Cherno More Varna is expected to edge out Dunav Ruse, with a predicted scoreline of 1-1 being the most likely outcome. The expected total number of goals is 2.7. Cherno More Varna has been struggling at home, scoring an average of 1.14 goals and conceding 1.43, while facing opponents of similar strength. Dunav Ruse, on the other hand, has been scoring 1.2 goals and conceding 1.0 when playing away against similar opponents. The model's selection for the match result is a home win, with a 47% probability of Cherno More Varna taking the three points. The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 47%, 28%, and 26% respectively. The model's selections include Over 1.5 with a 75.7% probability and an edge of 6%, Home or Draw with a 74.5% probability, Home or Away with a 72.4% probability, and Under 3.5 with a 72.1% probability.
Results analysis
Cherno More Varna’s win over Dunav Ruse, 3-1, extended their recent victory, while Dunav returned to the league after a defeat. The model’s favourite, Home win, came through, matching the 47 % probability it had assigned. The match’s total goals of four fell well below the predicted 2.7, and the most likely score of 1-1 did not materialise. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 at 99.4 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7 %, Under 6.5 at 98.1 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.4 %, Under 5.5 at 94.6 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 92.7 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 92.6 %, and Home under 2.5 HT goals at 92.0 %. The model’s selections proved accurate across the board.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cherno More Varna win✓ Hit
46.7%
Avg Implied 57.2% · @ 1.61
Edge
-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
BetVictor
1.65
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 25.6% · @ 3.58
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.75
Dafabet
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
Pinnacle
3.66
Dunav Ruse win✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied 17.2% · @ 5.35
Edge
+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
6.00
Pinnacle
5.63
10Bet
5.60
BetVictor
5.50
Unibet
5.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cherno More Varna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.30
0.87
1.33
0.87
1.27
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.33
1.25
1.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
1.29
0.73
1.27
0.92
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunav Ruse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunav Ruse
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.73
1.40
0.47
1.40
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.30
0.65
1.30
0.50
1.30
0.80
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
0.43
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Cherno More Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.7%
@ 1.34+6.6%
Under 1.5
24.3%
@ 2.99-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Under
Unibet
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.99
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.8%
@ 2.08+4.9%
Under 2.5
50.2%
@ 1.69-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
Bet365
2.15
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.11
Under
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.77
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.8%
@ 3.75+3.1%
Under 3.5
72.2%
@ 1.23-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
888Sport
4.00
Pinnacle
3.80
Under
Unibet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.24
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.0%
@ 2.05+9.1%
No
46.0%
@ 1.68-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.12
Betfair
2.10
888Sport
2.05
Betano
2.05
No
Unibet
1.75
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.67
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 6.59+6.6%
1-0
9.7%@ 5.20+1.3%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.46+3.5%
2-0
8.5%@ 6.30+1.5%
0-0
8.2%@ 8.23+2.8%
1-2
6.6%@ 16.10+3.9%
0-1
6.5%@ 11.23+2.6%
2-2
5.2%@ 17.27+2.6%
Cherno More Varna goals ↓
Dunav Ruse goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
6.5%
4.2%
1.6%
0.4%
1
9.7%
13%
6.6%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.5%
9.4%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.4%
4.9%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.7%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cherno More Varna goals (down), columns = Dunav Ruse goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.29
Spartak Varna
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.57
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Cherno More Varna and Dunav Ruse are level in average points per game (both 0.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
2.86
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Spartak Varna
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Cherno More Varna is 0.14 goals better than Dunav Ruse in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arda Kardzhali
0.57
Levski Sofia
0.57
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.14
Cherno More Varna
2.29
Cherno More Varna is 0.29 goals worse than Dunav Ruse in terms of goals conceded per game (2.29 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
63%
Slavia Sofia
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cherno More Varna
For 4.1 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 10.7 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dunav Ruse
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Cherno More Varna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.5
8.2
2.2
1.8
2.5
24.5
25.5
23.6
vs Stronger (13)
10.7
13.0
9.8
2.7
1.1
4.5
23.9
27.5
22.4
vs Similar (37)
8.1
8.8
7.2
2.0
2.1
1.9
24.8
25.1
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
45%
46%
32%
28%
36%
75%
91%
62%
% under line
54%
55%
54%
68%
72%
64%
25%
9%
38%
This opponent (Dunav Ruse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunav Ruse
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (14)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Cherno More Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.4
Botev Plovdiv
10.2
Spartak Varna
10.1
CSKA Sofia
9.7
Levski Sofia
9.6
Ludogorets
9.5
Botev Vratsa
9.4
CSKA 1948
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.3
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Septemvri Sofia
8.9
Arda Kardzhali
8.7
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
4.8
Botev Vratsa
4.8
Spartak Varna
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.8
Cherno More Varna
4.8
Ludogorets
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.6
Slavia Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.1
Levski Sofia
24.5
Botev Vratsa
24.5
Arda Kardzhali
24.1
Slavia Sofia
23.8
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.8
Septemvri Sofia
23.0
Spartak Varna
22.9
CSKA 1948
22.8
Ludogorets
22.4
CSKA Sofia
22.3
Botev Plovdiv
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.5%
@ 2.31+2.4%
Under 9.5
57.5%
@ 1.54-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Superbet
2.40
1xBet
2.33
Pinnacle
2.30
Marathonbet
2.29
Under
Unibet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
64.8%
@ 1.59+7.4%
Under 3.5
35.2%
@ 2.13-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Under
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.12
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
65.3%
Under 21.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cherno More Varna or Draw✓ Hit
74.3%
Avg Implied 82.9% · @ 1.12
Edge
-8.6%
47%
28%
26%
covers Cherno More Varna + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Cherno More Varna or Dunav Ruse✓ Hit
72.4%
Avg Implied 75.0% · @ 1.24
Edge
-2.6%
47%
28%
26%
covers Cherno More Varna + Dunav Ruse
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Draw or Dunav Ruse✗ Miss
53.3%
Avg Implied 42.1% · @ 2.21
Edge
+11.2%
47%
28%
26%
covers Draw + Dunav Ruse
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.35
Betano
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Unibet
2.17
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cherno More Varna over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.0%
@ 1.16-1.0%
Under
21.0%
@ 4.62+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
888Sport
1.18
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.75
888Sport
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Cherno More Varna over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
46.2%
@ 1.85-3.9%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.86+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.96
BetVictor
1.91
888Sport
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
Betano
1.88
Under
Unibet
1.93
10Bet
1.93
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Cherno More Varna over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
20.7%
@ 3.72-4.2%
Under
79.3%
@ 1.23+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.90
Pinnacle
3.90
BetVictor
3.90
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Under
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Cherno More Varna over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.4%
@ 8.56-3.6%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.05+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
9.50
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.60
Betfair
8.50
Betano
7.20
Under
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.05
888Sport
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Dunav Ruse over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.8%
@ 1.71+12.7%
Under
33.2%
@ 2.02-12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.73
Bet365
1.73
888Sport
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
2.07
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Dunav Ruse over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.2%
@ 4.53+9.8%
Under
69.8%
@ 1.16-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
888Sport
4.80
Marathonbet
4.75
BetVictor
4.75
Superbet
4.65
Under
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Dunav Ruse over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 13.15+2.8%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.02-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
17.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Dunav Ruse over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 51.00-97.4%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cherno More Varna, so a minus line means Cherno More Varna give that many goals of a start and Dunav Ruse receive them. At -1, Cherno More Varna must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cherno More Varna win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cherno More Varna)Actual: Draw
Cherno More Varna -2
10.0%
@ 5.58-6.0%
Draw -2
14.5%
@ 4.58-5.0%
Dunav Ruse +2
75.4%
@ 1.38+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.70
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.10
Draw
Marathonbet
4.80
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.25
Away
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
Handicap -1 (Cherno More Varna)Actual: Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna -1
24.6%
@ 2.69-8.7%
Draw -1
22.1%
@ 3.28-5.1%
Dunav Ruse +1
53.3%
@ 2.26+13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Draw
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
Unibet
3.25
Betfair
3.10
Away
10Bet
2.35
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Unibet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.17
Handicap +1 (Cherno More Varna)Actual: Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna +1
74.3%
@ 1.13-3.1%
Draw +1
15.3%
@ 5.94+0.6%
Dunav Ruse -1
10.4%
@ 11.20+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.33
Away
Bet365
15.00
Unibet
11.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Handicap +2 (Cherno More Varna)Actual: Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna +2
89.6%
@ 1.03-2.5%
Draw +2
7.3%
@ 17.00+1.7%
Dunav Ruse -2
3.1%
@ 41.00+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Away
Bet365
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cherno More Varna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.43
0.40
0.40
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.29
0.54
0.27
0.55
0.31
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunav Ruse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunav Ruse
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.30
0.60
0.20
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.25
0.40
0.20
0.50
0.30
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.14
1.25
0.00
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Cherno More Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
69.2%
@ 1.41+3.7%
Under 0.5
30.8%
@ 2.69-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
BetVictor
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Under
Unibet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.76
William Hil
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.0%
@ 2.97+4.8%
Under 1.5
64.0%
@ 1.35-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.27
Betfair
3.20
Betano
3.15
1xBet
2.99
Marathonbet
2.99
Under
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Betano
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.5%
@ 7.70+4.5%
Under 2.5
83.5%
@ 1.05-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.50
William Hil
8.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.60
Marathonbet
7.60
Under
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
BetVictor
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cherno More Varna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
57.6%
@ 1.75+4.5%
Under
42.4%
@ 1.98-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.76
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Under
Unibet
2.06
Superbet
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.93
Cherno More Varna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
20.2%
@ 5.15+2.2%
Under
79.8%
@ 1.13-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.10
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Cherno More Varna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.0%
@ 10.50-1.0%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.03+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Dunav Ruse over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.3%
@ 3.10+5.4%
Under
64.7%
@ 1.32-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.38
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.10
Superbet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
Under
Unibet
1.36
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Dunav Ruse over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 11.25-1.1%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.03+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
12.00
1xBet
12.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Dunav Ruse over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cherno More Varna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.87
0.47
0.93
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.75
0.45
0.73
0.62
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunav Ruse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunav Ruse
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
0.80
0.27
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.40
0.90
0.30
0.80
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.29
0.75
0.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Cherno More Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cherno More Varna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cherno More Varna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cherno More Varna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunav Ruse over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunav Ruse over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunav Ruse over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.7%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.05
888Sport
1.05
1xBet
1.03
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.0%
1.02
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.8%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Unibet
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.5%
1.05
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
BetVictor
1.05
-4.5%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.8%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
79.4%
1.18
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
+1.6%
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.3%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Unibet
1.23
+4.2%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
79.0%
1.16
Betano
1.19
888Sport
1.18
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
Superbet
1.17
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.7%
1.34
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
75.4%
1.38
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
-
+10.9%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
74.3%
1.12
Betano
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
-8.6%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
74.3%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.4%
1.24
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.2%
1.23
Unibet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.24
-3.1%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cherno More Varna · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Georgi Lazarov21%
Weslen Junior17%
João Pedro12%
Vasil Panayotov11%
Asen Chandarov11%
Celso Sidney11%
Dimitar Tonev10%
Berk Beyhan10%
Nikolay Zlatev5%
Plamen Iliev0%
Tsvetomir Panov0%
Ertan Tombak0%
Zhivko Atanasov0%
David Teles0%
Andreias Calcan0%
Dani Martín0%
Vlatko Drobarov0%
Kristian Tomov0%
Asen Donchev0%
Martin Milushev0%
Rosen Stefanov0%
Gustavo França0%
João Bandaro0%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo0%
Jorge Padilla0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Weslen Junior33%
Tsvetomir Panov27%
Asen Chandarov26%
Nikolay Zlatev25%
Asen Donchev21%
Andreias Calcan20%
Berk Beyhan20%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo20%
David Teles19%
Dani Martín19%
Ertan Tombak14%
Jorge Padilla12%
Vasil Panayotov11%
Zhivko Atanasov11%
Vlatko Drobarov11%
Celso Sidney11%
Dimitar Tonev10%
Rosen Stefanov8%
Plamen Iliev0%
João Pedro0%
Kristian Tomov0%
Martin Milushev0%
Gustavo França0%
João Bandaro0%
Georgi Lazarov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martin Milushev20%
Asen Donchev11%
David Teles6%
Dani Martín6%
Vasil Panayotov6%
Asen Chandarov5%
Plamen Iliev0%
Tsvetomir Panov0%
Ertan Tombak0%
Zhivko Atanasov0%
Andreias Calcan0%
Vlatko Drobarov0%
Dimitar Tonev0%
Weslen Junior0%
João Pedro0%
Kristian Tomov0%
Celso Sidney0%
Rosen Stefanov0%
Nikolay Zlatev0%
Gustavo França0%
Berk Beyhan0%
João Bandaro0%
Georgi Lazarov0%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo0%
Jorge Padilla0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Georgi Lazarov16%
Nikolay Zlatev15%
João Pedro12%
Asen Chandarov5%
Plamen Iliev0%
Tsvetomir Panov0%
Vasil Panayotov0%
Ertan Tombak0%
Zhivko Atanasov0%
David Teles0%
Andreias Calcan0%
Dani Martín0%
Vlatko Drobarov0%
Dimitar Tonev0%
Weslen Junior0%
Kristian Tomov0%
Asen Donchev0%
Martin Milushev0%
Celso Sidney0%
Rosen Stefanov0%
Gustavo França0%
Berk Beyhan0%
João Bandaro0%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo0%
Jorge Padilla0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Cherno More Varna's squad is €2m more valuable than Dunav Ruse's (€6m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
Cherno More Varna's attack is €2m more valuable than Dunav Ruse's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
Cherno More Varna and Dunav Ruse have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Cherno More Varna and Dunav Ruse have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Levski Sofia
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Spartak Varna
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv