Defensive solidity will shape the early minutes, with both sides averaging roughly 0.8 goals conceded at home for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and 1.42 away for Montana. The model favours a home win, assigning a 36% chance to that outcome, a 34% chance for a draw, and a 31% chance of an away victory. The expected total goals is 2.0, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 15% probability. Under 3.5 goals is the model’s only selection, carrying an 85.9% chance of success. Chernomorets 1919 Burgas are coming off a win and have scored 0.8 goals per match at home, while Montana, after a defeat, have scored 1.17 goals per away game. These figures underline a tight, low-scoring encounter, with the home side slightly favoured.
Results analysis
The upset arrived as Montana snatched a 0-1 victory over Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, overturning the pre-match favourite, Home win, which had a 36% chance. The model’s call was wrong, and the final result was an away win. The match finished 0-1, a scoreline that matched the model’s most likely total of two goals, yet the actual total was one. The model’s single suggested pick, Under 3.5, hit with an 85.9% probability. Chernomorets, coming off a win, could not sustain their form, while Montana, after a defeat, seized the opportunity to secure the win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win✗ Miss
35.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Montana win✓ Hit
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.11
1.11
0.80
0.80
1.50
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.11
1.11
0.80
0.80
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Montana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.03
1.14
0.64
1.19
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.25
1.08
1.33
0.75
1.17
1.42
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.83
0.00
0.00
1.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
60.5%
Under 1.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
32.0%
Under 2.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.1%
Under 3.5
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.0%
No
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.0%
1-1
14.9%
1-0
12.9%
0-1 ✓
11.6%
2-0
7.4%
2-1
7.0%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
6.1%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas goals ↓
Montana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
12%
6.1%
1.9%
0.5%
1
13%
15%
6.4%
2.0%
0.5%
2
7.4%
7.0%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
3
2.6%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chernomorets 1919 Burgas goals (down), columns = Montana goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Spartak Varna
2.12
Septemvri Sofia
1.91
Marek
1.79
Montana
1.68
Strumska Slava
1.50
Dobrudzha
1.47
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.47
Yantra 2019
1.38
Dunav Ruse
1.35
Spartak Pleven
1.32
Litex
1.32
Ludogorets II
1.29
Belasitsa
1.26
Sportist Svoge
1.18
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.12
Chernomorets Balchik
1.06
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.88
Bdin
0.65
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas is 0.56 points worse than Montana in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Spartak Varna
1.76
Septemvri Sofia
1.35
Montana
1.35
Dobrudzha
1.26
Yantra 2019
1.15
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.15
Ludogorets II
1.15
Belasitsa
1.09
Marek
1.06
Chernomorets Balchik
1.06
Sportist Svoge
1.06
Strumska Slava
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.97
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.91
Dunav Ruse
0.88
Litex
0.88
Spartak Pleven
0.85
Bdin
0.56
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas is 0.38 goals worse than Montana in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Marek
0.76
Septemvri Sofia
0.76
Spartak Varna
0.82
Strumska Slava
0.82
Montana
0.91
Spartak Pleven
0.94
Belasitsa
0.97
Dobrudzha
1.00
Dunav Ruse
1.06
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.06
Litex
1.06
Yantra 2019
1.09
Ludogorets II
1.15
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.21
Sportist Svoge
1.32
Chernomorets Balchik
1.44
Bdin
1.47
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.65
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas is 0.29 goals worse than Montana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 0.91).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.60
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.60
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
56% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Montana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.58
0.50
0.50
0.42
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.44
0.44
0.20
0.20
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.44
0.20
0.20
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
56% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Montana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.71
0.21
0.69
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.50
0.83
0.25
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Montana · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Boris Dimitrov18%
Philip Ejike15%
Jorginho Soares8%
Ivan Kokonov6%
Ivaylo Markov0%
Vladislav Tsekov0%
Dimitar Burov0%
Anton Tungarov0%
Aleksandar Todorov0%
David Malembana0%
Angelos Tsingaras0%
Vajebah Sakor0%
Tomás Azevedo0%
Márcio Rosa0%
David Carmona0%
Albin Linnér0%
Vasil Simeonov0%
Nikola Borisov0%
Joel Berhane0%
Kostadin Iliev0%
Martin Mihaylov0%
Umaro Baldé0%
Ilias Iliadis0%
Viktor Dobrev0%
Christopher Acheampong0%
Petar Andreev0%
Solomon James0%
Ibrahim Beji Muhammad0%
Petar Atanasov0%
Kaloyan Strinski0%
Vitinho0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joel Berhane50%
Kaloyan Strinski40%
Christopher Acheampong36%
Vitinho25%
Kostadin Iliev23%
Martin Mihaylov22%
Tomás Azevedo21%
David Carmona17%
Petar Atanasov17%
Márcio Rosa15%
Solomon James14%
Boris Dimitrov14%
Vladislav Tsekov12%
Nikola Borisov12%
Ivaylo Markov10%
Philip Ejike10%
Ilias Iliadis9%
Anton Tungarov9%
Vajebah Sakor8%
Vasil Simeonov8%
Angelos Tsingaras8%
Dimitar Burov6%
Ivan Kokonov0%
Aleksandar Todorov0%
David Malembana0%
Albin Linnér0%
Umaro Baldé0%
Viktor Dobrev0%
Jorginho Soares0%
Petar Andreev0%
Ibrahim Beji Muhammad0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Malembana20%
Solomon James14%
Martin Mihaylov11%
Boris Dimitrov5%
Anton Tungarov4%
Ivaylo Markov0%
Vladislav Tsekov0%
Ivan Kokonov0%
Dimitar Burov0%
Aleksandar Todorov0%
Angelos Tsingaras0%
Vajebah Sakor0%
Tomás Azevedo0%
Márcio Rosa0%
David Carmona0%
Albin Linnér0%
Vasil Simeonov0%
Nikola Borisov0%
Joel Berhane0%
Kostadin Iliev0%
Umaro Baldé0%
Ilias Iliadis0%
Viktor Dobrev0%
Jorginho Soares0%
Christopher Acheampong0%
Petar Andreev0%
Philip Ejike0%
Ibrahim Beji Muhammad0%
Petar Atanasov0%
Kaloyan Strinski0%
Vitinho0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
David Malembana20%
Philip Ejike15%
Umaro Baldé11%
Kaloyan Strinski10%
Boris Dimitrov9%
Anton Tungarov4%
Ivaylo Markov0%
Vladislav Tsekov0%
Ivan Kokonov0%
Dimitar Burov0%
Aleksandar Todorov0%
Angelos Tsingaras0%
Vajebah Sakor0%
Tomás Azevedo0%
Márcio Rosa0%
David Carmona0%
Albin Linnér0%
Vasil Simeonov0%
Nikola Borisov0%
Joel Berhane0%
Kostadin Iliev0%
Martin Mihaylov0%
Ilias Iliadis0%
Viktor Dobrev0%
Jorginho Soares0%
Christopher Acheampong0%
Petar Andreev0%
Solomon James0%
Ibrahim Beji Muhammad0%
Petar Atanasov0%
Vitinho0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SV (22)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
C1B (19)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and Montana have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and Montana have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
DOB (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and Montana have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SV (11)
€3m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Y2 (10)
€2m
MAR (9)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and Montana have a similar defence value (both €1m).
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
C1B wins
0
Draws
0
MON wins
Head-to-head
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Montana · H/A from C1B
Bulgaria: Second League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →