This opponent (Bari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bari
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.47
1.07
1.07
0.93
1.87
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.79
1.47
0.78
1.33
0.80
1.60
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
1.43
1.75
0.50
1.33
2.67
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.2%
Under 1.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.0%
@ 2.42+5.3%
Under 2.5
56.0%
@ 1.53-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.9%
Under 3.5
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.9%
1-0
11.1%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.8%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
4.6%
Cittadella goals ↓
Bari goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10.0%
7.6%
4.5%
1.5%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.4%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.0%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
3
4.2%
4.2%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.5%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cittadella goals (down), columns = Bari goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Parma
2.00
Como
1.92
Venezia
1.90
Cremonese
1.71
Catanzaro
1.51
Sampdoria
1.46
Palermo
1.44
Brescia
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.24
Modena
1.24
Reggiana
1.24
Cittadella
1.21
Pisa
1.21
Spezia
1.16
Bari
1.12
Ternana
1.10
Ascoli
1.08
FeralpiSalo
0.87
Lecco
0.68
Cittadella is 0.09 points better than Bari in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
1.74
Parma
1.74
Palermo
1.59
Catanzaro
1.56
Como
1.53
Sampdoria
1.36
Pisa
1.34
Cremonese
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.21
Brescia
1.18
FeralpiSalo
1.16
Ternana
1.10
Modena
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Bari
1.05
Ascoli
1.00
Reggiana
1.00
Spezia
0.95
Lecco
0.92
Cittadella is 0.00 goals better than Bari in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cremonese
0.86
Parma
0.92
Como
1.05
Brescia
1.08
Cosenza
1.11
Ascoli
1.11
Venezia
1.12
Reggiana
1.18
Cittadella
1.24
Modena
1.24
Bari
1.25
Sudtirol
1.26
Spezia
1.29
Sampdoria
1.33
Ternana
1.35
Palermo
1.37
Catanzaro
1.41
Pisa
1.42
FeralpiSalo
1.71
Lecco
1.95
Cittadella is 0.01 goals better than Bari in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Catanzaro
58%
Pisa
56%
Cremonese
56%
Venezia
52%
Reggiana
52%
Como
51%
Spezia
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Parma
50%
Bari
50%
Palermo
50%
Modena
50%
Cosenza
49%
Brescia
48%
Sudtirol
48%
Cittadella
47%
Lecco
47%
FeralpiSalo
45%
Ascoli
45%
Ternana
44%
Cittadella is 3.3 percentage points worse than Bari in terms of average possession (47% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cittadella
For 5.4 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.5 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.4 · Against 13.5 · Total 28.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bari
For 5.5 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 12.3 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cittadella
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
7.8
10.0
3.6
3.5
3.7
31.0
31.7
30.3
vs Stronger (19)
10.0
9.0
11.1
3.7
3.0
5.0
29.5
29.5
29.6
vs Similar (29)
8.1
6.6
9.5
3.2
3.5
3.0
32.2
33.1
31.4
vs Weaker (2)
8.0
9.0
7.0
6.5
8.0
5.0
31.0
37.0
25.0
% over line
42%
33%
50%
56%
58%
54%
97%
100%
94%
% under line
58%
67%
50%
44%
42%
46%
3%
0%
6%
This opponent (Bari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bari
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.7
8.8
4.3
4.3
4.3
29.5
29.2
29.8
vs Stronger (5)
8.2
9.0
7.5
4.0
3.3
5.0
28.0
29.5
26.5
vs Similar (36)
10.4
11.0
9.8
4.0
4.1
3.8
29.4
29.1
29.8
vs Weaker (9)
8.4
10.5
6.2
5.8
5.8
5.8
30.6
29.5
31.8
% over line
44%
61%
28%
62%
56%
68%
97%
100%
94%
% under line
56%
39%
72%
38%
44%
32%
3%
0%
6%
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Venezia
10.4
Parma
10.2
Ternana
10.1
Brescia
10.0
Palermo
10.0
Cremonese
9.8
FeralpiSalo
9.8
Modena
9.7
Bari
9.7
Spezia
9.7
Cosenza
9.6
Lecco
9.6
Como
9.5
Ascoli
9.5
Reggiana
9.3
Catanzaro
9.2
Pisa
9.1
Cittadella
8.8
Sampdoria
8.6
Sudtirol
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cosenza
6.5
Pisa
6.2
Spezia
5.7
Modena
5.7
Ascoli
5.7
Bari
5.7
Sampdoria
5.7
Cittadella
5.6
Lecco
5.5
Sudtirol
5.4
Parma
5.4
Catanzaro
5.3
Reggiana
5.3
Palermo
5.2
Cremonese
5.2
Como
5.1
FeralpiSalo
5.1
Brescia
5.0
Ternana
4.9
Venezia
4.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ascoli
32.1
Cittadella
32.1
Sampdoria
30.2
Sudtirol
30.1
Spezia
29.8
Reggiana
29.6
Bari
29.3
Como
29.1
Catanzaro
28.9
Pisa
28.8
Palermo
28.8
Modena
28.7
Brescia
28.5
Lecco
27.9
Cremonese
27.4
Cosenza
27.3
Ternana
27.3
Parma
26.8
FeralpiSalo
26.8
Venezia
25.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
34.1%
Under 9.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
78.1%
Under 3.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
95.0%
Under 21.5
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cittadella
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.87
0.47
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.31
1.12
0.38
0.38
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Bari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bari
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.50
0.27
0.33
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.26
0.58
0.11
0.56
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.29
0.75
0.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cittadella
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.67
0.73
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.92
0.83
0.83
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.62
0.38
0.75
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Bari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bari
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.97
0.80
0.73
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.89
0.67
0.78
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
1.14
1.00
0.50
0.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cittadella
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luca Pandolfi24%
Filippo Pittarello14%
Alessio Vita11%
Stefano Negro10%
Andrea Magrassi10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Tommy Maistrello9%
Enrico Baldini9%
Francesco Amatucci7%
Giuseppe Carriero6%
Simone Branca6%
Lorenzo Carissoni6%
Alessandro Salvi3%
Nicola Pavan3%
Luca Maniero0%
Domenico Frare0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Federico Giraudo0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Andrea Tessiore0%
Valerio Mastrantonio0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Edoardo Sottini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Simone Branca47%
Federico Giraudo37%
Stefano Negro35%
Alessandro Salvi34%
Edoardo Sottini29%
Enrico Baldini27%
Lorenzo Carissoni27%
Matteo Angeli25%
Francesco Amatucci18%
Andrea Tessiore17%
Giuseppe Carriero13%
Valerio Mastrantonio12%
Filippo Pittarello11%
Alessio Rizza11%
Domenico Frare10%
Andrea Magrassi10%
Nicola Pavan10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Luca Pandolfi9%
Alessio Vita9%
Tommy Maistrello6%
Elhan Kastrati3%
Luca Maniero0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alessio Vita11%
Federico Giraudo11%
Alessandro Salvi10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Lorenzo Carissoni9%
Luca Pandolfi9%
Filippo Pittarello9%
Simone Branca6%
Stefano Negro5%
Andrea Tessiore4%
Valerio Mastrantonio4%
Nicola Pavan3%
Tommy Maistrello3%
Luca Maniero0%
Domenico Frare0%
Giuseppe Carriero0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Enrico Baldini0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Andrea Magrassi0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Edoardo Sottini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco Amatucci0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Filippo Pittarello23%
Luca Pandolfi15%
Stefano Negro10%
Alessio Vita9%
Giuseppe Carriero6%
Tommy Maistrello6%
Andrea Tessiore4%
Alessandro Salvi3%
Andrea Magrassi3%
Claudio Cassano3%
Luca Maniero0%
Domenico Frare0%
Simone Branca0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Enrico Baldini0%
Federico Giraudo0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Valerio Mastrantonio0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Edoardo Sottini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco Amatucci0%
Bari
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giuseppe Sibilli32%
George Pușcaș24%
Marco Nasti19%
Davide Diaw17%
Valerio Di Cesare16%
Malcom Edjouma9%
Ilias Koutsoupias7%
Giacomo Ricci6%
Ismail Achik4%
Raffaele Pucino4%
Ahmad Benali3%
Mehdi Dorval3%
Francesco Vicari3%
Karlo Lulić0%
Brenno0%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Gennaro Acampora0%
Gregorio Morachioli0%
Raffaele Maiello0%
Gianluca Frabotta0%
Marco Pissardo0%
Mattia Aramu0%
Jérémy Ménez0%
Abdoul Guiebre0%
Mattia Maita0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Nicola Bellomo0%
Žan Žužek0%
Yayah Kallon0%
Vincenzo Colangiuli0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Valerio Di Cesare58%
Ahmad Benali30%
Marco Nasti30%
Gennaro Acampora27%
Giuseppe Sibilli27%
Abdoul Guiebre25%
Raffaele Maiello24%
Giacomo Ricci24%
Jérémy Ménez20%
Francesco Vicari18%
Emmanuele Matino18%
Davide Diaw17%
Mattia Maita16%
Nicola Bellomo14%
Ilias Koutsoupias14%
Yayah Kallon14%
Raffaele Pucino12%
Mehdi Dorval11%
Brenno9%
Malcom Edjouma9%
Ismail Achik9%
Karlo Lulić6%
Gregorio Morachioli4%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Gianluca Frabotta0%
George Pușcaș0%
Marco Pissardo0%
Mattia Aramu0%
Žan Žužek0%
Vincenzo Colangiuli0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yayah Kallon14%
Giuseppe Sibilli14%
Giacomo Ricci12%
Jérémy Ménez10%
Gennaro Acampora9%
Gregorio Morachioli8%
Mehdi Dorval8%
Ilias Koutsoupias7%
Mattia Maita6%
Karlo Lulić6%
Raffaele Maiello6%
Marco Nasti5%
Mattia Aramu5%
Ismail Achik4%
Francesco Vicari3%
Brenno0%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Malcom Edjouma0%
Davide Diaw0%
Ahmad Benali0%
Gianluca Frabotta0%
George Pușcaș0%
Raffaele Pucino0%
Marco Pissardo0%
Abdoul Guiebre0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Nicola Bellomo0%
Valerio Di Cesare0%
Žan Žužek0%
Vincenzo Colangiuli0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Giuseppe Sibilli22%
George Pușcaș18%
Davide Diaw17%
Marco Nasti14%
Ismail Achik13%
Gennaro Acampora9%
Ilias Koutsoupias7%
Valerio Di Cesare6%
Karlo Lulić6%
Malcom Edjouma5%
Raffaele Pucino4%
Mattia Maita3%
Brenno0%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Gregorio Morachioli0%
Francesco Vicari0%
Ahmad Benali0%
Raffaele Maiello0%
Gianluca Frabotta0%
Marco Pissardo0%
Giacomo Ricci0%
Mattia Aramu0%
Jérémy Ménez0%
Abdoul Guiebre0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Nicola Bellomo0%
Žan Žužek0%
Mehdi Dorval0%
Yayah Kallon0%
Vincenzo Colangiuli0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Venezia
Parma
Como
Cremonese
Catanzaro
Palermo
Sampdoria
Brescia
Cosenza
Sudtirol
Modena
Reggiana
Pisa
Ternana
Spezia
Ascoli
FeralpiSalo
Lecco