Cork City's recent 3-game winning run against Kerry, including a 3-1 victory, has set the tone for this matchup. However, the model's selection for this match is the home win, with a 45% probability, making it the favourite. The away win probability sits at 33%, while the draw probability is 22%. The expected total goals are 3.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 3.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 8.6% probability. Cork City has a strong home form, scoring an average of 1.62 goals and conceding 1.25 against weaker opponents. Kerry's away form is less impressive, scoring 1.5 goals and conceding 2 against stronger opponents.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, with a 90.5% probability, and a 13% edge, Over 2.5, with a 73.9% probability and a 17% edge, and BTTS Yes, with a 73.4% probability and a 22% edge. Home win percentage is 45%, draw percentage is 22%, and away win percentage is 33%.
Results analysis
Cork City's win extends their 3-game winning run, with the last two victories coming against Kerry. The match ended 3-1 in their favour, confirming the actual result. The model's selection, Home win, proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 45%. This selection was the favourite, indicating a slight edge in favour of the home team. The model's other selections largely came in, with Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 both hitting, and BTTS Yes also correct. Over 1.5 had a pre-match probability of 90.5%, while Over 2.5 was predicted at 73.9%. BTTS Yes had a 73.4% chance of occurring.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cork City win✓ Hit
44.6%
Avg Implied 65.1% · @ 1.39
Edge
-20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.45
Dafabet
1.44
Bet365
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Draw✗ Miss
22.5%
Avg Implied 21.7% · @ 4.16
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Dafabet
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Pinnacle
4.21
Kerry win✗ Miss
32.9%
Avg Implied 13.2% · @ 6.87
Edge
+19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
8.73
Betfair
8.00
10Bet
8.00
1xBet
7.60
Marathonbet
7.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cork City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.83
1.27
1.40
1.00
2.27
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.78
0.60
1.00
0.75
2.75
vs Similar (19)
1.16
1.95
1.44
1.56
0.90
2.30
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kerry
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.57
1.20
1.13
1.47
2.00
vs Stronger (24)
1.29
1.75
1.00
1.25
1.58
2.25
vs Similar (6)
1.50
0.83
2.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Cork City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.5%
@ 1.18+12.7%
Under 1.5
9.5%
@ 4.11-12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.78
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
73.9%
@ 1.60+16.6%
Under 2.5
26.1%
@ 2.15-16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.71
Bet365
1.65
Pinnacle
1.62
888Sport
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.32
10Bet
2.25
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
Betfair
2.20
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
53.7%
@ 2.48+16.8%
Under 3.5
46.3%
@ 1.45-16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.75
Betfair
2.63
888Sport
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.55
Under
Pinnacle
1.52
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
73.4%
@ 1.78+22.1%
No
26.6%
@ 1.87-22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.90
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.77
No
888Sport
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.6%@ 7.80+3.1%
2-1
8.1%@ 7.08+2.1%
2-2
7.2%@ 15.53+4.4%
1-2
7.0%@ 19.70+4.8%
3-1 ✓
5.6%@ 10.10+1.4%
3-2
5.0%@ 21.33+3.0%
2-0
4.6%@ 6.63-1.9%
2-3
4.3%@ 53.43+3.5%
Cork City goals ↓
Kerry goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.9%
3.0%
3.4%
2.0%
0.9%
1
3.6%
8.6%
7.0%
4.1%
1.8%
2
4.6%
8.1%
7.2%
4.3%
1.9%
3
3.2%
5.6%
5.0%
3.0%
1.3%
4
1.6%
2.9%
2.6%
1.5%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cork City goals (down), columns = Kerry goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Cork City is 0.14 points worse than Kerry in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Cork City is 0.29 goals better than Kerry in terms of goals scored per game (2.57 vs 2.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Cork City is 0.86 goals worse than Kerry in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cork City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.90
0.47
0.67
0.33
1.13
vs Stronger (9)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.60
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.89
0.44
0.67
0.50
1.10
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
3.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kerry
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.80
0.40
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (24)
0.58
0.67
0.58
0.42
0.58
0.92
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.17
1.67
0.33
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Cork City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cork City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cork City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.93
0.80
0.73
0.67
1.13
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.78
0.60
0.40
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (19)
0.68
1.05
1.00
0.89
0.40
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kerry
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.00
0.40
0.73
0.93
1.27
vs Stronger (24)
0.71
1.08
0.42
0.83
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Cork City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cork City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
90.5%
1.18
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+12.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
73.9%
1.60
Unibet
1.71
Bet365
1.65
Pinnacle
1.62
888Sport
1.62
10Bet
1.62
+16.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cork City · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ruairi Keating43%
Djenairo Daniels33%
Sean Maguire22%
Matthew Murray17%
Kitt Nelson17%
Alex Nolan12%
Malik Dijksteel11%
Evan McLaughlin11%
Greg Bolger5%
Joshua Fitzpatrick4%
Charlie Lyons4%
Freddie Anderson4%
Darragh Crowley3%
Fiacre Kelleher0%
Sean Murray0%
Rory Feely0%
David Odumosu0%
Tein Troost0%
Charlie Lutz0%
Benny Couto0%
Conor Brann0%
Milan Mbeng0%
Harry Nevin0%
Rio Shipston0%
Kaedyn Kamara0%
Cathal O'Sullivan0%
Matthew Kiernan0%
Harvey Skieters0%
Brody Lee0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ruairi Keating43%
Kaedyn Kamara40%
Matthew Kiernan38%
Milan Mbeng38%
Greg Bolger32%
Rio Shipston29%
Charlie Lyons24%
Fiacre Kelleher22%
Sean Maguire22%
Cathal O'Sullivan21%
Darragh Crowley19%
Rory Feely17%
Joshua Fitzpatrick17%
Kitt Nelson17%
Brody Lee17%
Tein Troost16%
Alex Nolan15%
Evan McLaughlin15%
Harry Nevin11%
Sean Murray11%
Djenairo Daniels8%
Freddie Anderson7%
Benny Couto6%
David Odumosu0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Charlie Lutz0%
Conor Brann0%
Matthew Murray0%
Harvey Skieters0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Djenairo Daniels17%
Cathal O'Sullivan16%
Benny Couto12%
Rio Shipston12%
Conor Brann9%
Evan McLaughlin7%
Milan Mbeng6%
Greg Bolger5%
Matthew Kiernan5%
Sean Maguire4%
Joshua Fitzpatrick4%
Freddie Anderson4%
Kitt Nelson3%
Darragh Crowley3%
Fiacre Kelleher0%
Sean Murray0%
Rory Feely0%
Charlie Lyons0%
Ruairi Keating0%
David Odumosu0%
Tein Troost0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Alex Nolan0%
Charlie Lutz0%
Harry Nevin0%
Kaedyn Kamara0%
Matthew Murray0%
Harvey Skieters0%
Brody Lee0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ruairi Keating43%
Sean Maguire17%
Fiacre Kelleher11%
Malik Dijksteel11%
Djenairo Daniels8%
Alex Nolan8%
Evan McLaughlin7%
Sean Murray7%
Milan Mbeng6%
Benny Couto6%
Joshua Fitzpatrick4%
Greg Bolger0%
Rory Feely0%
Darragh Crowley0%
Charlie Lyons0%
David Odumosu0%
Tein Troost0%
Charlie Lutz0%
Conor Brann0%
Harry Nevin0%
Rio Shipston0%
Kaedyn Kamara0%
Matthew Murray0%
Freddie Anderson0%
Cathal O'Sullivan0%
Kitt Nelson0%
Matthew Kiernan0%
Harvey Skieters0%
Brody Lee0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Cork City and Kerry have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Cork City and Kerry have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Cork City and Kerry have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →