Chievo are tipped to win, with a 44% chance of a home victory, 29% for a draw and 27% for Spezia to take the points. The match is expected to see about 2.4 goals, with the most likely total being two, a 27% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14% probability. Chievo, playing at home against a stronger opponent, average 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Spezia, on the road against a weaker side, average 1.25 scored and 0.88 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 99.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 97.8%, Over 23.5 fouls at 94.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 93.5%, Over 25.5 fouls at 89.2%, Over 3.5 cards at 84.2% (miss), Under 11.5 corners at 80.2%, and Under 3.5 at 77.1% (miss).
Results analysis
The upset was immediate: Spezia snatched a 1-3 victory, ending Chievo’s two-game winning streak at home. The pre-match favourite was a home win with a 44% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 99.2%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 97.8%, Over 23.5 fouls hit at 94.8%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 93.5%, Over 25.5 fouls hit at 89.2%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 80.2%, while Over 3.5 cards missed at 84.2% and Under 3.5 missed at 77.1%. The match’s final score of 1-3 confirmed the away win, contradicting the model’s expectation.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chievo win✗ Miss
43.7%
Avg Implied 38.8% · @ 2.41
Edge
+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied 31.6% · @ 2.96
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spezia win✓ Hit
26.9%
Avg Implied 29.6% · @ 3.16
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
C
Chievo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.93
1.43
0.93
0.94
0.94
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.00
1.20
1.40
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (19)
1.32
0.89
1.56
0.67
1.10
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spezia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.13
1.60
0.93
1.20
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.38
1.23
1.67
0.50
1.14
1.86
vs Weaker (17)
1.41
1.06
1.56
1.22
1.25
0.88
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Chievo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.2%
Under 1.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.0%
@ 2.39+4.4%
Under 2.5
56.0%
@ 1.57-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.9%
Under 3.5
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.0%
No
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
10.9%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
8.5%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
4.8%
Chievo goals ↓
Spezia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.8%
4.8%
1.7%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.6%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.5%
8.9%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.9%
4.1%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chievo goals (down), columns = Spezia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benevento
2.26
Crotone
1.79
Spezia
1.61
Pordenone
1.53
Cittadella
1.53
Chievo
1.47
Frosinone
1.42
Pisa
1.42
Empoli
1.42
Salernitana
1.37
Venezia
1.32
Cremonese
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.26
Ascoli
1.21
Trapani
1.21
Cosenza
1.21
Pescara
1.18
Perugia
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.08
Livorno
0.55
Chievo is 0.13 points worse than Spezia in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benevento
1.76
Crotone
1.66
Spezia
1.42
Salernitana
1.39
Ascoli
1.32
Cosenza
1.32
Pisa
1.29
Cittadella
1.29
Pescara
1.26
Chievo
1.26
Pordenone
1.26
Trapani
1.26
Juve Stabia
1.24
Empoli
1.24
Virtus Entella
1.21
Cremonese
1.11
Frosinone
1.08
Perugia
1.00
Venezia
0.97
Livorno
0.79
Chievo is 0.16 goals worse than Spezia in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Benevento
0.71
Frosinone
1.00
Chievo
1.00
Spezia
1.05
Crotone
1.05
Venezia
1.05
Cremonese
1.13
Pisa
1.18
Pordenone
1.21
Empoli
1.26
Perugia
1.29
Cosenza
1.29
Cittadella
1.29
Salernitana
1.32
Virtus Entella
1.32
Pescara
1.45
Ascoli
1.53
Trapani
1.58
Juve Stabia
1.66
Livorno
1.76
Chievo is 0.05 goals better than Spezia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.05).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
C
Chievo
For 3.7 · Against 4.1 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 3.2 · Total 6.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.3 · Against 18.7 · Total 37.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spezia
For 5.0 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 3.7 · Total 6.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 15.9 · Total 30.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
C
Chievo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.2
10.1
5.5
5.4
5.5
31.8
31.6
32.0
vs Stronger (30)
9.9
8.6
11.0
5.2
5.2
5.1
31.4
29.9
32.8
vs Similar (20)
8.2
7.7
8.6
5.9
5.7
6.1
32.5
34.1
30.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
38%
58%
74%
75%
73%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
52%
62%
42%
26%
25%
27%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spezia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.2
10.7
5.4
4.8
6.1
29.5
28.4
30.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
10.5
10.4
10.7
5.7
5.1
6.4
28.4
26.4
30.7
vs Weaker (29)
9.4
8.3
10.6
5.2
4.7
5.9
30.3
29.9
30.8
% over line
50%
46%
54%
82%
73%
92%
98%
96%
100%
% under line
50%
54%
46%
18%
27%
8%
2%
4%
0%
This opponent (Chievo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Juve Stabia
11.0
Cittadella
10.8
Crotone
10.6
Pordenone
10.4
Perugia
10.4
Virtus Entella
10.0
Spezia
9.9
Frosinone
9.8
Cremonese
9.8
Livorno
9.8
Empoli
9.6
Venezia
9.6
Pescara
9.5
Cosenza
9.3
Benevento
9.2
Trapani
9.2
Pisa
9.2
Chievo
9.2
Salernitana
9.0
Ascoli
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Pisa
6.7
Juve Stabia
6.4
Ascoli
5.9
Livorno
5.8
Salernitana
5.7
Pordenone
5.5
Benevento
5.5
Chievo
5.5
Spezia
5.4
Cosenza
5.4
Cittadella
5.4
Virtus Entella
5.4
Trapani
5.3
Venezia
5.3
Crotone
5.2
Frosinone
5.1
Perugia
5.0
Pescara
4.8
Cremonese
4.7
Empoli
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Salernitana
34.1
Pisa
33.4
Livorno
33.2
Juve Stabia
32.8
Perugia
32.1
Cittadella
32.1
Virtus Entella
31.9
Chievo
31.8
Crotone
31.7
Frosinone
31.6
Cosenza
31.5
Benevento
31.3
Pordenone
31.2
Ascoli
31.1
Venezia
31.1
Trapani
29.8
Pescara
29.8
Spezia
29.5
Cremonese
28.6
Empoli
26.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
41.4%
Under 9.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
84.2%
Under 3.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
97.8%
Under 21.5
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
C
Chievo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.64
0.50
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.45
0.60
0.60
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.68
0.67
0.44
0.60
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spezia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.23
0.46
0.33
0.17
0.14
0.71
vs Weaker (17)
0.59
0.71
0.78
0.89
0.38
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Chievo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chievo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chievo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chievo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
C
Chievo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.33
0.79
0.43
0.44
0.25
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.55
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.21
0.89
0.22
0.50
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spezia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
1.00
0.33
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.15
0.77
1.33
0.33
1.00
1.14
vs Weaker (17)
0.82
0.35
0.78
0.33
0.88
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Chievo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chievo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chievo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chievo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Spezia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gabriele Artistico36%
Gianluca Lapadula32%
Mattia Valoti25%
Giuseppe Aurelio20%
Giuseppe Di Serio11%
Vanja Vlahović9%
Giovanni Bonfanti8%
Salvatore Esposito8%
Filippo Bandinelli6%
Pietro Beruatto6%
Rachid Kouda6%
Edoardo Soleri5%
Leonardo Sernicola5%
Luca Vignali3%
Ádám Nagy0%
Antonio Candela0%
Francesco Cassata0%
Andrea Cistana0%
Aleš Matějů0%
Petko Hristov0%
Boris Radunović0%
Przemysław Wiśniewski0%
Daniele Verde0%
Alessandro Bellemo0%
Mouhamadou Sarr0%
Marco Ruggero0%
Emanuele Adamo0%
Laurs Skjellerup0%
Alessandro Romano0%
Pietro Candelari0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Christian Comotto0%
Fellipe Jack0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Francesco Cassata41%
Salvatore Esposito38%
Filippo Bandinelli38%
Fellipe Jack38%
Alessandro Bellemo27%
Giovanni Bonfanti25%
Aleš Matějů23%
Marco Ruggero22%
Alessandro Romano21%
Mattia Valoti19%
Emanuele Adamo19%
Petko Hristov17%
Luca Vignali17%
Laurs Skjellerup17%
Ádám Nagy15%
Giuseppe Di Serio15%
Pietro Beruatto15%
Pietro Candelari14%
Rachid Kouda12%
Andrea Cistana11%
Leonardo Sernicola10%
Przemysław Wiśniewski10%
Christian Comotto10%
Gabriele Artistico9%
Giuseppe Aurelio6%
Antonio Candela5%
Gianluca Lapadula5%
Edoardo Soleri5%
Boris Radunović0%
Daniele Verde0%
Mouhamadou Sarr0%
Vanja Vlahović0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniele Verde17%
Giovanni Bonfanti17%
Salvatore Esposito15%
Mattia Valoti12%
Pietro Beruatto12%
Gianluca Lapadula11%
Leonardo Sernicola10%
Alessandro Bellemo9%
Vanja Vlahović9%
Giuseppe Aurelio9%
Ádám Nagy7%
Rachid Kouda6%
Antonio Candela5%
Alessandro Romano5%
Francesco Cassata5%
Giuseppe Di Serio4%
Luca Vignali3%
Aleš Matějů3%
Christian Comotto3%
Gabriele Artistico3%
Filippo Bandinelli0%
Andrea Cistana0%
Petko Hristov0%
Boris Radunović0%
Przemysław Wiśniewski0%
Edoardo Soleri0%
Mouhamadou Sarr0%
Marco Ruggero0%
Emanuele Adamo0%
Laurs Skjellerup0%
Pietro Candelari0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Fellipe Jack0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gabriele Artistico24%
Giovanni Bonfanti17%
Mattia Valoti12%
Gianluca Lapadula11%
Edoardo Soleri11%
Salvatore Esposito8%
Vanja Vlahović4%
Aleš Matějů3%
Giuseppe Aurelio3%
Ádám Nagy0%
Leonardo Sernicola0%
Filippo Bandinelli0%
Antonio Candela0%
Luca Vignali0%
Francesco Cassata0%
Andrea Cistana0%
Petko Hristov0%
Boris Radunović0%
Przemysław Wiśniewski0%
Daniele Verde0%
Alessandro Bellemo0%
Pietro Beruatto0%
Mouhamadou Sarr0%
Giuseppe Di Serio0%
Marco Ruggero0%
Emanuele Adamo0%
Laurs Skjellerup0%
Rachid Kouda0%
Alessandro Romano0%
Pietro Candelari0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Christian Comotto0%
Fellipe Jack0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Spezia
Benevento
Cittadella
Pisa
Frosinone
Empoli
Salernitana
Venezia
Cremonese
Virtus Entella
Cosenza
Ascoli
Pescara
Perugia
Juve Stabia