Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Result & Analysis

Cherno More Varna are the clear favourites, their 65% chance of victory reflecting a strong home form that averages 1.89 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s pick is a home win, and the expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly high-scoring game. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13.2% probability, while the most common total is two goals at 26%. Lokomotiv Plovdiv, on the back of five straight defeats, averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.75 conceded away, a weaker offensive and defensive record that the model weighs heavily against them.

The probabilities are 65% for a home win, 23% for a draw, and 12% for an away win. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 90.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 90.0%, Under 11.5 corners at 82.9%, Over 21.5 fouls at 81.0%, Over 3.5 cards at 77.7%, Over 1.5 goals at 75.3% (hit), Under 10.5 corners at 73.8%, and Under 3.5 goals at 72.3% (hit).

The upset came as Lokomotiv Plovdiv, riding a five-match losing streak, overturned Cherno More Varna’s 1-2 expectation. The pre-match favourite was a home win, given a 65% probability, but the model’s pick proved wrong. The final score of 1-2 confirmed an away victory. The model’s other selections performed well: Over 1.5 goals, with a 75.3% chance, hit; Under 3.5 goals, at 72.3%, also hit. Cherno More’s recent form had slipped after a 1-3 loss, while Lokomotiv continued to struggle on the road, yet they managed to secure the win. The match ended with an unexpected reversal of fortunes.