Cherno More Varna's recent struggles away from home, having lost two consecutive matches, may have some bearing on this matchup against CSKA 1948. However, the home side has also been unbeaten in their last five matches, securing a 3-1 win over Lokomotiv Sofia in their most recent outing.
CSKA 1948 are the favourites to win at home, with a 43% probability, followed by a 32% chance of a draw and a 25% probability of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.1, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 14.4%.
CSKA 1948 have scored an average of 0.75 goals at home, conceding the same number, while Cherno More Varna have scored 1.08 goals away from home, conceding 1.08 as well, both against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the Under 3.5, with a probability of 83.4% and an edge of 8%. This selection is also the model's pick for the match. The home win percentage is 43%, the draw percentage is 32%, and the away win percentage is 25%. The model's other selections include the Under 3.5 at 83.4% and the Home win at 43%.
The win extends CSKA 1948's run of form, following a 4-1 victory over Cherno More Varna. This result sees the actual total goals well clear of the model's expected 2.1, with the final score being 4-1. The model's selection, a Home win, was correct, carrying a pre-match probability of 43%. The model's call was correct, as CSKA 1948 took home the win. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals was the model's selection, but it missed, with a probability of 83.4%.
CSKA 1948| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.13 | 1.73 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 1.22 | 1.56 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.27 | 0.82 | 0.33 | 0.83 | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.90 | 0.70 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.83 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+3pp vs league) | |||||
Cherno More Varna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.20 | 0.87 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.92 | 1.17 | 0.73 | 1.27 | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
| Cherno More Varna goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 13% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 14% | 14% | 5.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 9.2% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
CSKA 1948
Cherno More Varna
CSKA 1948| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 21.8 | 23.4 | 20.5 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 9.8 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 21.8 | 26.0 | 19.0 |
| vs Similar (19) | 8.4 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 22.8 | 25.4 | 20.9 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 11.0 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 |
| % over line | 50% | 46% | 53% | 34% | 31% | 38% | 46% | 69% | 27% |
| % under line | 50% | 54% | 47% | 66% | 69% | 62% | 54% | 31% | 73% |
Cherno More Varna| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 24.6 | 25.5 | 23.9 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 10.9 | 13.0 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 4.4 | 24.2 | 27.5 | 23.2 |
| vs Similar (36) | 8.1 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 24.8 | 25.1 | 24.4 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 48% | 45% | 50% | 34% | 28% | 40% | 76% | 91% | 64% |
| % under line | 52% | 55% | 50% | 66% | 72% | 60% | 24% | 9% | 36% |
CSKA 1948| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.47 | 0.87 | 0.33 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.78 | 0.56 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.82 | 0.36 | 0.17 | 0.33 | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.60 | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.33 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
Cherno More Varna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.27 | 0.55 | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+37pp vs league) | |||||
CSKA 1948| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.87 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.44 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.17 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.30 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
Cherno More Varna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.93 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.50 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.58 | 0.67 | 0.45 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 83.4% | 1.23 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.24 | +7.7% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 cards | 81.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 80.3% | 1.23 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.22 | 1.20 | - | +6.1% | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 77.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 72.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 10.5 corners | 70.6% | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.43 | 1.41 | 1.40 | - | +5.9% | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 09/11/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 24/11/24 | H | 0-4 | |
| 19/07/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 15/03/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/09/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 20/05/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 30/04/23 | A | 0-0 |
CSKA 1948| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 05/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 25/07/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 25/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 08/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-0 |
Cherno More Varna| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 26/07/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 19/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 25/05/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 12/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 7 | 21 | 100% | 3.0 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 3.4 | 100% | 86% | 29% | 6.0 | 0% | 3.3 | 33% | - | 0% | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 63% |
| 2 | Ludogorets | 7 | 17 | 71% | 2.4 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 2.4 | 86% | 29% | 14% | - | 0% | 7.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 46 | 27 | 6 | 13 | 1.7 | 0.7 | - |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 3.3 | 83% | 83% | 50% | - | 0% | 8.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 2.7 | 0.7 | - |
| 4 | Arda Kardzhali | 7 | 16 | 71% | 2.3 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.1 | 71% | 29% | 14% | - | 0% | 5.3 | 100% | - | 0% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | - |
| 5 | CSKA 1948 | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 3.0 | 83% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 6 | Septemvri Sofia | 7 | 8 | 29% | 1.1 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2.1 | 71% | 43% | 0% | - | 0% | 6.3 | 100% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 1.4 | - |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 7 | 7 | 14% | 1.0 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 1.9 | 71% | 29% | 0% | 6.0 | 0% | 7.0 | 67% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 37% |
| 8 | Botev Plovdiv | 7 | 7 | 29% | 1.0 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 2.9 | 71% | 43% | 43% | - | 0% | 6.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | - |
| 9 | Spartak Varna | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 67% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | 4.0 | 67% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 7 | 4 | 14% | 0.6 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 3.0 | 100% | 71% | 29% | - | 0% | 4.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Cherno More Varna | 7 | 4 | 14% | 0.6 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3.4 | 86% | 71% | 57% | - | 0% | 6.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Botev Vratsa | 7 | 4 | 14% | 0.6 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 2.7 | 86% | 57% | 14% | - | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.6 | 2.1 | - |
| 13 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 6 | 3 | 0% | 0.5 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 3.2 | 100% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | 4.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1.9 | 57% | 29% | 0% | - | 0% | 6.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0.4 | 1.4 | - |