PythiaFootballBETA
This Bulgaria: First League encounter between CSKA 1948 and Arda Kardzhali is finely balanced, with CSKA 1948's undefeated streak in their last five matches a notable storyline. They've been unbeaten, but their last opponent, Lokomotiv Sofia, inflicted a 3-1 defeat. Arda Kardzhali, on the other hand, comes off a 2-0 win against Dunav Ruse.
The model predicts an away win for Arda Kardzhali, with a 35% chance of victory at CSKA 1948's home turf. The match is expected to produce 2.4 goals on average. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring 14.5% of the time. Arda Kardzhali have scored an average of 1.25 goals when playing away against similar opponents, while conceding 0.75 goals. CSKA 1948 have scored 1.6 goals at home against similar opponents, while conceding 0.6 goals.
The model's selection is an Under 3.5 total goals, occurring 78.6% of the time, with a slight edge. Another selection is Over 21.5 fouls, happening 72.2% of the time. CSKA 1948 has a 34% chance of winning, a 31% chance of drawing, and a 35% chance of losing. Arda Kardzhali's selections include an Under 3.5 total goals (78.6%), Over 21.5 fouls (72.2%), and the model's predicted Away win (35%).
CSKA 1948's 2-1 win over Arda Kardzhali extends their unbeaten run. The upset result marks a surprise turn of events, as Arda Kardzhali were the pre-match favourites with a 35% probability of winning. The model's selection, an away win, was incorrect, as the home team secured the victory. The model correctly identified the suggested pick, Under 3.5, which hit with a probability of 78.6%. The most likely score was a 1-1 draw, but only 28% of the simulations predicted this outcome. Arda Kardzhali's recent form saw them coming off a win, while CSKA 1948 were unbeaten in their last 5 matches, setting the stage for a closely contested match.
CSKA 1948| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.03 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.81 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.29 | 1.71 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.25 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 2.14 | 1.14 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.91 | 0.64 | 1.80 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
Arda Kardzhali| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 0.97 | 1.23 | 0.85 | 1.47 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.00 | 1.80 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.33 | 0.71 | 1.36 | 0.73 | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 2.00 | 1.25 | - | - | 2.00 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
| Arda Kardzhali goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 9.7% | 14% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 6.5% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
CSKA 1948Arda KardzhaliCSKA 1948| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 21.5 | 22.5 | 20.5 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 7.5 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 19.5 | 20.5 | 18.5 |
| vs Similar (20) | 8.4 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 22.8 | 25.4 | 20.9 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 11.0 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 |
| % over line | 48% | 46% | 50% | 32% | 28% | 36% | 44% | 62% | 29% |
| % under line | 52% | 54% | 50% | 68% | 72% | 64% | 56% | 38% | 71% |
Arda Kardzhali| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.4 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 24.7 | 23.9 | 25.5 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 9.5 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 23.7 | 24.3 | 23.0 |
| vs Similar (35) | 8.4 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 24.6 | 23.6 | 25.9 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 6.3 | 14.0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 27.3 | 26.0 | 28.0 |
| % over line | 35% | 38% | 31% | 40% | 38% | 42% | 77% | 69% | 85% |
| % under line | 65% | 62% | 69% | 60% | 62% | 58% | 23% | 31% | 15% |
CSKA 1948| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.40 | 0.64 | 0.43 | 0.88 | 0.38 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.86 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.75 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1.29 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.73 | 0.27 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
Arda Kardzhali| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.37 | 0.69 | 0.31 | 0.65 | 0.41 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.57 | 0.24 | 0.73 | 0.27 | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.00 | 0.75 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
CSKA 1948| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.63 | 0.50 | 0.71 | 0.94 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.43 | 1.14 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.50 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.86 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.18 | 0.36 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 1.50 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
Arda Kardzhali| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.82 | 0.65 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.20 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.76 | 0.48 | 0.64 | 0.45 | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.00 | 0.50 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 11.5 corners | 82.6% | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.17 | - | - | +5.9% | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 81.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 79.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 78.6% | 1.19 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | +0.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 73.5% | 1.34 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.32 | +5.0% | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 18/07/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 03/03/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/10/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 20/05/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 29/04/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 14/12/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 27/11/23 | A | 0-3 |
CSKA 1948| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 25/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 08/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 15/04/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 3-0 |
Arda Kardzhali| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 25/05/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 12/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 30/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 0-4 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Ludogorets | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 83% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | 10.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 46 | 27 | 6 | 13 | 1.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 |  Levski Sofia | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 15 | 2 | +13 | 3.4 | 100% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | 2.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 3.0 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 |  CSKA Sofia | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 2.6 | 0.6 | - |
| 4 | Arda Kardzhali | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | 6.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | - |
| 5 | CSKA 1948 | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | 6.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 |  Botev Plovdiv | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2.7 | 67% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | 7.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 20 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 |  Septemvri Sofia | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2.2 | 67% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.5 | - |
| 8 |  Slavia Sofia | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 1.6 | 60% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | 10.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | - |
| 9 |  Spartak Varna | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3.2 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 10 |  Cherno More Varna | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 11 |  Botev Vratsa | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 2.8 | 83% | 67% | 17% | - | 0% | 7.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.2 | - |
| 12 |  Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 6 | 3 | 17% | 0.5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1.8 | 50% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | 8.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 |  Dunav Ruse | 6 | 3 | 17% | 0.5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.8 | 100% | 67% | 17% | - | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 14 |  Lokomotiv Sofia | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |