Defensive solidity is the headline this week, with both sides averaging fewer than one goal conceded per match against similar opposition. The model favours a home win, assigning 55% to Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, 32% to a draw and 13% to Sportist Svoge. The expected total goals is 1.8, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 20.7% chance. Chernomorets’ home form shows 1.07 goals scored and 0.47 conceded, while Sportist’s away form is 1.0 scored and 0.57 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (100%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.8%), Under 5.5 (99.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (98.6%), Home +2 handicap (97.0%), Under 4.5 (96.6%) and Home under 3.5 goals (96.0%). Chernomorets are on a two-game winning run, having beaten Ludogorets II 1-0, while Sportist return from a 1-2 loss to Rilski Sportist. The match is expected to stay tight, with a low-scoring outcome likely.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win
54.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge win
13.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.90
1.07
0.47
1.33
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
1.15
0.96
1.00
0.46
1.31
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sportist Svoge
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.43
0.93
1.20
0.73
1.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
2.31
1.40
1.80
0.50
2.62
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.76
0.70
0.90
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.8%
Under 1.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.0%
Under 2.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
10.3%
Under 3.5
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
29.1%
No
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
20.7%
0-0
18.2%
2-0
13.8%
1-1
11.8%
0-1
7.4%
2-1
6.8%
3-0
5.9%
3-1
2.9%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas goals ↓
Sportist Svoge goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
7.4%
2.1%
0.3%
0.0%
1
21%
12%
2.6%
0.4%
0.1%
2
14%
6.8%
1.7%
0.3%
0.0%
3
5.9%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
4
1.9%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chernomorets 1919 Burgas goals (down), columns = Sportist Svoge goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Beroe
1.57
Montana
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas is 0.71 points better than Sportist Svoge in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas is 0.43 goals better than Sportist Svoge in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas is 0.29 goals better than Sportist Svoge in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or Draw
86.7%
Avg Implied -
55%
32%
13%
covers Chernomorets 1919 Burgas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or Sportist Svoge
68.2%
Avg Implied -
55%
32%
13%
covers Chernomorets 1919 Burgas + Sportist Svoge
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sportist Svoge
45.1%
Avg Implied -
55%
32%
13%
covers Draw + Sportist Svoge
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 0.5
Over
72.0%
Under
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 1.5
Over
36.3%
Under
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 2.5
Over
13.7%
Under
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 3.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5
Over
38.9%
Under
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 3.5
Over
0.2%
Under
99.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, so a minus line means Chernomorets 1919 Burgas give that many goals of a start and Sportist Svoge receive them. At -1, Chernomorets 1919 Burgas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas)
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas -2
9.6%
Draw -2
17.0%
Sportist Svoge +2
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas)
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas -1
26.6%
Draw -1
28.3%
Sportist Svoge +1
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas)
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas +1
86.7%
Draw +1
10.3%
Sportist Svoge -1
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas)
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas +2
97.0%
Draw +2
2.6%
Sportist Svoge -2
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.80
0.27
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.42
0.77
0.23
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sportist Svoge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.40
0.73
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
1.23
0.60
1.40
0.25
1.12
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.24
0.30
0.40
0.43
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.27
0.20
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.54
0.23
0.23
0.62
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sportist Svoge
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.53
0.47
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.08
0.80
0.40
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.53
0.40
0.50
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS No
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas's squad is €2m more valuable than Sportist Svoge's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and Sportist Svoge have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and Sportist Svoge have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and Sportist Svoge have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →