The contest between CSA Steaua București and CSM Reșița is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the margins are slim. The odds are 41% for a Steaua victory, 28% for a draw and 30% for a Reșița win, so the most likely outcome is a home win. The expected total is 2.7 goals, with the single most probable scoreline being 1-1 at 13.4%. Steaua, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.43 goals scored and 0.79 conceded, while Reșița, on the road, averages 1.58 scored and 1.25 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 76% and Under 3.5 at 71.9%. In recent form, Steaua are coming off a defeat (last five LDDLW) and Reșița are on a winning streak (WLDWW). All figures are presented exactly as supplied.
Results analysis
The upset came early as CSA Steaua București, coming off a defeat, failed to secure the win the model had favoured. The final score was 0-2, giving CSM Reșița an away victory. The model had picked a home win with a 41% probability, but that call was wrong. The model’s selections Over 1.5 and Under 3.5 both hit, with probabilities of 76% and 71.9% respectively. The predicted most likely total of 2 goals (26% chance) was not reached. Reșița’s recent form of WLDWW and a win over Steaua highlighted their momentum, while Steaua’s LDDLW streak showed the home side struggled to convert expectations into results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
CSA Steaua Bucureşti win✗ Miss
41.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa win✓ Hit
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.67
1.43
0.79
1.38
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.23
0.77
1.43
0.79
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
0.00
-
-
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Reşiţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSM Reşiţa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.17
1.06
1.25
1.64
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.30
1.30
1.07
1.33
1.58
1.25
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (CSA Steaua Bucureşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.0%
Under 1.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.1%
Under 2.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.1%
Under 3.5
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.3%
No
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
2-1
8.9%
1-0
8.8%
0-0
8.1%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.3%
0-1
7.2%
2-2
5.4%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti goals ↓
CSM Reşiţa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
7.2%
5.1%
2.1%
0.6%
1
8.8%
13%
7.5%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.3%
8.9%
5.4%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.5%
4.3%
2.6%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.3%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSA Steaua Bucureşti goals (down), columns = CSM Reşiţa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Csikszereda
1.94
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.93
Arges Pitesti
1.93
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.81
FC Voluntari
1.67
Metaloglobus
1.63
Slatina
1.63
CSM Reşiţa
1.60
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.46
U Craiova 1948
1.38
Metalul Buzău
1.38
Concordia
1.33
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.31
Chindia Targoviste
1.29
Bihor Oradea
1.22
CS Afumati
1.19
Unirea Ungheni
1.19
Dumbrăviţa
0.89
Focşani
0.85
CS Mioveni
0.65
Muscelul Câmpulung Elite
0.54
ACS Sirineasa
0.11
CSA Steaua Bucureşti is 0.33 points better than CSM Reşiţa in terms of average points per game (1.93 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Slatina
1.74
Concordia
1.67
Csikszereda
1.58
Metaloglobus
1.47
CSM Reşiţa
1.43
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.42
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.40
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.38
Chindia Targoviste
1.32
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.31
Arges Pitesti
1.30
FC Voluntari
1.27
Bihor Oradea
1.22
Metalul Buzău
1.19
U Craiova 1948
1.15
CS Afumati
1.00
Unirea Ungheni
0.88
Dumbrăviţa
0.86
Focşani
0.65
Muscelul Câmpulung Elite
0.62
CS Mioveni
0.47
ACS Sirineasa
0.33
CSA Steaua Bucureşti is 0.03 goals worse than CSM Reşiţa in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arges Pitesti
0.53
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.73
FC Voluntari
0.77
Corvinul Hunedoara
0.85
Slatina
0.89
Csikszereda
1.03
CSM Reşiţa
1.10
Metalul Buzău
1.15
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.15
Focşani
1.15
Chindia Targoviste
1.18
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.19
Metaloglobus
1.20
U Craiova 1948
1.23
Dumbrăviţa
1.25
Unirea Ungheni
1.27
Bihor Oradea
1.33
CS Afumati
1.46
Concordia
1.48
CS Mioveni
2.29
Muscelul Câmpulung Elite
2.31
ACS Sirineasa
3.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti is 0.37 goals better than CSM Reşiţa in terms of goals conceded per game (0.73 vs 1.10).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.33
0.71
0.43
0.56
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.38
0.71
0.43
0.42
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Reşiţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSM Reşiţa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.56
0.62
0.79
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.70
0.53
0.67
0.83
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (CSA Steaua Bucureşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
0.71
0.36
0.81
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.38
0.71
0.36
0.58
0.42
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.00
-
-
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Reşiţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSM Reşiţa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.50
0.62
0.86
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.59
0.53
0.67
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
-
-
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (CSA Steaua Bucureşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (26)
€13m
CH (24)
€7m
CSI (25)
€6m
FV (24)
€6m
CON (26)
€5m
BO (23)
€4m
CT (21)
€3m
CSB (24)
€3m
SLA (23)
€3m
CR (20)
€3m
MB (19)
€3m
VŞ (19)
€2m
MET (15)
€1m
DUM (15)
€1m
CA (14)
€1m
CSA Steaua Bucureşti and CSM Reşiţa have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (11)
€4m
CH (12)
€3m
CSI (12)
€2m
FV (11)
€2m
CON (11)
€2m
CT (8)
€2m
SLA (10)
€1m
MB (6)
€1m
CSB (8)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
CR (9)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
MET (5)
€1m
CA (6)
€1m
DUM (3)
€0m
CSA Steaua Bucureşti and CSM Reşiţa have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (6)
€3m
CON (6)
€1m
CSI (4)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
CSB (6)
€1m
CH (2)
€1m
FV (2)
€1m
DUM (4)
€0m
CR (4)
€0m
MB (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
CT (2)
€0m
MET (3)
€0m
VŞ (3)
€0m
SLA (4)
€0m
CSA Steaua Bucureşti and CSM Reşiţa have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (9)
€6m
CH (10)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
CSI (9)
€3m
BO (11)
€2m
SLA (9)
€1m
CR (7)
€1m
CSB (10)
€1m
CT (11)
€1m
MB (9)
€1m
CON (9)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
DUM (8)
€1m
MET (7)
€1m
CA (4)
€0m
CSA Steaua Bucureşti and CSM Reşiţa have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Romania: Liga II 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →