Chernomorets 1919 Burgas are set to defend a solid home record, having scored an average of one goal per game while conceding only 0.46 against similarly ranked opponents. Their recent two-game winning streak and a 1-0 victory over Ludogorets II suggest a disciplined approach that will likely keep the score tight. Spartak Pleven, however, have struggled on the road, averaging one goal scored and one conceded, and their last outing ended 1-5 at CSKA Sofia II. The model predicts a home win with a 56% chance, a draw 29%, and an away win 15%. The most likely outcome is a 1-0 victory for the hosts, with a 17.3% probability. The expected total goals hover at 2.1, with the most probable total being two goals (28%). Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.6%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.2%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.4%), Under 5.5 (98.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (97.5%), and Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.6%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win
56.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven win
14.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.90
1.07
0.47
1.33
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
1.15
0.96
1.00
0.46
1.31
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Pleven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Pleven
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.50
1.50
1.14
0.94
1.81
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
2.23
1.20
1.60
0.88
2.62
vs Similar (17)
1.35
0.94
1.67
0.89
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
62.1%
Under 1.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
33.9%
Under 2.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.4%
Under 3.5
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
36.3%
No
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
17.3%
0-0
13.9%
2-0
13.3%
1-1
12.5%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
6.7%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
3.9%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas goals ↓
Spartak Pleven goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
6.7%
2.4%
0.5%
0.1%
1
17%
12%
3.5%
0.7%
0.1%
2
13%
8.2%
2.5%
0.5%
0.1%
3
6.4%
3.9%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
4
2.3%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chernomorets 1919 Burgas goals (down), columns = Spartak Pleven goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Beroe
1.57
Montana
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas is 0.57 points better than Spartak Pleven in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and Spartak Pleven are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas is 1.43 goals better than Spartak Pleven in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or Draw
85.3%
Avg Implied -
56%
29%
15%
covers Chernomorets 1919 Burgas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or Spartak Pleven
70.9%
Avg Implied -
56%
29%
15%
covers Chernomorets 1919 Burgas + Spartak Pleven
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Spartak Pleven
43.8%
Avg Implied -
56%
29%
15%
covers Draw + Spartak Pleven
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 0.5
Over
76.4%
Under
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 1.5
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 2.5
Over
17.7%
Under
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 3.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 0.5
Over
46.0%
Under
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 1.5
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 2.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 3.5
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, so a minus line means Chernomorets 1919 Burgas give that many goals of a start and Spartak Pleven receive them. At -1, Chernomorets 1919 Burgas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas)
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas -2
11.7%
Draw -2
17.7%
Spartak Pleven +2
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas)
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas -1
29.4%
Draw -1
26.8%
Spartak Pleven +1
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas)
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas +1
85.3%
Draw +1
10.8%
Spartak Pleven -1
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas)
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas +2
96.1%
Draw +2
3.2%
Spartak Pleven -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.80
0.27
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.42
0.77
0.23
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Pleven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Pleven
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.86
0.50
0.38
0.88
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
0.85
0.80
0.40
0.38
1.12
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.59
0.89
0.56
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.4%
Under 0.5
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.3%
Under 1.5
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.6%
Under 2.5
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.7%
Under
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 0.5 HT
Over
30.9%
Under
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.27
0.20
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.54
0.23
0.23
0.62
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Pleven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Pleven
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.64
0.64
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.38
0.40
1.20
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.35
0.78
0.33
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.3%
Under 0.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.6%
Under 1.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.5%
Under 2.5
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.3%
Under
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 0.5 2H
Over
39.5%
Under
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and Spartak Pleven have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and Spartak Pleven have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and Spartak Pleven have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and Spartak Pleven have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Fratria
Yantra 2019
Montana
Beroe
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Nesebar
Marek
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Rilski Sportist
Hebar 1918
Ludogorets II
Sportist Svoge
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad