This opponent (Cittadella) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.47
0.80
1.47
0.80
1.47
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.67
0.71
1.14
0.60
2.40
vs Similar (18)
0.89
1.33
0.88
1.75
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Cremonese) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.6%
Under 1.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.2%
@ 1.78-10.7%
Under 2.5
57.8%
@ 2.00+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.4%
Under 3.5
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.2%
No
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.3%
1-1
13.1%
2-0
11.2%
0-0
10.6%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
6.5%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
4.9%
Cremonese goals ↓
Cittadella goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.5%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
4.9%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.2%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
3
5.8%
4.7%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.2%
1.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cremonese goals (down), columns = Cittadella goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sassuolo
2.16
Pisa
1.95
Spezia
1.74
Cremonese
1.62
Juve Stabia
1.49
Catanzaro
1.37
Cesena
1.36
Palermo
1.33
Bari
1.26
Sudtirol
1.21
Modena
1.18
Carrarese
1.18
Reggiana
1.16
Mantova
1.16
Brescia
1.13
Frosinone
1.13
Sampdoria
1.13
Salernitana
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Cosenza
0.89
Cremonese is 0.57 points better than Cittadella in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.05).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sassuolo
2.05
Cremonese
1.64
Pisa
1.63
Spezia
1.55
Palermo
1.33
Sudtirol
1.32
Catanzaro
1.29
Modena
1.26
Mantova
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Brescia
1.11
Reggiana
1.11
Juve Stabia
1.10
Bari
1.08
Carrarese
1.03
Sampdoria
1.03
Frosinone
0.97
Salernitana
0.95
Cosenza
0.84
Cittadella
0.82
Cremonese is 0.83 goals better than Cittadella in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 0.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spezia
0.88
Pisa
0.97
Sassuolo
1.00
Bari
1.05
Juve Stabia
1.10
Palermo
1.13
Cremonese
1.14
Catanzaro
1.20
Cesena
1.23
Salernitana
1.26
Sampdoria
1.26
Brescia
1.26
Carrarese
1.29
Frosinone
1.32
Modena
1.32
Reggiana
1.37
Cittadella
1.42
Cosenza
1.47
Mantova
1.47
Sudtirol
1.50
Cremonese is 0.28 goals better than Cittadella in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Mantova
62%
Cremonese
60%
Catanzaro
55%
Sassuolo
52%
Salernitana
52%
Juve Stabia
52%
Bari
51%
Spezia
50%
Palermo
49%
Carrarese
49%
Cosenza
49%
Cesena
49%
Modena
48%
Sampdoria
48%
Frosinone
47%
Brescia
46%
Pisa
46%
Cittadella
45%
Reggiana
44%
Sudtirol
44%
Cremonese is 14.7 percentage points better than Cittadella in terms of average possession (60% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cremonese
For 6.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.6 · Against 13.2 · Total 31.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cittadella
For 3.2 · Against 5.2 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.3 · Against 14.0 · Total 30.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cremonese
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.6
9.0
5.1
4.5
5.7
29.0
27.9
30.0
vs Stronger (1)
8.0
8.0
-
6.0
6.0
-
27.0
27.0
-
vs Similar (35)
8.9
9.1
8.8
4.8
4.0
5.5
29.3
29.1
29.4
vs Weaker (14)
10.4
10.8
10.0
5.9
5.2
6.7
28.4
25.9
31.7
% over line
42%
50%
35%
74%
67%
81%
92%
88%
96%
% under line
58%
50%
65%
26%
33%
19%
8%
12%
4%
This opponent (Cittadella) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
7.8
10.3
5.1
4.9
5.2
31.1
32.4
29.9
vs Stronger (20)
8.8
8.0
9.9
5.0
5.2
4.7
28.8
30.7
26.4
vs Similar (29)
9.3
7.5
10.7
5.2
4.7
5.6
32.9
33.8
32.2
vs Weaker (1)
7.0
-
7.0
5.0
-
5.0
25.0
-
25.0
% over line
42%
21%
62%
86%
88%
85%
94%
100%
88%
% under line
58%
79%
38%
14%
12%
15%
6%
0%
12%
This opponent (Cremonese) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Palermo
10.8
Juve Stabia
10.3
Cosenza
10.3
Spezia
9.8
Brescia
9.6
Frosinone
9.5
Bari
9.3
Cremonese
9.3
Salernitana
9.2
Modena
9.2
Carrarese
9.1
Cittadella
9.1
Cesena
9.0
Sudtirol
9.0
Sampdoria
9.0
Sassuolo
9.0
Catanzaro
8.9
Mantova
8.7
Reggiana
8.7
Pisa
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cosenza
6.2
Juve Stabia
6.1
Spezia
6.1
Reggiana
5.8
Mantova
5.7
Sampdoria
5.5
Bari
5.4
Modena
5.3
Cremonese
5.2
Pisa
5.2
Cittadella
5.1
Brescia
5.0
Carrarese
5.0
Sudtirol
4.9
Catanzaro
4.9
Cesena
4.9
Frosinone
4.9
Palermo
4.7
Salernitana
4.7
Sassuolo
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
35.2
Spezia
34.2
Juve Stabia
33.8
Cittadella
31.1
Reggiana
31.1
Sudtirol
30.6
Bari
30.2
Sampdoria
29.6
Cesena
29.3
Brescia
29.2
Cosenza
29.2
Cremonese
29.0
Pisa
28.9
Palermo
28.8
Frosinone
28.6
Catanzaro
28.6
Modena
28.6
Carrarese
28.4
Salernitana
27.3
Sassuolo
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.6%
Under 9.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
71.5%
Under 3.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
95.3%
Under 21.5
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cremonese
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.64
0.55
0.64
0.91
0.64
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.75
0.75
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.27
0.60
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.75
0.29
0.71
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.61
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Cremonese) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cremonese over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cremonese over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cremonese over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cremonese
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
0.87
0.53
1.07
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.41
0.91
0.45
1.27
0.36
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.50
0.75
0.75
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.53
0.87
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.92
0.43
0.43
0.40
1.60
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.72
0.62
1.25
0.40
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Cremonese) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cremonese over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cremonese over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cremonese over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cremonese
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Franco Vázquez27%
Michele Collocolo22%
Federico Bonazzoli21%
Manuel De Luca21%
Mattia Valoti20%
Dennis Johnsen19%
Paulo Azzi15%
Jari Vandeputte12%
Cristian Buonaiuto11%
Leonardo Sernicola10%
Tommaso Barbieri8%
Marco Nasti7%
Charles Pickel6%
Michele Castagnetti6%
Federico Ceccherini5%
Luca Ravanelli3%
Luca Zanimacchia3%
Valentin Antov3%
Matteo Bianchetti3%
Frank Tsadjout0%
Andrea Fulignati0%
Žan Majer0%
Francesco Gelli0%
Luka Lochoshvili0%
Giacomo Quagliata0%
Lorenzo Moretti0%
Tommaso Milanese0%
Francesco Folino0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marco Nasti34%
Tommaso Barbieri30%
Valentin Antov29%
Luka Lochoshvili25%
Franco Vázquez24%
Federico Ceccherini24%
Michele Collocolo22%
Matteo Bianchetti21%
Charles Pickel21%
Mattia Valoti20%
Paulo Azzi20%
Žan Majer18%
Michele Castagnetti17%
Dennis Johnsen16%
Lorenzo Moretti12%
Jari Vandeputte12%
Leonardo Sernicola10%
Luca Ravanelli10%
Luca Zanimacchia9%
Francesco Folino9%
Giacomo Quagliata8%
Manuel De Luca8%
Federico Bonazzoli7%
Frank Tsadjout0%
Cristian Buonaiuto0%
Andrea Fulignati0%
Francesco Gelli0%
Tommaso Milanese0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jari Vandeputte27%
Dennis Johnsen16%
Paulo Azzi15%
Tommaso Barbieri14%
Franco Vázquez12%
Luca Zanimacchia12%
Cristian Buonaiuto11%
Michele Castagnetti11%
Giacomo Quagliata8%
Marco Nasti7%
Mattia Valoti7%
Michele Collocolo6%
Manuel De Luca5%
Leonardo Sernicola5%
Federico Ceccherini5%
Žan Majer5%
Federico Bonazzoli3%
Luca Ravanelli3%
Matteo Bianchetti3%
Frank Tsadjout0%
Valentin Antov0%
Andrea Fulignati0%
Francesco Gelli0%
Charles Pickel0%
Luka Lochoshvili0%
Lorenzo Moretti0%
Tommaso Milanese0%
Francesco Folino0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Franco Vázquez33%
Manuel De Luca26%
Cristian Buonaiuto22%
Paulo Azzi20%
Federico Bonazzoli17%
Jari Vandeputte7%
Marco Nasti7%
Michele Collocolo6%
Dennis Johnsen5%
Charles Pickel3%
Michele Castagnetti3%
Frank Tsadjout0%
Valentin Antov0%
Federico Ceccherini0%
Leonardo Sernicola0%
Andrea Fulignati0%
Mattia Valoti0%
Matteo Bianchetti0%
Luca Ravanelli0%
Žan Majer0%
Francesco Gelli0%
Luca Zanimacchia0%
Luka Lochoshvili0%
Tommaso Barbieri0%
Giacomo Quagliata0%
Lorenzo Moretti0%
Tommaso Milanese0%
Francesco Folino0%
Cittadella
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luca Pandolfi24%
Orji Okwonkwo19%
Alessio Vita12%
Simone Rabbi11%
Claudio Cassano10%
Simone Tronchin9%
Riccardo Palmieri8%
Lorenzo Carissoni6%
Mario Ravasio5%
Federico Casolari4%
Jacopo Desogus4%
Edoardo Masciangelo3%
Francesco Amatucci3%
Luca Maniero0%
Simone Branca0%
Davide Diaw0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Stefano Negro0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Alessandro Salvi0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Andrea Tessiore0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Andrea Magrassi0%
Stefano Piccinini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco D'Alessio0%
Andrea Cecchetto0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefano Piccinini60%
Riccardo Palmieri38%
Federico Casolari35%
Simone Branca32%
Elio Capradossi31%
Matteo Angeli29%
Andrea Cecchetto25%
Alessandro Salvi24%
Simone Tronchin22%
Nicola Pavan21%
Francesco Amatucci21%
Simone Rabbi19%
Luca Pandolfi18%
Alessio Rizza17%
Alessio Vita15%
Stefano Negro14%
Mario Ravasio14%
Lorenzo Carissoni14%
Edoardo Masciangelo14%
Jacopo Desogus12%
Andrea Tessiore12%
Andrea Magrassi11%
Luca Maniero10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Francesco D'Alessio8%
Orji Okwonkwo6%
Elhan Kastrati3%
Davide Diaw0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrea Magrassi11%
Mario Ravasio10%
Simone Tronchin9%
Edoardo Masciangelo8%
Francesco D'Alessio8%
Orji Okwonkwo6%
Alessandro Salvi6%
Simone Rabbi6%
Jacopo Desogus4%
Andrea Tessiore4%
Alessio Vita3%
Lorenzo Carissoni3%
Luca Maniero0%
Simone Branca0%
Davide Diaw0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Stefano Negro0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Riccardo Palmieri0%
Luca Pandolfi0%
Stefano Piccinini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco Amatucci0%
Federico Casolari0%
Claudio Cassano0%
Andrea Cecchetto0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luca Pandolfi33%
Orji Okwonkwo19%
Mario Ravasio14%
Simone Rabbi8%
Riccardo Palmieri8%
Alessandro Salvi6%
Alessio Vita6%
Jacopo Desogus4%
Francesco Amatucci3%
Luca Maniero0%
Simone Branca0%
Davide Diaw0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Stefano Negro0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Edoardo Masciangelo0%
Andrea Tessiore0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Andrea Magrassi0%
Stefano Piccinini0%
Simone Tronchin0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco D'Alessio0%
Federico Casolari0%
Claudio Cassano0%
Andrea Cecchetto0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →