Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, coming off a draw, faces CSKA Sofia II, on a 2-game winning run. The home side's recent form suggests they have been conceding a goal on average, while scoring 1.4 goals at home against stronger opponents. In contrast, CSKA Sofia II have been scoring 2 goals away from home against weaker opponents, conceding 1.3 goals. The expected total goals is 2.1, with the most likely total goals being 2.
The model favours a home win, with a 34% chance of Chernomorets 1919 Burgas taking the three points. The away win percentage is also 34%, while the draw percentage is 33%. The model's selection is the Home win, with an Under 3.5 total goals also suggested at 83.8%. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.9%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as CSKA Sofia II edged Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1-0, overturning the model’s home-win call. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 34 % probability and proved wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away win. The model’s selections all hit: Home under 3.5 goals at 97.8 %, Away under 3.5 goals also 97.8 %, Home under 2.5 goals91.0 %, Away under 2.5 goals91.0 %, Away +2 handicap86.4 %, Home +2 handicap86.3 %, Under 3.583.8 %, and Home under 1.5 goals71.7 %. Chernomorets’ recent form shows two straight defeats, while CSKA Sofia II continues a three-game winning streak. The match delivered a tidy, low-scoring finish that matched the model’s low-goal predictions.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win✗ Miss
33.6%
Avg Implied 44.4% · @ 2.01
Edge
-10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.18
1xBet
2.05
Dafabet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.03
Betano
2.02
Draw✗ Miss
32.6%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.08
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.20
Dafabet
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Betano
3.10
CSKA Sofia II win✓ Hit
33.7%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.37
Edge
+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Pinnacle
3.49
1xBet
3.48
Betano
3.45
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.00
1.20
0.53
1.20
1.47
vs Stronger (5)
2.00
0.80
3.00
1.00
1.33
0.67
vs Similar (25)
1.04
1.04
0.92
0.46
1.17
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.93
2.13
0.73
1.80
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.36
0.73
0.40
0.40
2.17
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
2.32
1.05
3.00
0.90
1.56
1.22
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
63.4%
@ 1.32-5.4%
Under 1.5
36.6%
@ 2.92+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.33
Betfair
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Under
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
3.00
888Sport
2.90
1xBet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.88
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.1%
@ 2.06-9.4%
Under 2.5
64.9%
@ 1.65+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Under
Bet365
1.70
1xBet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Betfair
1.65
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.2%
@ 3.66-8.7%
Under 3.5
83.8%
@ 1.21+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
888Sport
3.70
Unibet
3.60
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Under
888Sport
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.7%
@ 1.84-6.1%
No
56.3%
@ 1.82+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.91
888Sport
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
No
1xBet
1.85
William Hil
1.83
888Sport
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Unibet
1.81
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%@ 5.69+8.1%
0-0
13.6%@ 7.77+8.6%
0-1 ✓
11.5%@ 8.27+6.8%
1-0
11.5%@ 6.30+5.4%
1-2
7.1%@ 11.04+3.6%
2-1
7.1%@ 8.30+2.4%
0-2
6.8%@ 14.62+4.1%
2-0
6.7%@ 8.90+2.4%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas goals ↓
CSKA Sofia II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
12%
6.8%
2.4%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.1%
2.5%
0.7%
2
6.7%
7.1%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
3
2.4%
2.5%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chernomorets 1919 Burgas goals (down), columns = CSKA Sofia II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas is 0.43 points worse than CSKA Sofia II in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas is 1.14 goals worse than CSKA Sofia II in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas is 0.43 goals better than CSKA Sofia II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or Draw✗ Miss
66.3%
Avg Implied 73.4% · @ 1.25
Edge
-7.2%
34%
33%
34%
covers Chernomorets 1919 Burgas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.29
Unibet
1.29
William Hil
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Betano
1.25
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or CSKA Sofia II✓ Hit
67.4%
Avg Implied 71.5% · @ 1.28
Edge
-4.2%
34%
33%
34%
covers Chernomorets 1919 Burgas + CSKA Sofia II
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Draw or CSKA Sofia II✓ Hit
66.4%
Avg Implied 55.1% · @ 1.67
Edge
+11.3%
34%
33%
34%
covers Draw + CSKA Sofia II
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.75
William Hil
1.73
Betfair
1.73
888Sport
1.73
Bet365
1.67
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
65.0%
@ 1.23-9.0%
Under
35.0%
@ 3.50+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.23
Under
1xBet
3.50
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.3%
@ 2.19-13.5%
Under
71.7%
@ 1.57+13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.17
1xBet
2.17
Pinnacle
2.17
Under
Pinnacle
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Unibet
1.49
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.0%
@ 4.60-10.8%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.13+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Under
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.1%
@ 1.44+1.6%
Under
34.9%
@ 2.50-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.53
1xBet
2.47
CSKA Sofia II over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.3%
@ 3.02-1.8%
Under
71.7%
@ 1.30+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.15
1xBet
3.15
Unibet
2.75
Under
Unibet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
CSKA Sofia II over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.0%
@ 7.90-2.4%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.02+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.90
Marathonbet
7.90
Under
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
CSKA Sofia II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, so a minus line means Chernomorets 1919 Burgas give that many goals of a start and CSKA Sofia II receive them. At -1, Chernomorets 1919 Burgas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas)Actual: CSKA Sofia II
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas -2
4.0%
@ 7.80-7.2%
Draw -2
9.6%
@ 5.75-5.6%
CSKA Sofia II +2
86.4%
@ 1.19+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
7.80
Draw
Marathonbet
5.75
Away
Marathonbet
1.19
Handicap -1 (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas)Actual: CSKA Sofia II
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.73
0.53
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.55
0.00
0.40
1.17
0.67
vs Weaker (19)
0.95
0.63
1.10
0.60
0.78
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.33
0.27
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.56
0.23
0.23
0.58
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.33
1.40
0.20
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.18
0.40
0.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (19)
1.37
0.42
1.90
0.30
0.78
0.56
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
91.0%
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
-
-
-
+10.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.0%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
86.4%
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
-
-
-
-
+12.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.8%
1.21
888Sport
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.19
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
71.7%
1.57
Pinnacle
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Unibet
1.49
-
+13.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
71.7%
1.30
Unibet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and CSKA Sofia II have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and CSKA Sofia II have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and CSKA Sofia II have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and CSKA Sofia II have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →