This opponent (Perugia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Perugia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.83
0.87
0.73
1.20
0.93
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
0.91
1.00
0.50
1.14
1.14
vs Similar (19)
1.00
0.79
0.82
0.82
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
63.4%
Under 1.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.1%
@ 2.41-3.9%
Under 2.5
64.9%
@ 1.54+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.2%
Under 3.5
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.6%
No
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0 ✓
13.6%
0-1
12.1%
1-0
10.9%
1-2
7.4%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
6.2%
Cittadella goals ↓
Perugia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
12%
7.4%
2.7%
0.7%
1
11%
15%
7.4%
2.7%
0.7%
2
6.2%
6.8%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
3
2.1%
2.3%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cittadella goals (down), columns = Perugia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lecce
1.87
Cremonese
1.82
Pisa
1.76
Monza
1.76
Brescia
1.74
Ascoli
1.71
Benevento
1.66
Frosinone
1.53
Perugia
1.53
Ternana
1.42
Cittadella
1.37
Parma
1.29
Reggina
1.26
Como
1.24
Spal
1.11
Cosenza
0.92
Alessandria
0.89
Vicenza Virtus
0.89
Crotone
0.68
Pordenone
0.47
Cittadella is 0.16 points worse than Perugia in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benevento
1.63
Monza
1.58
Lecce
1.55
Frosinone
1.53
Ternana
1.53
Cremonese
1.50
Brescia
1.45
Ascoli
1.37
Como
1.29
Pisa
1.26
Parma
1.26
Spal
1.21
Crotone
1.08
Perugia
1.05
Cittadella
1.00
Vicenza Virtus
1.00
Alessandria
0.97
Cosenza
0.95
Reggina
0.82
Pordenone
0.76
Cittadella is 0.05 goals worse than Perugia in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lecce
0.82
Perugia
0.84
Pisa
0.92
Brescia
0.92
Cittadella
0.95
Monza
1.00
Cremonese
1.03
Benevento
1.03
Ascoli
1.11
Parma
1.13
Frosinone
1.18
Reggina
1.29
Spal
1.42
Como
1.42
Alessandria
1.55
Cosenza
1.55
Vicenza Virtus
1.55
Ternana
1.61
Crotone
1.61
Pordenone
1.87
Cittadella is 0.11 goals worse than Perugia in terms of goals conceded per game (0.95 vs 0.84).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cittadella
For 5.3 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.3 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 19.9 · Against 18.6 · Total 38.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Perugia
For 6.2 · Against 4.8 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.7 · Against 3.1 · Total 6.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.0 · Against 16.4 · Total 34.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cittadella
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.2
10.6
6.3
6.5
6.0
33.7
35.0
32.4
vs Stronger (19)
10.4
8.7
11.9
7.2
7.4
7.0
33.6
34.4
32.9
vs Similar (31)
9.5
9.4
9.7
5.7
6.0
5.4
33.8
35.4
32.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
60%
56%
88%
88%
88%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
42%
40%
44%
12%
12%
12%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Perugia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Perugia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.6
9.2
5.9
6.0
5.9
33.4
32.7
34.1
vs Stronger (17)
8.6
9.0
8.3
5.9
6.1
5.7
33.1
34.7
32.0
vs Similar (33)
9.8
9.8
9.9
6.0
5.9
6.1
33.6
31.9
35.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
52%
44%
88%
84%
92%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
52%
48%
56%
12%
16%
8%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Brescia
11.5
Pisa
10.8
Benevento
10.8
Alessandria
10.6
Crotone
10.6
Como
10.6
Reggina
10.5
Monza
10.3
Frosinone
10.3
Spal
10.1
Vicenza Virtus
10.1
Ascoli
10.0
Ternana
9.9
Cittadella
9.9
Parma
9.8
Pordenone
9.8
Cremonese
9.7
Perugia
9.4
Lecce
9.4
Cosenza
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cittadella
6.3
Perugia
5.9
Ascoli
5.8
Frosinone
5.8
Pordenone
5.8
Pisa
5.7
Reggina
5.6
Vicenza Virtus
5.5
Parma
5.4
Como
5.3
Alessandria
5.3
Cosenza
5.3
Cremonese
5.3
Monza
5.2
Lecce
5.2
Spal
5.2
Crotone
4.9
Ternana
4.9
Benevento
4.7
Brescia
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Reggina
34.0
Cittadella
33.7
Perugia
33.4
Pisa
33.1
Pordenone
32.6
Alessandria
32.5
Monza
32.1
Frosinone
31.7
Ascoli
31.6
Spal
31.5
Vicenza Virtus
30.8
Como
30.0
Ternana
29.8
Cremonese
29.7
Parma
29.6
Lecce
29.3
Benevento
29.0
Crotone
28.8
Cosenza
27.4
Brescia
26.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
50.7%
Under 9.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
88.5%
Under 3.5
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
98.9%
Under 21.5
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cittadella
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.40
0.57
0.43
0.56
0.38
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
0.46
0.86
0.57
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.35
0.29
0.29
0.70
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Perugia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Perugia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.43
0.47
0.27
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.64
0.50
0.00
0.29
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.32
0.45
0.36
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Perugia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Perugia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Perugia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cittadella
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.57
0.31
0.62
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.77
0.57
0.86
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.47
0.43
0.29
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Perugia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Perugia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.47
0.67
0.33
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
0.27
0.50
0.50
0.86
0.14
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.47
0.36
0.45
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Perugia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Perugia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Perugia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cittadella · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luca Pandolfi24%
Orji Okwonkwo19%
Alessio Vita12%
Simone Rabbi11%
Claudio Cassano10%
Simone Tronchin9%
Riccardo Palmieri8%
Lorenzo Carissoni6%
Mario Ravasio5%
Federico Casolari4%
Jacopo Desogus4%
Edoardo Masciangelo3%
Francesco Amatucci3%
Luca Maniero0%
Simone Branca0%
Davide Diaw0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Stefano Negro0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Alessandro Salvi0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Andrea Tessiore0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Andrea Magrassi0%
Stefano Piccinini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco D'Alessio0%
Andrea Cecchetto0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefano Piccinini60%
Riccardo Palmieri38%
Federico Casolari35%
Simone Branca32%
Elio Capradossi31%
Matteo Angeli29%
Andrea Cecchetto25%
Alessandro Salvi24%
Simone Tronchin22%
Nicola Pavan21%
Francesco Amatucci21%
Simone Rabbi19%
Luca Pandolfi18%
Alessio Rizza17%
Alessio Vita15%
Stefano Negro14%
Mario Ravasio14%
Lorenzo Carissoni14%
Edoardo Masciangelo14%
Jacopo Desogus12%
Andrea Tessiore12%
Andrea Magrassi11%
Luca Maniero10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Francesco D'Alessio8%
Orji Okwonkwo6%
Elhan Kastrati3%
Davide Diaw0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrea Magrassi11%
Mario Ravasio10%
Simone Tronchin9%
Edoardo Masciangelo8%
Francesco D'Alessio8%
Orji Okwonkwo6%
Alessandro Salvi6%
Simone Rabbi6%
Jacopo Desogus4%
Andrea Tessiore4%
Alessio Vita3%
Lorenzo Carissoni3%
Luca Maniero0%
Simone Branca0%
Davide Diaw0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Stefano Negro0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Riccardo Palmieri0%
Luca Pandolfi0%
Stefano Piccinini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco Amatucci0%
Federico Casolari0%
Claudio Cassano0%
Andrea Cecchetto0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luca Pandolfi33%
Orji Okwonkwo19%
Mario Ravasio14%
Simone Rabbi8%
Riccardo Palmieri8%
Alessandro Salvi6%
Alessio Vita6%
Jacopo Desogus4%
Francesco Amatucci3%
Luca Maniero0%
Simone Branca0%
Davide Diaw0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Stefano Negro0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Edoardo Masciangelo0%
Andrea Tessiore0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Andrea Magrassi0%
Stefano Piccinini0%
Simone Tronchin0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco D'Alessio0%
Federico Casolari0%
Claudio Cassano0%
Andrea Cecchetto0%
Perugia · 2022/23
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tiago Casasola26%
Luca Strizzolo20%
Giuseppe Di Serio15%
Samuel Di Carmine14%
Francesco Lisi12%
Gregorio Luperini11%
Federico Melchiorri11%
Marco Olivieri8%
Christian Kouan6%
Gabriele Angella6%
Simone Santoro6%
Miloš Vulić0%
Stipe Vulikić0%
Stefano Gori0%
Paolo Bartolomei0%
Ryder Matos0%
Marcos Curado0%
Cristian Dell'Orco0%
Leonardo Capezzi0%
Andrea Beghetto0%
Aleandro Rosi0%
Filippo Sgarbi0%
Aljaž Struna0%
Jacopo Furlan0%
Yeferson Paz0%
Edoardo Iannoni0%
Emmanuel Ekong0%
Damiano Cancellieri0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Curado43%
Francesco Lisi35%
Aleandro Rosi33%
Simone Santoro29%
Yeferson Paz27%
Marco Olivieri24%
Cristian Dell'Orco24%
Tiago Casasola23%
Christian Kouan23%
Federico Melchiorri22%
Aljaž Struna21%
Paolo Bartolomei19%
Giuseppe Di Serio19%
Edoardo Iannoni18%
Damiano Cancellieri17%
Leonardo Capezzi15%
Miloš Vulić12%
Gabriele Angella12%
Filippo Sgarbi12%
Samuel Di Carmine7%
Ryder Matos7%
Luca Strizzolo7%
Gregorio Luperini3%
Stipe Vulikić0%
Stefano Gori0%
Andrea Beghetto0%
Jacopo Furlan0%
Emmanuel Ekong0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Francesco Lisi15%
Aleandro Rosi13%
Tiago Casasola11%
Emmanuel Ekong11%
Paolo Bartolomei9%
Giuseppe Di Serio7%
Ryder Matos7%
Gabriele Angella6%
Filippo Sgarbi6%
Federico Melchiorri6%
Cristian Dell'Orco5%
Samuel Di Carmine3%
Marcos Curado3%
Christian Kouan3%
Miloš Vulić0%
Stipe Vulikić0%
Stefano Gori0%
Leonardo Capezzi0%
Andrea Beghetto0%
Simone Santoro0%
Luca Strizzolo0%
Gregorio Luperini0%
Aljaž Struna0%
Marco Olivieri0%
Jacopo Furlan0%
Yeferson Paz0%
Edoardo Iannoni0%
Damiano Cancellieri0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Samuel Di Carmine17%
Marco Olivieri16%
Gregorio Luperini11%
Federico Melchiorri11%
Francesco Lisi8%
Yeferson Paz8%
Giuseppe Di Serio7%
Paolo Bartolomei6%
Gabriele Angella6%
Tiago Casasola6%
Christian Kouan3%
Miloš Vulić0%
Stipe Vulikić0%
Stefano Gori0%
Ryder Matos0%
Marcos Curado0%
Cristian Dell'Orco0%
Leonardo Capezzi0%
Andrea Beghetto0%
Aleandro Rosi0%
Filippo Sgarbi0%
Simone Santoro0%
Luca Strizzolo0%
Aljaž Struna0%
Jacopo Furlan0%
Edoardo Iannoni0%
Emmanuel Ekong0%
Damiano Cancellieri0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Lecce
Cremonese
Monza
Pisa
Brescia
Ascoli
Benevento
Frosinone
Ternana
Parma
Reggina
Como
Spal
Cosenza
Vicenza Virtus