The match between Chindia Targoviste and Slatina is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win. Home win chances sit at 33%, a draw at 26%, and the away side leads with 41%. The expected total goals hover around 3.1, yet the most probable total is two goals, a 23% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.1% probability. Chindia, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Slatina, on the road, averages 2.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selection list includes Over 1.5 with an 82% probability, marked as a hit. Both teams have been in good recent form: Chindia comes off a win, while Slatina remains unbeaten in their last five. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and every selection is named exactly as provided.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Slatina, failed to deliver an away win, as the match finished 1-1. The model’s pick of an away victory, with a 41% probability, proved incorrect. Chindia Targoviste, coming off a win, and Slatina, unbeaten in their last five, produced a draw that matched the model’s 26% draw probability. The model’s selection for Over 1.5 goals, at 82%, hit as the total of two goals was reached. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, with a 12.1% chance, also materialised. The final result was a 1-1 draw.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chindia Targoviste win✗ Miss
32.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Slatina win✗ Miss
41.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Chindia Targoviste
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.10
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.19
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.29
1.07
1.62
1.00
1.00
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Slatina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slatina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.93
1.40
0.60
2.40
1.27
vs Stronger (2)
3.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
6.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.79
0.96
1.43
0.64
2.14
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Chindia Targoviste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.0%
Under 1.5
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.9%
Under 2.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.5%
Under 3.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.2%
No
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.1%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
0-2
6.2%
0-0
5.8%
1-0
5.7%
Chindia Targoviste goals ↓
Slatina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
6.5%
6.2%
3.3%
1.4%
1
5.7%
12%
8.9%
4.8%
1.9%
2
4.9%
7.9%
6.4%
3.4%
1.4%
3
2.3%
3.8%
3.0%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.8%
1.3%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chindia Targoviste goals (down), columns = Slatina goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Csikszereda
1.94
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.93
Arges Pitesti
1.93
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.81
FC Voluntari
1.67
Metaloglobus
1.63
Slatina
1.63
CSM Reşiţa
1.60
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.46
U Craiova 1948
1.38
Metalul Buzău
1.38
Concordia
1.33
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.31
Chindia Targoviste
1.29
Bihor Oradea
1.22
CS Afumati
1.19
Unirea Ungheni
1.19
Dumbrăviţa
0.89
Focşani
0.85
CS Mioveni
0.65
Muscelul Câmpulung Elite
0.54
ACS Sirineasa
0.11
Chindia Targoviste is 0.34 points worse than Slatina in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.63).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Slatina
1.74
Concordia
1.67
Csikszereda
1.58
Metaloglobus
1.47
CSM Reşiţa
1.43
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.42
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.40
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.38
Chindia Targoviste
1.32
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.31
Arges Pitesti
1.30
FC Voluntari
1.27
Bihor Oradea
1.22
Metalul Buzău
1.19
U Craiova 1948
1.15
CS Afumati
1.00
Unirea Ungheni
0.88
Dumbrăviţa
0.86
Focşani
0.65
Muscelul Câmpulung Elite
0.62
CS Mioveni
0.47
ACS Sirineasa
0.33
Chindia Targoviste is 0.42 goals worse than Slatina in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arges Pitesti
0.53
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.73
FC Voluntari
0.77
Corvinul Hunedoara
0.85
Slatina
0.89
Csikszereda
1.03
CSM Reşiţa
1.10
Metalul Buzău
1.15
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.15
Focşani
1.15
Chindia Targoviste
1.18
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.19
Metaloglobus
1.20
U Craiova 1948
1.23
Dumbrăviţa
1.25
Unirea Ungheni
1.27
Bihor Oradea
1.33
CS Afumati
1.46
Concordia
1.48
CS Mioveni
2.29
Muscelul Câmpulung Elite
2.31
ACS Sirineasa
3.00
Chindia Targoviste is 0.29 goals worse than Slatina in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 0.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chindia Targoviste
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.64
0.50
0.31
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.50
0.57
0.69
0.46
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Slatina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slatina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.47
0.80
0.20
1.07
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.93
0.46
0.86
0.21
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Chindia Targoviste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slatina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slatina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slatina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chindia Targoviste
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.86
0.50
0.69
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.50
0.92
0.54
0.67
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Slatina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slatina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.47
0.60
0.40
1.33
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
2.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.86
0.50
0.57
0.43
1.14
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Chindia Targoviste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chindia Targoviste over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slatina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slatina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slatina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (26)
€13m
CH (24)
€7m
CSI (25)
€6m
FV (24)
€6m
CON (26)
€5m
BO (23)
€4m
CT (21)
€3m
CSB (24)
€3m
SLA (23)
€3m
CR (20)
€3m
MB (19)
€3m
VŞ (19)
€2m
MET (15)
€1m
DUM (15)
€1m
CA (14)
€1m
Chindia Targoviste and Slatina have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (11)
€4m
CH (12)
€3m
CSI (12)
€2m
FV (11)
€2m
CON (11)
€2m
CT (8)
€2m
SLA (10)
€1m
MB (6)
€1m
CSB (8)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
CR (9)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
MET (5)
€1m
CA (6)
€1m
DUM (3)
€0m
Chindia Targoviste and Slatina have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (6)
€3m
CON (6)
€1m
CSI (4)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
CSB (6)
€1m
CH (2)
€1m
FV (2)
€1m
DUM (4)
€0m
CR (4)
€0m
MB (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
CT (2)
€0m
MET (3)
€0m
VŞ (3)
€0m
SLA (4)
€0m
Chindia Targoviste and Slatina have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (9)
€6m
CH (10)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
CSI (9)
€3m
BO (11)
€2m
SLA (9)
€1m
CR (7)
€1m
CSB (10)
€1m
CT (11)
€1m
MB (9)
€1m
CON (9)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
DUM (8)
€1m
MET (7)
€1m
CA (4)
€0m
Chindia Targoviste and Slatina have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Romania: Liga II 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →