This opponent (Bari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bari
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.97
1.67
1.00
1.13
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.33
-
-
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (21)
1.48
0.95
1.80
1.00
1.18
0.91
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.83
1.40
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.4%
Under 1.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
33.0%
@ 2.35-7.0%
Under 2.5
67.0%
@ 1.57+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.7%
Under 3.5
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.8%
No
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.9%
0-0
14.6%
0-1
12.5%
1-0
11.5%
0-2
7.3%
1-2
7.1%
2-1
6.6%
2-0
6.3%
Cittadella goals ↓
Bari goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
13%
7.3%
2.6%
0.7%
1
12%
15%
7.1%
2.5%
0.7%
2
6.3%
6.6%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
3
2.0%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cittadella goals (down), columns = Bari goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Frosinone
2.11
Genoa
1.95
Cagliari
1.65
Bari
1.64
Sudtirol
1.56
Parma
1.55
Reggina
1.41
Palermo
1.29
Modena
1.26
Venezia
1.26
Ascoli
1.24
Pisa
1.24
Como
1.24
Cittadella
1.13
Ternana
1.13
Cosenza
1.10
Perugia
1.03
Brescia
1.02
Spal
1.00
Benevento
0.92
Cittadella is 0.51 points worse than Bari in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Frosinone
1.66
Bari
1.43
Genoa
1.39
Venezia
1.33
Cagliari
1.33
Pisa
1.26
Palermo
1.26
Reggina
1.26
Parma
1.25
Como
1.24
Modena
1.24
Spal
1.08
Perugia
1.05
Ascoli
1.05
Sudtirol
0.98
Ternana
0.97
Brescia
0.93
Cittadella
0.89
Benevento
0.87
Cosenza
0.80
Cittadella is 0.53 goals worse than Bari in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Frosinone
0.68
Genoa
0.74
Sudtirol
0.85
Cagliari
0.88
Bari
0.95
Parma
1.05
Pisa
1.11
Reggina
1.18
Cittadella
1.18
Ascoli
1.24
Como
1.26
Benevento
1.29
Palermo
1.29
Venezia
1.33
Spal
1.34
Cosenza
1.35
Perugia
1.37
Ternana
1.37
Modena
1.39
Brescia
1.48
Cittadella is 0.23 goals worse than Bari in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 0.95).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cittadella
For 4.6 · Against 3.7 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.8 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.0 · Against 14.4 · Total 32.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bari
For 3.4 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 14.2 · Total 28.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cittadella
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.1
9.1
4.6
4.8
4.5
33.3
33.9
32.8
vs Stronger (20)
8.7
8.4
9.0
5.2
5.5
5.0
35.4
34.9
36.0
vs Similar (30)
9.3
9.5
9.1
4.2
4.2
4.1
32.1
33.2
31.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
59%
33%
64%
67%
62%
94%
94%
94%
% under line
54%
41%
67%
36%
33%
38%
6%
6%
6%
This opponent (Bari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bari
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.6
10.1
3.0
3.1
3.0
28.9
29.3
28.5
vs Stronger (4)
11.5
10.0
13.0
3.2
6.0
2.3
28.0
28.0
28.0
vs Similar (36)
10.3
10.5
10.2
3.3
3.3
3.3
29.4
29.8
29.0
vs Weaker (10)
10.0
11.0
9.2
2.0
1.8
2.2
27.3
27.7
27.0
% over line
54%
59%
50%
40%
42%
38%
97%
100%
94%
% under line
46%
41%
50%
60%
58%
62%
3%
0%
6%
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Brescia
11.5
Pisa
11.0
Benevento
11.0
Venezia
10.5
Spal
10.5
Bari
10.5
Como
10.5
Frosinone
10.5
Reggina
10.4
Parma
10.3
Ascoli
10.0
Ternana
9.9
Cittadella
9.5
Perugia
9.5
Palermo
9.4
Cagliari
9.0
Genoa
8.9
Cosenza
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cittadella
6.3
Perugia
5.9
Pisa
5.8
Frosinone
5.7
Ascoli
5.7
Reggina
5.5
Parma
5.5
Venezia
5.4
Como
5.3
Cosenza
5.2
Spal
5.2
Ternana
4.8
Palermo
4.8
Brescia
4.6
Benevento
4.6
Genoa
4.6
Cagliari
4.5
Bari
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Reggina
33.7
Cittadella
33.4
Perugia
33.0
Pisa
32.8
Ascoli
31.3
Palermo
31.3
Frosinone
31.2
Spal
30.8
Como
29.9
Parma
29.4
Ternana
29.1
Benevento
28.6
Bari
28.3
Genoa
27.9
Cagliari
27.8
Cosenza
27.5
Venezia
27.5
Brescia
26.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.0%
Under 9.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
82.8%
Under 3.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.0%
Under 21.5
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cittadella
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.37
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
0.38
1.00
0.40
0.62
0.38
vs Similar (17)
0.12
0.35
0.10
0.40
0.14
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Bari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bari
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.87
0.40
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
-
-
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.43
0.80
0.50
0.36
0.36
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.17
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cittadella
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.53
0.53
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
0.77
1.00
0.80
0.38
0.75
vs Similar (17)
0.29
0.41
0.30
0.40
0.29
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Bari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bari
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.80
0.60
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
-
-
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.52
1.00
0.50
0.82
0.55
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.67
0.40
0.80
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cittadella
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mirko Antonucci27%
Giovanni Crociata25%
Enrico Baldini17%
Giacomo Beretta17%
Tommaso Maistrello16%
Raúl Asencio12%
Giuseppe Ambrosino7%
Giuseppe Carriero6%
Valerio Mastrantonio4%
Andrea Magrassi4%
Alessio Vita3%
Carlos Embalo0%
Domenico Frare0%
Simone Branca0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Alessandro Mattioli0%
Federico Giraudo0%
Gian Filippo Felicioli0%
Davide Mazzocco0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Alessandro Salvi0%
Dario Del Fabro0%
Romano Perticone0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Daniele Donnarumma0%
Ignacio Lores Varela0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Santiago Visentin0%
Tommaso Cassandro0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Romano Perticone43%
Alessandro Salvi40%
Santiago Visentin38%
Giovanni Crociata38%
Simone Branca31%
Dario Del Fabro30%
Tommaso Cassandro28%
Mamadou Tounkara27%
Federico Giraudo25%
Daniele Donnarumma25%
Giuseppe Carriero24%
Valerio Mastrantonio24%
Andrea Danzi23%
Nicola Pavan23%
Domenico Frare18%
Ignacio Lores Varela18%
Giacomo Beretta17%
Gian Filippo Felicioli17%
Andrea Magrassi15%
Elhan Kastrati14%
Mirko Antonucci14%
Giuseppe Ambrosino13%
Raúl Asencio12%
Alessio Vita11%
Alessandro Mattioli7%
Carlos Embalo6%
Enrico Baldini0%
Davide Mazzocco0%
Tommaso Maistrello0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Giacomo Beretta17%
Giuseppe Ambrosino13%
Alessio Vita9%
Andrea Danzi8%
Alessandro Salvi7%
Mamadou Tounkara7%
Simone Branca6%
Giovanni Crociata6%
Federico Giraudo6%
Raúl Asencio6%
Valerio Mastrantonio4%
Andrea Magrassi4%
Ignacio Lores Varela4%
Mirko Antonucci3%
Carlos Embalo0%
Domenico Frare0%
Giuseppe Carriero0%
Alessandro Mattioli0%
Enrico Baldini0%
Gian Filippo Felicioli0%
Davide Mazzocco0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Tommaso Maistrello0%
Dario Del Fabro0%
Romano Perticone0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Daniele Donnarumma0%
Santiago Visentin0%
Tommaso Cassandro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Enrico Baldini33%
Giovanni Crociata19%
Raúl Asencio18%
Giacomo Beretta17%
Mirko Antonucci14%
Ignacio Lores Varela11%
Tommaso Maistrello11%
Mamadou Tounkara7%
Giuseppe Ambrosino7%
Giuseppe Carriero6%
Alessio Vita6%
Carlos Embalo6%
Valerio Mastrantonio4%
Nicola Pavan3%
Domenico Frare0%
Simone Branca0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Alessandro Mattioli0%
Federico Giraudo0%
Gian Filippo Felicioli0%
Davide Mazzocco0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Alessandro Salvi0%
Dario Del Fabro0%
Romano Perticone0%
Daniele Donnarumma0%
Andrea Magrassi0%
Santiago Visentin0%
Tommaso Cassandro0%
Bari
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Walid Cheddira43%
Mirco Antenucci29%
Sebastiano Esposito27%
Michael Folorunsho27%
Aurélien Scheidler15%
Eddie Salcedo13%
Leonardo Benedetti11%
Gregorio Morachioli8%
Valerio Di Cesare8%
Rubén Botta7%
Nicola Bellomo7%
Giacomo Ricci5%
Mattia Maita3%
Gianmarco Cangiano0%
Alessandro Mallamo0%
Elia Caprile0%
Francesco Vicari0%
Ahmad Benali0%
Salvatore Molina0%
Raffaele Maiello0%
Andrea D'Errico0%
Antonio Mazzotta0%
Emanuele Terranova0%
Cristian Galano0%
Raffaele Pucino0%
Damir Ceter0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Žan Žužek0%
Mehdi Dorval0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mattia Maita42%
Valerio Di Cesare35%
Andrea D'Errico30%
Michael Folorunsho30%
Raffaele Maiello22%
Giacomo Ricci18%
Antonio Mazzotta17%
Gianmarco Cangiano17%
Rubén Botta15%
Alessandro Mallamo15%
Nicola Bellomo15%
Francesco Vicari14%
Sebastiano Esposito13%
Raffaele Pucino12%
Leonardo Benedetti11%
Aurélien Scheidler10%
Emanuele Terranova10%
Mirco Antenucci9%
Walid Cheddira9%
Ahmad Benali8%
Damir Ceter7%
Elia Caprile5%
Mehdi Dorval5%
Eddie Salcedo0%
Gregorio Morachioli0%
Salvatore Molina0%
Cristian Galano0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Žan Žužek0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gregorio Morachioli17%
Nicola Bellomo15%
Walid Cheddira14%
Sebastiano Esposito13%
Salvatore Molina12%
Rubén Botta11%
Aurélien Scheidler10%
Andrea D'Errico10%
Giacomo Ricci9%
Raffaele Pucino9%
Damir Ceter7%
Eddie Salcedo7%
Michael Folorunsho7%
Mirco Antenucci6%
Leonardo Benedetti6%
Mattia Maita6%
Mehdi Dorval5%
Raffaele Maiello3%
Gianmarco Cangiano0%
Alessandro Mallamo0%
Elia Caprile0%
Francesco Vicari0%
Ahmad Benali0%
Antonio Mazzotta0%
Emanuele Terranova0%
Cristian Galano0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Valerio Di Cesare0%
Žan Žužek0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Walid Cheddira46%
Michael Folorunsho27%
Leonardo Benedetti9%
Rubén Botta7%
Damir Ceter7%
Sebastiano Esposito7%
Eddie Salcedo7%
Mirco Antenucci6%
Valerio Di Cesare5%
Aurélien Scheidler5%
Francesco Vicari3%
Gianmarco Cangiano0%
Alessandro Mallamo0%
Elia Caprile0%
Gregorio Morachioli0%
Ahmad Benali0%
Salvatore Molina0%
Raffaele Maiello0%
Andrea D'Errico0%
Antonio Mazzotta0%
Emanuele Terranova0%
Cristian Galano0%
Raffaele Pucino0%
Giacomo Ricci0%
Mattia Maita0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Nicola Bellomo0%
Žan Žužek0%
Mehdi Dorval0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Frosinone
Genoa
Cagliari
Sudtirol
Parma
Reggina
Venezia
Palermo
Modena
Pisa
Como
Ascoli
Cosenza
Ternana
Brescia
Perugia
Spal
Benevento