The contest between Coventry and Brighton is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home win stands at 33%, a draw at 28%, and the away side at 39%. The expected total is 2.7 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 26%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.5% chance. Coventry, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.44 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Brighton, on the road against a similar tier, averages 1.45 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6% with a 6% edge), Under 6.5 (98.0% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.5% with a 6% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (95.8% with a 1% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.7% with a 4% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (94.6% with a 7% edge), and Under 5.5 (94.4% with a 4% edge). Both teams have recently come off defeats, adding to the uncertainty.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Coventry win
33.2%
Avg Implied 21.9% · @ 4.31
Edge
+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.62
Marathonbet
4.55
Betano
4.40
Dafabet
4.40
Pinnacle
4.39
Draw
28.3%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.76
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.96
Betfair
3.90
Marathonbet
3.90
Dafabet
3.80
Pinnacle
3.76
Brighton win
38.6%
Avg Implied 53.1% · @ 1.77
Edge
-14.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.83
Unibet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.80
William Hil
1.80
Betano
1.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Coventry
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.00
1.73
0.87
1.60
1.13
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.67
0.89
1.44
1.00
1.89
0.78
vs Weaker (11)
1.82
1.00
2.17
0.67
1.40
1.40
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brighton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.13
1.64
0.71
1.12
1.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.50
1.09
1.55
0.73
1.45
1.45
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Coventry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.2%
@ 1.23-0.1%
Under 1.5
23.8%
@ 3.95+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.10
Betano
3.95
10Bet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.94
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.4%
@ 1.75-3.9%
Under 2.5
49.6%
@ 2.08+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Bet365
1.73
Under
1xBet
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.4%
@ 2.81-5.0%
Under 3.5
71.6%
@ 1.41+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.90
Pinnacle
2.89
Unibet
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.80
Under
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Unibet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Both teams to score
Yes
55.8%
@ 1.68+0.4%
No
44.2%
@ 2.09-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.70
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
No
10Bet
2.15
Betfair
2.15
William Hil
2.10
Unibet
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 6.92+7.0%
1-2
8.6%@ 7.61+2.7%
0-1
8.3%@ 7.48+2.3%
0-0
8.0%@ 11.73+4.2%
2-1
7.9%@ 12.92+4.4%
1-0
7.5%@ 12.33+3.8%
0-2
6.7%@ 8.50+1.4%
2-0
5.6%@ 22.60+3.6%
Coventry goals ↓
Brighton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
8.3%
6.7%
3.1%
1.1%
1
7.5%
13%
8.6%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.6%
7.9%
5.5%
2.6%
0.9%
3
2.4%
3.4%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Coventry goals (down), columns = Brighton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brentford
1.39
Brighton
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Coventry is 0.43 points worse than Brighton in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Coventry is 0.39 goals worse than Brighton in terms of goals scored per game (0.98 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Coventry is 0.72 goals worse than Brighton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Coventry
For 4.5 · Against 2.7 · Total 7.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 13.4 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brighton
For 6.6 · Against 3.6 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 8.6 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Coventry
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.4
9.6
3.6
3.7
3.4
21.3
21.6
21.0
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
-
10.0
1.0
-
1.0
23.0
-
23.0
vs Similar (29)
9.5
9.9
9.2
4.0
4.5
3.6
22.0
22.7
21.3
vs Weaker (19)
9.5
8.8
10.2
3.1
2.6
3.6
20.2
19.8
20.5
% over line
41%
30%
50%
46%
52%
41%
45%
52%
38%
% under line
59%
70%
50%
54%
48%
59%
55%
48%
62%
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brighton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.1
10.2
4.0
3.6
4.3
22.2
21.7
22.5
vs Stronger (9)
8.0
7.5
8.4
4.6
5.0
4.2
24.1
23.8
24.4
vs Similar (37)
10.0
9.6
10.4
4.1
3.4
4.7
21.6
21.4
21.8
vs Weaker (4)
10.8
7.0
12.0
1.8
1.0
2.0
22.5
19.0
23.7
% over line
57%
41%
70%
58%
57%
59%
53%
41%
63%
% under line
43%
59%
30%
42%
43%
41%
47%
59%
37%
This opponent (Coventry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Brighton
9.7
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Manchester United
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Everton
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Sunderland
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.3
Hull
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.9
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.7
Sunderland
22.7
Leeds
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Everton
21.6
Manchester United
21.5
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
20.0
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.4%
@ 1.83+3.4%
Under 9.5
46.6%
@ 1.83-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.83
Under
Unibet
1.83
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
55.2%
Under 3.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
49.8%
Under 21.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Coventry or Draw
61.4%
Avg Implied 46.7% · @ 2.01
Edge
+14.8%
33%
28%
39%
covers Coventry + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.09
Marathonbet
2.08
Bet365
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Betano
2.05
Coventry or Brighton
71.7%
Avg Implied 75.5% · @ 1.24
Edge
-3.8%
33%
28%
39%
covers Coventry + Brighton
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Draw or Brighton
66.8%
Avg Implied 77.8% · @ 1.21
Edge
-11.0%
33%
28%
39%
covers Draw + Brighton
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
William Hil
1.20
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Coventry over/under 0.5
Over
72.4%
@ 1.43+7.4%
Under
27.6%
