The contest between Chrobry Głogów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total of goals sits at 2.6, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.7% chance. Chrobry Głogów, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.73 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, on the road, averages 0.92 scored and 1.58 conceded. The probabilities for the match result are 41% for a home win, 29% for a draw and 30% for an away win. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Under 5.5 (95.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.4%), Under 4.5 (87.8%) and Home +2 handicap (87.1%). The model’s edge on these picks is noted where provided.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chrobry Głogów win
41.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Chrobry Głogów
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.03
1.36
1.14
1.38
0.94
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.67
0.50
1.50
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (22)
1.64
0.86
1.70
1.10
1.58
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.53
1.36
1.50
1.25
1.56
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.50
vs Similar (27)
1.26
1.56
1.38
1.54
1.14
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Chrobry Głogów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.5%
Under 1.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.1%
Under 2.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.4%
Under 3.5
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.8%
No
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
8.8%
0-0
8.7%
0-1
7.5%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.4%
2-2
5.2%
Chrobry Głogów goals ↓
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
7.5%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
1
9.3%
14%
7.4%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.5%
8.8%
5.2%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.5%
4.2%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.3%
1.5%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chrobry Głogów goals (down), columns = Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Chrobry Głogów is 0.33 points worse than Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Chrobry Głogów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are level in goals scored per game (both 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Chrobry Głogów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are level in goals conceded per game (both 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Chrobry Głogów or Draw
69.8%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
30%
covers Chrobry Głogów + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
71.3%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
30%
covers Chrobry Głogów + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
58.8%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
30%
covers Draw + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 0.5
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 1.5
Over
41.4%
Under
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 2.5
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 0.5
Over
69.3%
Under
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 1.5
Over
33.1%
Under
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 2.5
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Chrobry Głogów, so a minus line means Chrobry Głogów give that many goals of a start and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki receive them. At -1, Chrobry Głogów must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Chrobry Głogów win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Chrobry Głogów)
Chrobry Głogów -2
7.6%
Draw -2
12.6%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki +2
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Chrobry Głogów)
Chrobry Głogów -1
20.2%
Draw -1
21.0%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki +1
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Chrobry Głogów)
Chrobry Głogów +1
69.8%
Draw +1
17.3%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki -1
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Chrobry Głogów)
Chrobry Głogów +2
87.1%
Draw +2
8.8%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki -2
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chrobry Głogów
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.79
0.71
0.62
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.41
0.90
0.60
0.67
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.74
0.54
0.54
0.71
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Chrobry Głogów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chrobry Głogów
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.57
0.43
0.75
0.44
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.45
0.80
0.50
0.92
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.86
1.00
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.81
0.85
1.00
0.43
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Chrobry Głogów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Chrobry Głogów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Chrobry Głogów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Chrobry Głogów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Chrobry Głogów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →