarpattia over/under 0.5
Over
73.4%
Under
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prykarpattia over/under 1.5
Over
38.2%
Under
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prykarpattia over/under 2.5
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prykarpattia over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Chernihiv, so a minus line means Chernihiv give that many goals of a start and Prykarpattia receive them. At -1, Chernihiv must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Chernihiv win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Chernihiv)
Chernihiv -2
6.2%
Draw -2
11.0%
Prykarpattia +2
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Chernihiv)
Chernihiv -1
17.1%
Draw -1
19.3%
Prykarpattia +1
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Chernihiv)
Chernihiv +1
64.9%
Draw +1
18.9%
Prykarpattia -1
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Chernihiv)
Chernihiv +2
83.7%
Draw +2
10.5%
Prykarpattia -2
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chernihiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.81
0.56
0.21
0.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.69
0.57
0.71
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.44
1.00
0.44
0.14
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Prykarpattia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Prykarpattia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.44
0.62
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.54
0.38
0.54
0.64
0.55
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prykarpattia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prykarpattia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prykarpattia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chernihiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.56
0.69
0.36
0.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.46
0.71
0.71
0.17
0.17
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.69
0.44
0.67
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Prykarpattia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Prykarpattia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.62
0.25
0.64
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.25
0.50
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.46
0.69
0.23
0.64
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prykarpattia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prykarpattia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prykarpattia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
Chernihiv and Prykarpattia have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
Chernihiv and Prykarpattia have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
Chernihiv and Prykarpattia have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Chernihiv and Prykarpattia have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
Kulykiv
Metal Kharkiv
Inhulets
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
UCSA
Nyva Ternopil
Yarud Mariupol'
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Kolos Kovalivka II
Polissya II
Probiy Horodenka