This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Northampton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.37
0.93
1.40
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
2.33
0.50
2.25
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (24)
1.04
1.12
1.09
1.09
1.00
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.6%
@ 2.03+1.0%
Under 2.5
52.4%
@ 1.77-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.9%
Under 3.5
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-0
8.9%
1-0
8.7%
0-1
8.3%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
8.0%
2-0
6.6%
0-2
6.1%
Crawley Town goals ↓
Northampton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
8.3%
6.1%
2.5%
0.8%
1
8.7%
14%
8.0%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.6%
8.3%
5.2%
2.2%
0.7%
3
2.9%
3.6%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crawley Town goals (down), columns = Northampton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Birmingham
2.41
Wrexham
2.00
Stockport
1.89
Charlton
1.85
Wycombe
1.83
Leyton Orient
1.70
Reading
1.63
Bolton
1.48
Blackpool
1.46
Huddersfield
1.39
Lincoln
1.33
Barnsley
1.33
Rotherham
1.28
Stevenage
1.24
Wigan
1.22
Exeter
1.22
Mansfield
1.17
Northampton
1.11
Peterboro
1.11
Burton
1.02
Crawley Town
1.00
Bristol Rvs
0.93
Cambridge
0.83
Shrewsbury
0.72
Crawley Town is 0.11 points worse than Northampton in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Birmingham
1.83
Leyton Orient
1.57
Blackpool
1.57
Stockport
1.57
Wycombe
1.52
Barnsley
1.50
Reading
1.48
Peterboro
1.48
Bolton
1.46
Charlton
1.46
Wrexham
1.46
Lincoln
1.39
Mansfield
1.30
Huddersfield
1.26
Crawley Town
1.24
Rotherham
1.17
Exeter
1.07
Burton
1.07
Northampton
1.04
Cambridge
0.98
Bristol Rvs
0.96
Stevenage
0.91
Shrewsbury
0.89
Wigan
0.87
Crawley Town is 0.20 goals better than Northampton in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.04).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Birmingham
0.67
Wrexham
0.74
Wigan
0.91
Stockport
0.91
Charlton
0.93
Wycombe
0.98
Leyton Orient
1.04
Stevenage
1.09
Huddersfield
1.20
Lincoln
1.22
Reading
1.24
Rotherham
1.28
Blackpool
1.30
Exeter
1.41
Northampton
1.43
Burton
1.43
Bolton
1.52
Cambridge
1.59
Barnsley
1.59
Mansfield
1.59
Bristol Rvs
1.65
Shrewsbury
1.72
Peterboro
1.76
Crawley Town
1.80
Crawley Town is 0.37 goals worse than Northampton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Birmingham
67%
Bolton
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Huddersfield
54%
Peterboro
54%
Stockport
53%
Leyton Orient
52%
Reading
52%
Barnsley
51%
Exeter
51%
Wycombe
50%
Blackpool
50%
Charlton
50%
Mansfield
49%
Wigan
48%
Stevenage
47%
Wrexham
47%
Rotherham
47%
Lincoln
45%
Northampton
43%
Cambridge
43%
Burton
42%
Shrewsbury
42%
Crawley Town is 12.8 percentage points better than Northampton in terms of average possession (56% vs 43%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Crawley Town
For 3.4 · Against 4.5 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.9 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Northampton
For 4.0 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 10.8 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Crawley Town
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.3
10.1
3.8
4.3
3.4
22.2
22.8
21.5
vs Stronger (13)
9.8
10.8
8.8
3.2
3.3
3.0
23.2
25.0
21.3
vs Similar (36)
10.4
10.2
10.6
4.1
4.6
3.5
21.7
22.1
21.4
vs Weaker (1)
10.0
-
10.0
3.0
-
3.0
25.0
-
25.0
% over line
54%
61%
48%
54%
64%
44%
59%
65%
52%
% under line
46%
39%
52%
46%
36%
56%
41%
35%
48%
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Northampton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.3
9.0
3.4
3.2
3.7
22.4
22.0
22.8
vs Stronger (11)
7.5
6.8
8.2
4.0
3.7
4.4
20.6
21.2
20.0
vs Similar (38)
9.5
9.8
9.2
3.3
3.2
3.5
23.0
22.4
23.5
vs Weaker (1)
12.0
12.0
-
0.0
0.0
-
18.0
18.0
-
% over line
50%
54%
46%
44%
42%
46%
56%
50%
62%
% under line
50%
46%
54%
56%
58%
54%
44%
50%
38%
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.3
Huddersfield
11.1
Crawley Town
10.5
Reading
10.3
Peterboro
10.3
Stevenage
10.3
Shrewsbury
10.1
Bolton
10.0
Rotherham
10.0
Exeter
10.0
Blackpool
10.0
Bristol Rvs
9.8
Leyton Orient
9.8
Burton
9.6
Charlton
9.6
Lincoln
9.5
Mansfield
9.4
Cambridge
9.3
Birmingham
9.3
Wrexham
9.3
Wycombe
9.2
Wigan
9.2
Northampton
9.0
Stockport
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bolton
5.1
Lincoln
4.3
Stevenage
4.3
Exeter
4.2
Stockport
4.2
Cambridge
4.1
Crawley Town
4.1
Wigan
4.0
Charlton
4.0
Mansfield
3.9
Birmingham
3.9
Huddersfield
3.8
Burton
3.8
Shrewsbury
3.8
Barnsley
3.7
Bristol Rvs
3.7
Wycombe
3.6
Wrexham
3.6
Peterboro
3.6
Northampton
3.5
Blackpool
3.5
Leyton Orient
3.4
Reading
3.3
Rotherham
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bolton
25.3
Stevenage
25.1
Exeter
25.0
Stockport
24.9
Wycombe
24.6
Birmingham
24.6
Wigan
24.5
Lincoln
24.4
Cambridge
24.3
Mansfield
23.6
Shrewsbury
23.5
Charlton
23.4
Rotherham
23.3
Reading
22.9
Blackpool
22.8
Peterboro
22.8
Huddersfield
22.6
Bristol Rvs
22.4
Northampton
22.2
Crawley Town
21.8
Burton
21.6
Wrexham
21.4
Leyton Orient
21.2
Barnsley
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
51.3%
Under 9.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
55.6%
Under 3.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
63.8%
Under 21.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Crawley Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.00
0.73
0.87
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.62
0.25
0.75
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.82
1.14
0.91
0.91
0.73
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Northampton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.47
0.73
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.46
0.45
0.45
0.54
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Crawley Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crawley Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crawley Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Crawley Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.97
0.60
0.67
0.80
1.27
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.88
0.25
0.50
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.73
1.00
0.73
0.73
0.73
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Northampton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.70
0.47
0.67
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.83
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.67
0.64
0.64
0.46
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Crawley Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crawley Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crawley Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Crawley Town · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Danilo Orsi-Dadomo33%
Pemi Aderoju33%
Gianmarco Di Biase33%
Louie Watson25%
Priestley Farquharson0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Klaudio Krasniqi0%
Charlie Barker0%
Jude Arthurs0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
Johnny Russell0%
Osman Kamara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Louie Watson50%
Charlie Barker50%
Jude Arthurs50%
Johnny Russell50%
Priestley Farquharson33%
Pemi Aderoju33%
Klaudio Krasniqi25%
Danilo Orsi-Dadomo0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
Osman Kamara0%
Gianmarco Di Biase0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Priestley Farquharson0%
Danilo Orsi-Dadomo0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Louie Watson0%
Klaudio Krasniqi0%
Charlie Barker0%
Jude Arthurs0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
Johnny Russell0%
Osman Kamara0%
Pemi Aderoju0%
Gianmarco Di Biase0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Priestley Farquharson0%
Danilo Orsi-Dadomo0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Louie Watson0%
Klaudio Krasniqi0%
Charlie Barker0%
Jude Arthurs0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
Johnny Russell0%
Osman Kamara0%
Pemi Aderoju0%
Gianmarco Di Biase0%
Northampton · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Elliott Moore0%
Sam Hoskins0%
Lee Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
James Maxwell0%
Zach Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
Matty Warhurst0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lee Evans33%
James Maxwell33%
Tyrese Fornah33%
Elliott Moore0%
Sam Hoskins0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Zach Jeacock0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Elliott Moore0%
Sam Hoskins0%
Lee Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
James Maxwell0%
Zach Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sam Hoskins33%
Elliott Moore0%
Lee Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
James Maxwell0%
Zach Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (26)
€93m
WRE (32)
€77m
CHA (29)
€31m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
Crawley Town and Northampton have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (9)
€46m
CHA (13)
€18m
WRE (9)
€15m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
Crawley Town and Northampton have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
BIR (5)
€12m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
Crawley Town and Northampton have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
BIR (12)
€35m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
EXE (5)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
Crawley Town's defence is €1m less valuable than Northampton's (€1m vs €2m).
England: League One 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Birmingham
Wrexham
Stockport
Charlton
Wycombe
Leyton Orient
Reading
Bolton
Blackpool
Huddersfield
Lincoln
Barnsley
Rotherham
Stevenage
Wigan
Exeter
Mansfield
Peterboro
Burton
Bristol Rvs
Cambridge
Shrewsbury