This opponent (Alessandria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Alessandria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.43
0.94
1.19
0.86
1.71
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.42
0.88
1.12
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.06
1.44
1.00
1.25
1.10
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.4%
Under 1.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.9%
@ 2.22-0.4%
Under 2.5
58.1%
@ 1.63+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.2%
Under 3.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.1%
No
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
12.9%
0-0
10.7%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.0%
1-2 ✓
5.3%
3-0
5.3%
Cittadella goals ↓
Alessandria goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.0%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
5.3%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.1%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
5.3%
4.5%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.0%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cittadella goals (down), columns = Alessandria goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lecce
1.87
Cremonese
1.82
Pisa
1.76
Monza
1.76
Brescia
1.74
Ascoli
1.71
Benevento
1.66
Frosinone
1.53
Perugia
1.53
Ternana
1.42
Cittadella
1.37
Parma
1.29
Reggina
1.26
Como
1.24
Spal
1.11
Cosenza
0.92
Alessandria
0.89
Vicenza Virtus
0.89
Crotone
0.68
Pordenone
0.47
Cittadella is 0.47 points better than Alessandria in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benevento
1.63
Monza
1.58
Lecce
1.55
Frosinone
1.53
Ternana
1.53
Cremonese
1.50
Brescia
1.45
Ascoli
1.37
Como
1.29
Pisa
1.26
Parma
1.26
Spal
1.21
Crotone
1.08
Perugia
1.05
Cittadella
1.00
Vicenza Virtus
1.00
Alessandria
0.97
Cosenza
0.95
Reggina
0.82
Pordenone
0.76
Cittadella is 0.03 goals better than Alessandria in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lecce
0.82
Perugia
0.84
Pisa
0.92
Brescia
0.92
Cittadella
0.95
Monza
1.00
Cremonese
1.03
Benevento
1.03
Ascoli
1.11
Parma
1.13
Frosinone
1.18
Reggina
1.29
Spal
1.42
Como
1.42
Alessandria
1.55
Cosenza
1.55
Vicenza Virtus
1.55
Ternana
1.61
Crotone
1.61
Pordenone
1.87
Cittadella is 0.61 goals better than Alessandria in terms of goals conceded per game (0.95 vs 1.55).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cittadella
For 5.2 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.9 · Against 4.0 · Total 7.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 19.8 · Against 17.9 · Total 37.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
A
Alessandria
For 5.5 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 3.3 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 17.8 · Total 30.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cittadella
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.1
10.4
6.2
6.2
6.2
33.9
34.8
33.0
vs Stronger (20)
10.2
8.7
11.5
7.3
7.4
7.3
34.0
34.4
33.6
vs Similar (30)
9.4
9.4
9.5
5.4
5.4
5.4
33.9
35.0
32.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
60%
52%
86%
84%
88%
98%
96%
100%
% under line
44%
40%
48%
14%
16%
12%
2%
4%
0%
This opponent (Alessandria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Alessandria
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (34)
10.7
12.2
9.1
5.4
5.1
5.6
32.3
31.7
32.8
vs Stronger (15)
9.7
11.6
7.6
5.5
5.2
5.7
33.7
35.0
32.3
vs Similar (19)
11.4
12.8
10.2
5.3
5.0
5.5
31.1
28.8
33.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
76%
47%
82%
82%
82%
97%
94%
100%
% under line
38%
24%
53%
18%
18%
18%
3%
6%
0%
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Brescia
11.5
Pisa
10.9
Alessandria
10.7
Benevento
10.6
Reggina
10.5
Crotone
10.5
Frosinone
10.3
Como
10.3
Spal
10.2
Monza
10.1
Vicenza Virtus
10.1
Ascoli
10.0
Ternana
9.9
Parma
9.9
Pordenone
9.8
Cittadella
9.8
Cremonese
9.6
Perugia
9.5
Lecce
9.4
Cosenza
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cittadella
6.2
Frosinone
5.8
Perugia
5.8
Pordenone
5.8
Ascoli
5.8
Reggina
5.7
Pisa
5.7
Vicenza Virtus
5.5
Como
5.5
Parma
5.4
Alessandria
5.4
Cremonese
5.3
Lecce
5.3
Monza
5.2
Cosenza
5.2
Spal
5.2
Crotone
5.1
Ternana
4.8
Benevento
4.6
Brescia
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cittadella
33.9
Reggina
33.9
Pisa
33.1
Perugia
32.8
Pordenone
32.3
Alessandria
32.3
Monza
32.2
Ascoli
31.8
Frosinone
31.7
Spal
31.4
Como
30.3
Vicenza Virtus
30.3
Cremonese
29.8
Ternana
29.8
Parma
29.5
Lecce
29.4
Benevento
29.0
Crotone
28.7
Cosenza
27.4
Brescia
26.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.1%
Under 9.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
85.3%
Under 3.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
98.3%
Under 21.5
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cittadella
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.57
0.43
0.69
0.38
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
0.46
0.86
0.57
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.35
0.29
0.29
0.70
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Alessandria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Alessandria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.38
0.75
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
0.67
0.25
0.62
0.00
0.75
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.78
0.50
0.88
0.80
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alessandria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alessandria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alessandria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cittadella
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.57
0.43
0.57
0.31
0.56
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.69
0.57
0.86
0.33
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.29
0.47
0.29
0.29
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Alessandria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Alessandria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.70
0.56
0.44
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.75
0.62
0.50
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.67
0.50
0.38
0.30
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alessandria over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alessandria over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alessandria over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cittadella · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luca Pandolfi24%
Orji Okwonkwo19%
Alessio Vita12%
Simone Rabbi11%
Claudio Cassano10%
Simone Tronchin9%
Riccardo Palmieri8%
Lorenzo Carissoni6%
Mario Ravasio5%
Federico Casolari4%
Jacopo Desogus4%
Edoardo Masciangelo3%
Francesco Amatucci3%
Luca Maniero0%
Simone Branca0%
Davide Diaw0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Stefano Negro0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Alessandro Salvi0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Andrea Tessiore0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Andrea Magrassi0%
Stefano Piccinini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco D'Alessio0%
Andrea Cecchetto0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefano Piccinini60%
Riccardo Palmieri38%
Federico Casolari35%
Simone Branca32%
Elio Capradossi31%
Matteo Angeli29%
Andrea Cecchetto25%
Alessandro Salvi24%
Simone Tronchin22%
Nicola Pavan21%
Francesco Amatucci21%
Simone Rabbi19%
Luca Pandolfi18%
Alessio Rizza17%
Alessio Vita15%
Stefano Negro14%
Mario Ravasio14%
Lorenzo Carissoni14%
Edoardo Masciangelo14%
Jacopo Desogus12%
Andrea Tessiore12%
Andrea Magrassi11%
Luca Maniero10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Francesco D'Alessio8%
Orji Okwonkwo6%
Elhan Kastrati3%
Davide Diaw0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrea Magrassi11%
Mario Ravasio10%
Simone Tronchin9%
Edoardo Masciangelo8%
Francesco D'Alessio8%
Orji Okwonkwo6%
Alessandro Salvi6%
Simone Rabbi6%
Jacopo Desogus4%
Andrea Tessiore4%
Alessio Vita3%
Lorenzo Carissoni3%
Luca Maniero0%
Simone Branca0%
Davide Diaw0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Stefano Negro0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Riccardo Palmieri0%
Luca Pandolfi0%
Stefano Piccinini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco Amatucci0%
Federico Casolari0%
Claudio Cassano0%
Andrea Cecchetto0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luca Pandolfi33%
Orji Okwonkwo19%
Mario Ravasio14%
Simone Rabbi8%
Riccardo Palmieri8%
Alessandro Salvi6%
Alessio Vita6%
Jacopo Desogus4%
Francesco Amatucci3%
Luca Maniero0%
Simone Branca0%
Davide Diaw0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Stefano Negro0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Edoardo Masciangelo0%
Andrea Tessiore0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Andrea Magrassi0%
Stefano Piccinini0%
Simone Tronchin0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco D'Alessio0%
Federico Casolari0%
Claudio Cassano0%
Andrea Cecchetto0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Cittadella
Lecce
Cremonese
Monza
Pisa
Brescia
Ascoli
Benevento
Frosinone
Perugia
Ternana
Parma
Reggina
Como
Spal
Cosenza
Vicenza Virtus