@ 2.65-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.72
Unibet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.62
10Bet
2.62
Coventry over/under 1.5
Over
36.9%
@ 3.10+6.8%
Under
63.1%
@ 1.33-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.28
Pinnacle
3.27
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.13
10Bet
3.10
Under
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.35
Unibet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Coventry over/under 2.5
Over
14.0%
@ 8.48+2.9%
Under
86.0%
@ 1.06-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.30
1xBet
8.70
Betfair
7.50
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Coventry over/under 3.5
Over
4.2%
@ 18.88-0.9%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.01+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Brighton over/under 0.5
Over
75.4%
@ 1.14-6.1%
Under
24.6%
@ 5.02+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Brighton over/under 1.5
Over
40.9%
@ 1.74-12.7%
Under
59.1%
@ 2.01+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Betano
1.75
BetVictor
1.75
Under
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.03
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.02
Brighton over/under 2.5
Over
16.7%
@ 3.35-11.1%
Under
83.3%
@ 1.29+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.50
Pinnacle
3.45
Marathonbet
3.44
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Under
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Brighton over/under 3.5
Over
5.4%
@ 7.42-7.2%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.07+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.90
Marathonbet
7.70
Betfair
7.00
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Coventry, so a minus line means Coventry give that many goals of a start and Brighton receive them. At -1, Coventry must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Coventry win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Coventry)
Coventry -2
5.2%
@ 22.67+1.1%
Draw -2
9.9%
@ 12.33+2.4%
Brighton +2
85.0%
@ 1.05-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
26.00
Betfair
23.00
10Bet
19.00
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Handicap -1 (Coventry)
Coventry -1
15.0%
@ 8.58+4.7%
Draw -1
18.2%
@ 5.48+2.0%
Brighton +1
66.8%
@ 1.21-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
5.40
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.40
Marathonbet
3.74
Away
Marathonbet
1.23
Unibet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Handicap +1 (Coventry)
Coventry +1
61.4%
@ 2.00+16.5%
Draw +1
19.9%
@ 3.62-5.0%
Brighton -1
18.6%
@ 2.98-11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.08
10Bet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.94
Draw
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Away
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.99
Unibet
2.95
10Bet
2.95
Handicap +2 (Coventry)
Coventry +2
81.4%
@ 1.34+14.4%
Draw +2
11.7%
@ 4.98-6.3%
Brighton -2
6.9%
@ 5.95-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Draw
Marathonbet
5.35
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Away
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
Unibet
5.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Coventry
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.33
0.60
0.33
1.00
0.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.28
0.44
0.33
1.33
0.22
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.27
0.83
0.33
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brighton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
1.00
0.43
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.55
0.91
0.36
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Coventry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.7%
@ 1.34+1.6%
Under 0.5
28.3%
@ 3.14-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.26
William Hil
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.12
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.6%
@ 2.54+0.9%
Under 1.5
62.4%
@ 1.47-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.63
Marathonbet
2.63
Pinnacle
2.62
Betano
2.62
Betfair
2.55
Under
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.2%
@ 6.38-1.4%
Under 2.5
86.8%
@ 1.10+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Marathonbet
6.55
1xBet
6.55
William Hil
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
1xBet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Coventry over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.3%
@ 2.43-1.0%
Under
62.7%
@ 1.50+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.57
Marathonbet
2.46
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Under
Unibet
1.53
10Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
Coventry over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.1%
@ 8.95-3.3%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.04+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
9.00
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Coventry over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
@ 13.50-5.5%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
13.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Brighton over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.2%
@ 1.69+0.4%
Under
44.8%
@ 2.04-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Unibet
1.67
Under
10Bet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.10
Unibet
2.02
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Brighton over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.3%
@ 4.52-3.1%
Under
82.7%
@ 1.16+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.50
Betano
4.45
10Bet
4.33
Under
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Brighton over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.3%
@ 10.00-4.1%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.03+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Coventry
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
1.13
0.53
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.61
1.00
0.67
0.56
0.56
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.73
1.33
0.33
0.80
1.20
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brighton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.64
0.29
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.55
0.64
0.36
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Coventry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.9%
@ 1.20+2.6%
Under 0.5
19.1%
@ 4.32-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Under
Marathonbet
4.50
1xBet
4.45
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.4%
@ 1.95+2.2%
Under 1.5
49.6%
@ 1.81-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.00
William Hil
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Under
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.2%
@ 3.97-2.4%
Under 2.5
78.8%
@ 1.23+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.75
Under
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Coventry over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.8%
@ 2.03+1.1%
Under
53.2%
@ 1.72-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.04
Betano
2.02
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.69
Coventry over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.8%
@ 6.40-2.7%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.08+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.00
1xBet
6.50
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Coventry over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
@ 11.50-5.6%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.02+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Brighton over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.3%
@ 1.48-3.9%
Under
40.7%
@ 2.54+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.50
Brighton over/under 1.5 2H
Over
34.4%
@ 3.22+5.6%
Under
65.6%
@ 1.30-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Under
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Brighton over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.3%
@ 8.10-5.1%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.04+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.90
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.5%
Under 6.5
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.1%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.6%
Home under 3.5 goals
95.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+0.9%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.7%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
Away under 3.5 goals
94.6%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
+7.2%
Under 5.5
94.4%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.02
BetVictor
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
+3.7%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.7%
1.04
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.1%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
+3.3%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
1.08
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-
+2.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.8%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
1xBet
1.08
+1.4%
Under 4.5
86.4%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
BetVictor
1.11
+4.2%
Home under 2.5 goals
86.0%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-2.9%
Away +2 handicap
85.0%
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-3.4%
Away under 2.5 goals
83.3%
1.29
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
+11.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
82.7%
1.16
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-
+3.1%
Home +2 handicap
81.4%
1.34
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.32
+14.4%
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.20
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
+2.6%
Under 25.5 fouls
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.8%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+2.4%
Over 1.5
76.2%
1.23
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
-0.1%
Away over 0.5 goals
75.4%
1.14
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
-6.1%
Over 2.5 cards
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.4%
1.43
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
Bet365
1.44
+7.4%
Home or Away
71.7%
1.24
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
-3.8%
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.7%
1.34
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
10Bet
1.33
+1.6%
Under 3.5
71.6%
1.41
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Unibet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
+5.0%
Under 11.5 corners
70.4%
1.32
Unibet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+1.0%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Coventry
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Taiwo Awoniyi33%
Victor Torp33%
Jack Rudoni33%
Gustavo Hamer0%
Brandon Thomas-Asante0%
Aurèle Amenda0%
Bobby Thomas0%
Caleb Yirenkyi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aurèle Amenda33%
Caleb Yirenkyi33%
Taiwo Awoniyi0%
Victor Torp0%
Jack Rudoni0%
Gustavo Hamer0%
Brandon Thomas-Asante0%
Bobby Thomas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Taiwo Awoniyi33%
Victor Torp33%
Caleb Yirenkyi33%
Jack Rudoni0%
Gustavo Hamer0%
Brandon Thomas-Asante0%
Aurèle Amenda0%
Bobby Thomas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Taiwo Awoniyi33%
Victor Torp0%
Jack Rudoni0%
Gustavo Hamer0%
Brandon Thomas-Asante0%
Aurèle Amenda0%
Bobby Thomas0%
Caleb Yirenkyi0%
Brighton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Maxim De Cuyper50%
Pascal Groß25%
Olivier Boscagli25%
Mats Wieffer25%
Charalampos Kostoulas25%
Malick Yalcouyé25%
Lewis Dunk0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Costinha0%
Yasin Ayari0%
Diego Gómez0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Luka Vušković0%
Zadok Yohanna0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lewis Dunk33%
Costinha33%
Yasin Ayari33%
Pascal Groß25%
Olivier Boscagli25%
Luka Vušković25%
Mats Wieffer0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Maxim De Cuyper0%
Diego Gómez0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Charalampos Kostoulas0%
Malick Yalcouyé0%
Zadok Yohanna0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maxim De Cuyper25%
Diego Gómez25%
Charalampos Kostoulas25%
Lewis Dunk0%
Pascal Groß0%
Olivier Boscagli0%
Mats Wieffer0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Costinha0%
Yasin Ayari0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Luka Vušković0%
Malick Yalcouyé0%
Zadok Yohanna0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Diego Gómez50%
Yasin Ayari33%
Maxim De Cuyper25%
Charalampos Kostoulas25%
Lewis Dunk0%
Pascal Groß0%
Olivier Boscagli0%
Mats Wieffer0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Costinha0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Luka Vušković0%
Malick Yalcouyé0%
Zadok Yohanna0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Coventry's squad is €383m less valuable than Brighton's (€237m vs €620m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Coventry's attack is €105m less valuable than Brighton's (€85m vs €190m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Coventry's midfield is €128m less valuable than Brighton's (€52m vs €180m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Coventry's defence is €150m less valuable than Brighton's (€99m vs €249m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham