Chindia Targoviste are tipped to edge Metalul Buzău in a match that looks set to be a low-scoring affair, with the model favouring a home win. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modest tally, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.4% chance. Chindia’s home form shows they average 1.71 goals scored and only 0.57 conceded against similar opposition, while Metalul Buzău, on the road, averages 2.2 goals for and 1.2 against. The probability of a home win sits at 51%, a draw at 28%, and an away win at 21%. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 with a 77.5% probability, and Over 1.5 at 70.8%. The model’s selection for the match result is a home win, while the single most likely scoreline remains 1-1.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Chindia Targoviste, failed to deliver a win, leaving the game a 0-0 draw. The model had picked a home win with a 51% probability, but that call was wrong. The match ended in a stalemate, matching the model’s 28% draw probability. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 77.5% chance, while its Over 1.5 pick missed, at 70.8%. Chindia’s recent form, coming off a win, and Metalul’s after two defeats set the stage for a tight contest, but neither side could break the deadlock.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chindia Targoviste win✗ Miss
50.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău win✗ Miss
21.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Chindia Targoviste
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.97
1.71
0.57
1.25
1.31
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.50
0.89
1.71
0.57
1.29
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalul Buzău) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metalul Buzău
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.85
1.15
1.50
0.83
2.14
1.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.82
1.00
1.50
0.83
2.20
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
38% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Chindia Targoviste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.8%
Under 1.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.5%
Under 2.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.5%
Under 3.5
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
12.3%
2-0
10.3%
0-0 ✓
10.1%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
6.8%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.2%
Chindia Targoviste goals ↓
Metalul Buzău goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
6.8%
3.6%
1.1%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.5%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.2%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
5.2%
4.7%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.0%
1.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chindia Targoviste goals (down), columns = Metalul Buzău goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Csikszereda
1.94
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.93
Arges Pitesti
1.93
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.81
FC Voluntari
1.67
Metaloglobus
1.63
Slatina
1.63
CSM Reşiţa
1.60
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.46
U Craiova 1948
1.38
Metalul Buzău
1.38
Concordia
1.33
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.31
Chindia Targoviste
1.29
Bihor Oradea
1.22
CS Afumati
1.19
Unirea Ungheni
1.19
Dumbrăviţa
0.89
Focşani
0.85
CS Mioveni
0.65
Muscelul Câmpulung Elite
0.54
ACS Sirineasa
0.11
Chindia Targoviste is 0.10 points worse than Metalul Buzău in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Slatina
1.74
Concordia
1.67
Csikszereda
1.58
Metaloglobus
1.47
CSM Reşiţa
1.43
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.42
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.40
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.38
Chindia Targoviste
1.32
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.31
Arges Pitesti
1.30
FC Voluntari
1.27
Bihor Oradea
1.22
Metalul Buzău
1.19
U Craiova 1948
1.15
CS Afumati
1.00
Unirea Ungheni
0.88
Dumbrăviţa
0.86
Focşani
0.65
Muscelul Câmpulung Elite
0.62
CS Mioveni
0.47
ACS Sirineasa
0.33
Chindia Targoviste is 0.13 goals better than Metalul Buzău in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arges Pitesti
0.53
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.73
FC Voluntari
0.77
Corvinul Hunedoara
0.85
Slatina
0.89
Csikszereda
1.03
CSM Reşiţa
1.10
Metalul Buzău
1.15
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.15
Focşani
1.15
Chindia Targoviste
1.18
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.19
Metaloglobus
1.20
U Craiova 1948
1.23
Dumbrăviţa
1.25
Unirea Ungheni
1.27
Bihor Oradea
1.33
CS Afumati
1.46
Concordia
1.48
CS Mioveni
2.29
Muscelul Câmpulung Elite
2.31
ACS Sirineasa
3.00
Chindia Targoviste is 0.02 goals worse than Metalul Buzău in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chindia Targoviste
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.79
0.29
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.46
0.79
0.29
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalul Buzău) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metalul Buzău
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.54
0.38
0.33
0.17
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.27
0.33
0.17
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
69% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Chindia Targoviste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chindia Targoviste
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.93
0.29
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
-
-
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.43
0.93
0.29
0.64
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalul Buzău) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metalul Buzău
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.31
0.77
1.17
0.67
1.43
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.27
0.73
1.17
0.67
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
-
-
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
54% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Chindia Targoviste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalul Buzău over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (26)
€13m
CH (24)
€7m
CSI (25)
€6m
FV (24)
€6m
CON (26)
€5m
BO (23)
€4m
CT (21)
€3m
CSB (24)
€3m
SLA (23)
€3m
CR (20)
€3m
MB (19)
€3m
VŞ (19)
€2m
MET (15)
€1m
DUM (15)
€1m
CA (14)
€1m
Chindia Targoviste and Metalul Buzău have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (11)
€4m
CH (12)
€3m
CSI (12)
€2m
FV (11)
€2m
CON (11)
€2m
CT (8)
€2m
SLA (10)
€1m
MB (6)
€1m
CSB (8)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
CR (9)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
MET (5)
€1m
CA (6)
€1m
DUM (3)
€0m
Chindia Targoviste and Metalul Buzău have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (6)
€3m
CON (6)
€1m
CSI (4)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
CSB (6)
€1m
CH (2)
€1m
FV (2)
€1m
DUM (4)
€0m
CR (4)
€0m
MB (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
CT (2)
€0m
MET (3)
€0m
VŞ (3)
€0m
SLA (4)
€0m
Chindia Targoviste and Metalul Buzău have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (9)
€6m
CH (10)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
CSI (9)
€3m
BO (11)
€2m
SLA (9)
€1m
CR (7)
€1m
CSB (10)
€1m
CT (11)
€1m
MB (9)
€1m
CON (9)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
DUM (8)
€1m
MET (7)
€1m
CA (4)
€0m
Chindia Targoviste and Metalul Buzău have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Romania: Liga II 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →