Colwyn Bay, fresh from a 2-0 win over Llandudno, are the clear favourite, the model giving them a 69% chance of victory. Their home form against weaker opponents is strong, averaging three goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while Llandudno’s away record against stronger sides is weaker, with 2.62 scored and 2.25 conceded. The prediction favours a 3-1 scoreline, the most likely outcome at 7.5% probability, and the expected total is 4.6 goals, with a 32% chance of six or more. The match is projected to end with a home win. The probabilities are 69% for a home win, 16% for a draw and 15% for an away win. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 at 95%, Over 2.5 at 84.1% and BTTS Yes at 74.9%. The edge for the Over 1.5 pick is highlighted.
The match finished 3-0, confirming the model’s prediction of a home win. Colwyn Bay, riding a win in their last five, extended that streak with a convincing victory over Llandudno, who had just suffered a defeat. The model’s favourite, Home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 69%. The suggested selections performed as follows: Over 1.5, hit at 95%; Over 2.5, hit at 84.1%; BTTS Yes, missed at 74.9%. The final score of 3-0 also matched the most likely outcome of 3-1, which the model assigned a 7.5% probability. Overall, the model’s call and key picks were largely accurate.
Colwyn Bay| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.97 | 0.83 | 3.43 | 0.71 | 2.56 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 4.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 3.32 | 0.64 | 3.55 | 0.55 | 3.09 | 0.73 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 2.14 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Llandudno| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.37 | 1.93 | 2.50 | 1.38 | 2.21 | 2.57 |
| vs Stronger (19) | 2.63 | 1.79 | 2.64 | 1.45 | 2.62 | 2.25 |
| vs Similar (9) | 2.22 | 1.89 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 3.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Llandudno goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 2.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 4.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 5.0% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| 4 | 3.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
Colwyn Bay| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 0.33 | 1.64 | 0.36 | 1.25 | 0.31 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.59 | 0.23 | 1.82 | 0.27 | 1.36 | 0.18 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.00 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
Llandudno| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.77 | 0.88 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (19) | 1.00 | 0.74 | 0.91 | 0.73 | 1.12 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.89 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Colwyn Bay| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 0.50 | 1.79 | 0.36 | 1.31 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 3.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.73 | 0.41 | 1.73 | 0.27 | 1.73 | 0.55 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.14 | 0.43 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
Llandudno| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.17 | 1.62 | 0.81 | 1.21 | 1.57 |
| vs Stronger (19) | 1.63 | 1.05 | 1.73 | 0.73 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (9) | 1.33 | 1.22 | 1.75 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 95.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 84.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| BTTS Yes | 74.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 15/04/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 29/07/22 | A | 2-2 |
Colwyn Bay| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 25/03/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 21/03/25 | A | 0-4 | |
| 08/03/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 01/03/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 22/02/25 | H | 3-2 | |
| 15/02/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 08/02/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 24/01/25 | A | 1-5 | |
| 17/01/25 | H | 3-1 |
Llandudno| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/25 | H | 2-3 | |
| 21/03/25 | A | 3-4 | |
| 07/03/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/03/25 | A | 2-3 | |
| 22/02/25 | A | 1-5 | |
| 07/02/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 24/01/25 | H | 5-2 | |
| 18/01/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 11/01/25 | H | 4-0 | |
| 01/01/25 | H | 0-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | 30 | 81 | 87% | 2.7 | 88 | 22 | +66 | 3.7 | 87% | 70% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Airbus UK | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 102 | 30 | +72 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 64 | 60% | 2.1 | 64 | 25 | +39 | 3.0 | 87% | 50% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 59 | 57% | 2.0 | 53 | 33 | +20 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | - |
| 5 | Holywell | 30 | 57 | 60% | 1.9 | 56 | 41 | +15 | 3.2 | 87% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 | Newport City | 30 | 54 | 53% | 1.8 | 50 | 32 | +18 | 2.7 | 73% | 57% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Trefelin | 30 | 53 | 50% | 1.8 | 54 | 41 | +13 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 8 | Pontypridd Town | 30 | 53 | 53% | 1.8 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 3.3 | 83% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 50 | 43% | 1.7 | 50 | 38 | +12 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 10 | Llandudno | 30 | 49 | 50% | 1.6 | 65 | 60 | +5 | 4.2 | 97% | 77% | 63% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Buckley Town | 30 | 47 | 47% | 1.6 | 48 | 47 | +1 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 45 | 40% | 1.5 | 55 | 44 | +11 | 3.3 | 83% | 57% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 13 | Guilsfield | 30 | 45 | 43% | 1.5 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 3.7 | 90% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 14 | Flint Mountain | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 4.1 | 90% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 15 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 52 | 48 | +4 | 3.3 | 83% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 16 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 2.6 | 73% | 43% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | - |
| 17 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 43 | 40% | 1.4 | 68 | 62 | +6 | 4.3 | 97% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 18 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 37 | 34 | +3 | 2.4 | 67% | 37% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 19 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 3.3 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 20 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 38 | 37% | 1.3 | 44 | 67 | -23 | 3.7 | 80% | 63% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | - |
| 21 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 36 | 37% | 1.2 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 3.2 | 87% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 22 | Afan Lido | 30 | 34 | 27% | 1.1 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 3.2 | 87% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 23 | Caersws | 30 | 34 | 33% | 1.1 | 47 | 55 | -8 | 3.4 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Caerau (Ely) | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 25 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 3.4 | 77% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 26 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 29 | 27% | 1.0 | 40 | 59 | -19 | 3.3 | 77% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 27 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 30 | 28 | 27% | 0.9 | 46 | 64 | -18 | 3.7 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | - |
| 28 | Penrhiwceiber Rangers | 30 | 28 | 23% | 0.9 | 30 | 57 | -27 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | - |
| 29 | Goytre United | 30 | 23 | 20% | 0.8 | 41 | 72 | -31 | 3.8 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.4 | - |
| 30 | Taffs Well | 30 | 15 | 10% | 0.5 | 32 | 76 | -44 | 3.6 | 93% | 73% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | - |
| 31 | Llay Miners Welfare | 30 | 14 | 10% | 0.5 | 35 | 84 | -49 | 4.0 | 90% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 32 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 13 | 13% | 0.4 | 38 | 105 | -67 | 4.8 | 90% | 80% | 70% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 3.5 | - |