PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal Result & Analysis

Date: 24/05/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 1-2
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
Vs
17%
28%
55%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arsenal
Arsenal
England: Premier League
Referee: F Hallam
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Crystal Palace a 17% win probability against Arsenal in the England: Premier League on 2026-05-24, with 28% for the draw and 55% for Arsenal. The model estimates around 2.4 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 0-1 the most likely scoreline (13.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (79%).

Results analysis

Crystal Palace finished 1-2 against Arsenal (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 17% home win, 28% draw and 55% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (79%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Crystal Palace win✗ Miss
17.5%
Avg Implied 23.7% · @ 3.97
Edge
-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.66
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal win✓ Hit
55.0%
Avg Implied 50.6% · @ 1.86
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W12L00D13L31W03L21W22D03L22DH·NEW12/04A·FIO16/04H·WES20/04A·LIV25/04A·SHA30/04A·BOU03/05H·SHA07/05H·EVE10/05A·MAN13/05A·BRE17/05
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.401.200.931.201.87
vs Stronger (9)1.221.670.751.251.602.00
vs Similar (20)1.201.351.400.901.001.80
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArsenalArsenal

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L00D12L10W11D30W10W10W10WA·SPO07/04H·BOU11/04H·SPO15/04A·MAN19/04H·NEW25/04A·ATL29/04H·FUL02/05H·ATL05/05A·WES10/05H·BUR18/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.770.731.810.691.710.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.000.570.330.001.501.00
vs Weaker (23)2.000.782.150.851.800.70
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Crystal Palace) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%11%020%127%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.6%
Under 1.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.2%
@ 1.72-12.5%
Under 2.5
57.8%
@ 2.07+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.4%
Under 3.5
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.4%
No
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
13.6%
1-1
12.8%
0-2
11.7%
0-0
10.5%
1-2 ✓
9.2%
1-0
6.2%
0-3
6.2%
1-3
4.8%
Crystal Palace goals ↓
Arsenal goals →
01234
011%14%12%6.2%2.4%
16.2%13%9.2%4.8%1.9%
22.9%4.6%3.6%1.9%0.8%
30.8%1.2%1.0%0.5%0.2%
40.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crystal Palace goals (down), columns = Arsenal goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Newcastle
1.29
Everton
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
West Ham
1.03
Burnley
0.58
Wolves
0.53
Crystal Palace is 1.05 points worse than Arsenal in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 2.24).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Tottenham
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
West Ham
1.21
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Burnley
1.00
Wolves
0.71
Crystal Palace is 0.79 goals worse than Arsenal in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.87).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Manchester United
1.32
Everton
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
West Ham
1.71
Wolves
1.79
Burnley
1.97
Crystal Palace is 0.63 goals worse than Arsenal in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 0.71).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
West Ham
42%
Burnley
42%
Crystal Palace is 10.4 percentage points worse than Arsenal in terms of average possession (45% vs 56%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace

For 3.1 · Against 7.4 · Total 10.5

🚩 Corners

15049495101517113854616241313156814131076A·BREA·MANH·EVEH·SHAA·BOUA·SHAA·LIVH·WESA·FIOH·NEW
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.4

🟨 Cards

803122122331213534221254383A·BREA·MANH·EVEH·SHAA·BOUA·SHAA·LIVH·WESA·FIOH·NEW
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 10.5 · Total 20.8

⚠️ Fouls

290577105138101110137101013121414171212171818212020252829A·BREA·MANH·EVEH·SHAA·BOUA·SHAA·LIVH·WESA·FIOH·NEW
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ArsenalArsenal

For 4.9 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.5

🚩 Corners

1303334523416725883101436777791311117H·BURA·WESH·ATLH·FULA·ATLH·NEWA·MANH·SPOH·BOUA·SPO
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.0

🟨 Cards

7013431211222211314731144141H·BURA·WESH·ATLH·FULA·ATLH·NEWA·MANH·SPOH·BOUA·SPO
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 11.7 · Total 21.8

⚠️ Fouls

3007161214101371211713101257111218101123262319182317183021H·BURA·WESH·ATLH·FULA·ATLH·NEWA·MANH·SPOH·BOUA·SPO
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.18.69.53.83.74.020.921.620.2
vs Stronger (15)8.46.410.73.63.53.719.918.921.1
vs Similar (31)9.59.79.43.83.54.121.122.419.9
vs Weaker (4)7.810.07.04.87.04.022.832.019.7
% over line44%42%46%62%54%69%40%50%31%
% under line56%58%54%38%46%31%60%50%69%
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArsenalArsenal

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.09.18.93.22.83.721.822.221.3
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (12)8.88.09.83.03.12.822.023.619.8
vs Weaker (38)9.19.58.73.32.73.921.721.721.7
% over line42%42%42%46%42%50%50%54%46%
% under line58%58%58%54%58%50%50%46%54%
This opponent (Crystal Palace) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.2
Bournemouth
10.6
Fulham
10.4
Liverpool
10.4
West Ham
10.3
Brentford
10.1
Manchester City
10.0
Nottingham Forest
9.9
Chelsea
9.9
Tottenham
9.9
Manchester United
9.8
Everton
9.7
Brighton
9.6
Aston Villa
9.5
Burnley
9.4
Leeds
9.3
Wolves
9.3
Crystal Palace
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Sunderland
8.9

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Chelsea
4.6
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Manchester United
4.3
Brighton
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Newcastle
4.0
Brentford
3.9
Crystal Palace
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Manchester City
3.8
Wolves
3.8
West Ham
3.7
Fulham
3.6
Everton
3.6
Liverpool
3.4
Nottingham Forest
3.4
Leeds
3.3
Arsenal
3.2
Burnley
3.2

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Aston Villa
24.0
Wolves
24.0
Nottingham Forest
23.5
Bournemouth
23.4
Chelsea
23.2
Tottenham
22.6
Sunderland
22.3
West Ham
22.0
Manchester United
21.9
Brighton
21.9
Arsenal
21.8
Newcastle
21.7
Everton
21.4
Leeds
21.3
Crystal Palace
20.9
Manchester City
20.7
Liverpool
20.7
Burnley
20.6
Fulham
20.6
Brentford
19.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.7%
Under 9.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.5%
Under 3.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
41.4%
Under 21.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (26)
€1280m
MC (27)
€1243m
CHE (29)
€1114m
LIV (28)
€940m
MU (29)
€764m
TOT (32)
€713m
NEW (29)
€696m
BOU (31)
€658m
NFO (32)
€621m
BHA (32)
€592m
AVL (28)
€583m
CRY (30)
€553m
BRE (29)
€482m
WHU (34)
€449m
EVE (26)
€443m
SUN (31)
€415m
LEE (28)
€373m
FUL (25)
€356m
WOL (29)
€311m
BUR (33)
€233m
Crystal Palace's squad is €728m less valuable than Arsenal's (€553m vs €1280m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (11)
€555m
MC (7)
€542m
LIV (8)
€490m
CHE (8)
€418m
MU (10)
€362m
BOU (12)
€353m
NFO (12)
€301m
AVL (11)
€270m
CRY (12)
€255m
TOT (11)
€250m
NEW (8)
€249m
BRE (9)
€208m
EVE (8)
€194m
BHA (11)
€191m
FUL (11)
€188m
WHU (12)
€174m
SUN (13)
€168m
LEE (10)
€142m
BUR (14)
€100m
WOL (10)
€86m
Crystal Palace's attack is €300m less valuable than Arsenal's (€255m vs €555m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (5)
€267m
NEW (6)
€249m
ARS (4)
€225m
LIV (6)
€201m
TOT (7)
€177m
BHA (8)
€176m
AVL (7)
€168m
MC (6)
€166m
EVE (7)
€126m
NFO (4)
€117m
WHU (8)
€112m
WOL (5)
€111m
SUN (5)
€108m
BOU (5)
€106m
MU (4)
€102m
LEE (6)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
BRE (7)
€89m
BUR (5)
€48m
FUL (4)
€38m
Crystal Palace's midfield is €132m less valuable than Arsenal's (€93m vs €225m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (14)
€535m
ARS (11)
€500m
CHE (16)
€430m
MU (15)
€300m
TOT (14)
€286m
LIV (14)
€248m
BHA (13)
€225m
CRY (13)
€205m
NFO (16)
€203m
BOU (14)
€199m
NEW (15)
€198m
BRE (13)
€186m
WHU (14)
€164m
AVL (10)
€146m
SUN (13)
€140m
LEE (12)
€134m
FUL (10)
€131m
EVE (11)
€123m
WOL (14)
€115m
BUR (14)
€85m
Crystal Palace's defence is €296m less valuable than Arsenal's (€205m vs €500m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal · H/A from CRY
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/25AArsenal Vs CRY1-0
23/04/25AArsenal Vs CRY2-2
21/12/24HCRY Vs Arsenal1-5
20/01/24AArsenal Vs CRY5-0
21/08/23HCRY Vs Arsenal0-1
19/03/23AArsenal Vs CRY4-1
05/08/22HCRY Vs Arsenal0-2
04/04/22HCRY Vs Arsenal3-0

Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/26ABrentford Vs CRY2-2
13/05/26AManchester City Vs CRY3-0
10/05/26HCRY Vs Everton2-2
07/05/26HCRY Vs Shakhtar Donetsk2-1
03/05/26ABournemouth Vs CRY3-0
30/04/26AShakhtar Donetsk Vs CRY1-3
25/04/26ALiverpool Vs CRY3-1
20/04/26HCRY Vs West Ham0-0
16/04/26AFiorentina Vs CRY2-1
12/04/26HCRY Vs Newcastle2-1

ArsenalArsenal

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/05/26HARS Vs Burnley1-0
10/05/26AWest Ham Vs ARS0-1
05/05/26HARS Vs Atletico Madrid1-0
02/05/26HARS Vs Fulham3-0
29/04/26AAtletico Madrid Vs ARS1-1
25/04/26HARS Vs Newcastle1-0
19/04/26AManchester City Vs ARS2-1
15/04/26HARS Vs Sporting CP0-0
11/04/26HARS Vs Bournemouth1-2
07/04/26ASporting CP Vs ARS0-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
England: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLD1.42
HomeWWDWD1.42
AwayLWLLD1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%33%42%
AVG goals2.482.252.69
Over 1.5 %74%62%85%
Over 2.5 %58%50%65%
Over 3.5 %22%25%19%
Scored1.281.211.35
Conceded1.201.041.35
BTTS52%46%58%
Clean Sheet34%42%27%
Corners9.068.589.50
Cards3.843.674.00
Arsenal
Arsenal
England: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW2.30
HomeDWWWW2.54
AwayDWLDW2.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %70%81%58%
AVG goals2.582.692.46
Over 1.5 %74%77%71%
Over 2.5 %50%54%46%
Over 3.5 %26%27%25%
Scored1.942.151.71
Conceded0.640.540.75
BTTS44%38%50%
Clean Sheet54%62%46%
Corners9.009.088.92
Cards3.222.813.67

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ArsenalArsenal3885
68%
2.2
7127+44
2.6
71%
53%
24%
9.1
42%
3.2
47%
21.3
47%
1280
5552255001.90.7
56%
2Manchester CityManchester City3878
61%
2.1
7735+42
2.9
87%
63%
21%
10.3
58%
3.9
63%
20.9
42%
1243
5421665352.00.9
60%
3Manchester UnitedManchester United3871
53%
1.9
6950+19
3.1
84%
63%
37%
9.7
53%
3.8
58%
21.2
47%
764
3621023001.81.3
52%
4Aston VillaAston Villa3865
50%
1.7
5649+7
2.8
74%
53%
29%
10.2
68%
3.9
61%
23.0
63%
583
2701681461.51.3
53%
5LiverpoolLiverpool3860
45%
1.6
6353+10
3.1
84%
61%
29%
10.5
55%
3.6
50%
20.7
37%
940
4902012481.71.4
59%
6BournemouthBournemouth3857
34%
1.5
5854+4
2.9
76%
55%
42%
10.9
63%
4.3
63%
22.5
53%
658
3531061991.51.4
50%
7SunderlandSunderland3854
37%
1.4
4248-6
2.4
71%
45%
18%
9.0
45%
4.1
55%
22.1
58%
415
1681081401.11.3
45%
8BrightonBrighton3853
37%
1.4
5246+6
2.6
82%
50%
18%
9.7
58%
4.3
63%
22.0
55%
592
1911762251.41.2
53%
9BrentfordBrentford3853
37%
1.4
5552+3
2.8
82%
53%
37%
10.2
63%
3.7
53%
19.6
34%
482
208891861.41.4
47%
10ChelseaChelsea3852
37%
1.4
5852+6
2.9
87%
66%
32%
10.4
68%
4.7
71%
23.4
68%
1114
4182674301.51.4
57%
11FulhamFulham3852
39%
1.4
4751-4
2.6
71%
50%
24%
10.5
66%
3.8
58%
20.8
39%
356
188381311.21.3
51%
12NewcastleNewcastle3849
37%
1.3
5355-2
2.8
76%
63%
34%
11.0
61%
4.2
61%
22.1
53%
696
2492491981.41.4
52%
13EvertonEverton3849
34%
1.3
4750-3
2.6
76%
45%
21%
9.4
42%
3.7
47%
21.7
58%
443
1941261231.21.3
44%
14LeedsLeeds3847
29%
1.2
4956-7
2.8
74%
55%
37%
9.5
53%
3.4
42%
21.7
47%
373
142981341.31.5
46%
15Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace3845
29%
1.2
4151-10
2.4
71%
55%
21%
9.4
47%
3.7
63%
20.2
37%
553
255932051.11.3
45%
16Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest3844
29%
1.2
4851-3
2.6
82%
53%
26%
10.1
58%
3.3
42%
22.2
53%
621
3011172031.31.3
46%
17TottenhamTottenham3841
26%
1.1
4857-9
2.8
82%
63%
26%
10.2
50%
4.7
71%
22.3
58%
713
2501772861.31.5
50%
18West HamWest Ham3839
26%
1.0
4665-19
2.9
87%
61%
29%
11.0
66%
3.8
55%
21.7
47%
449
1741121641.21.7
42%
19BurnleyBurnley3822
11%
0.6
3875-37
3.0
84%
50%
39%
9.6
53%
2.9
39%
19.5
37%
233
10048851.02.0
42%
20WolvesWolves3820
8%
0.5
2768-41
2.5
79%
45%
24%
9.4
58%
3.8
58%
23.8
66%
311
861111150.71.8
-
England: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →

← all matches