Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna Result & Analysis

Cherno More Varna’s defensive record at home shows they concede 1.4 goals per match, while Spartak Varna, on the road, allows 1.46 goals against similar opposition. Both sides have struggled to find the net, with Cherno More scoring only 0.8 goals per game and Spartak 0.54. The model therefore favours a tight, low-scoring affair, predicting a 1-0 win for the home side. The expected total of 2.1 goals translates to a 28 % chance of exactly two goals, with the most likely scoreline 1-0 at a 15.5 % probability. Home win odds sit at 51 %, a draw at 30 %, and an away win at 19 %. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 goals at 83.8 %, Over 2.5 cards at 81.5 %, Under 11.5 corners at 77.5 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 77.2 %, and Under 5.5 cards at 72.0 %. Both teams have recently recovered from a win and a heavy defeat respectively, but the defensive mismatch suggests the home side will edge the match.

The upset came early as Spartak Varna, riding a 3-game win streak after a brutal 0-6 loss to Levski Sofia, overturned the pre-match favourite Cherno More Varna, who had just snapped a five-match losing run with a 3-1 win over Dunav Ruse. The final score was 0-3, an away victory that left the model’s pick of a home win wrong. The model had given the home side a 51 % chance of triumph, yet the outcome was an away win. The only other selection was the model’s Under 3.5 goal pick, which hit with an 83.8 % probability. The predicted most likely total of 2 goals did not materialise, as the match produced three goals.