CSKA Moscow is the clear favourite, backed by the Pythia prediction model's high probability of a home win at 69%. This confidence stems from the team's impressive home form against weaker opponents, averaging 2 goals scored and just 0.64 conceded. Krylia Sovetov, on the other hand, struggles when facing stronger teams, scoring an average of 0.44 goals and conceding 2.22.
The model predicts a 3.0 expected total goals, with 2 goals being the most likely outcome. The most likely score is 2-0 to CSKA Moscow, with a probability of 12.5%. CSKA Moscow's home scoring and conceding statistics support this prediction, while Krylia Sovetov's away form against stronger teams suggests they may struggle to score.
The model's selection is the Home win, with a 69% probability. Other selections include Over 21.5 fouls, with an 81.2% probability, and Over 1.5, with an 80.4% probability and a 3% edge. The home win percentage is 69%, the draw percentage is 20%, and the away win percentage is 11%.
A stunning upset in the Russia: Premier League as Krylia Sovetov held CSKA Moscow to a 1-1 draw, spoiling the home side's unbeaten run in their last 5 matches. This result extends CSKA Moscow's streak of draws, having last played out a 0-0 tie against FC Rostov. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect as it predicted a 69% chance of CSKA Moscow taking the three points. The model's call was wrong, but did suggest two other selections that hit: Over 21.5 fouls (81.2%) and Over 1.5 (80.4%).
CSKA Moscow| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.27 | 1.87 | 1.20 | 0.87 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.20 | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 1.47 | 0.79 | 1.70 | 0.70 | 1.22 | 0.89 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
Krylia Sovetov| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.77 | 1.81 | 1.38 | 0.29 | 2.21 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 0.88 | 2.06 | 1.44 | 1.67 | 0.25 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.38 | 1.38 | 2.29 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.83 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-7pp vs league) | |||||
| Krylia Sovetov goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 13% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 9.2% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
CSKA Moscow
Krylia Sovetov
CSKA Moscow| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.7 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 26.8 | 26.5 | 27.1 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 9.5 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 26.0 | 23.0 | 29.0 |
| vs Similar (15) | 9.5 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 25.7 | 25.2 | 26.2 |
| vs Weaker (31) | 11.3 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 27.3 | 27.2 | 27.4 |
| % over line | 58% | 58% | 59% | 52% | 38% | 65% | 86% | 79% | 94% |
| % under line | 42% | 42% | 41% | 48% | 62% | 35% | 14% | 21% | 6% |
Krylia Sovetov| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 26.3 | 25.6 | 27.0 |
| vs Stronger (26) | 10.2 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 25.2 | 24.7 | 25.9 |
| vs Similar (24) | 8.9 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 27.3 | 26.6 | 27.9 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 45% | 65% | 25% | 54% | 42% | 67% | 88% | 75% | 100% |
| % under line | 55% | 35% | 75% | 46% | 58% | 33% | 12% | 25% | 0% |
CSKA Moscow| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.63 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.27 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.17 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 0.47 | 0.42 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
Krylia Sovetov| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.83 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 0.14 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 0.29 | 0.82 | 0.44 | 0.78 | 0.12 | 0.88 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.85 | 0.85 | 1.43 | 0.57 | 0.17 | 1.17 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
CSKA Moscow| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.63 | 1.13 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.17 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 1.00 | 0.37 | 1.10 | 0.20 | 0.89 | 0.56 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
Krylia Sovetov| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.69 | 0.14 | 1.21 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 0.59 | 1.24 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 0.12 | 1.62 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.86 | 0.43 | 0.17 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 93.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 86.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 82.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 80.4% | 1.20 | 1.23 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.19 | - | +2.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 76.0% | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | - | - | - | +8.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 73.2% | 1.39 | 1.42 | 1.38 | 1.36 | - | - | +7.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 07/04/26 | A | 2-5 | |
| 25/10/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 20/04/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/11/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 08/03/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 16/09/23 | H | 2-2 | |
| 12/03/23 | H | 4-0 |
CSKA Moscow| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 11/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 06/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 07/04/26 | A | 2-5 |
Krylia Sovetov| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 01/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 07/04/26 | H | 2-5 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Krasnodar | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | 8.4 | 40% | 4.2 | 80% | 23.8 | 60% | 125 | 64 | 20 | 41 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 57% |
| 2 | Spartak Moscow | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 100% | 80% | 0% | 11.2 | 60% | 5.8 | 80% | 28.6 | 100% | 119 | 58 | 29 | 32 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 60% |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 7.2 | 20% | 3.4 | 20% | 25.8 | 80% | 137 | 41 | 52 | 44 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 57% |
| 4 | Zenit | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 3.2 | 100% | 80% | 20% | 10.2 | 40% | 5.2 | 80% | 26.8 | 60% | 204 | 109 | 44 | 51 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 57% |
| 5 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | 10.0 | 80% | 4.0 | 40% | 23.8 | 60% | 23 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 39% |
| 6 | Baltika | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 100% | 60% | 0% | 9.2 | 40% | 2.6 | 20% | 25.6 | 80% | 36 | 8 | 13 | 16 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 37% |
| 7 | Dynamo | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 40% | 7.8 | 20% | 4.5 | 75% | 27.4 | 100% | 111 | 46 | 23 | 41 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 65% |
| 8 | Rubin | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 2.6 | 100% | 40% | 20% | 7.8 | 20% | 3.0 | 20% | 24.6 | 60% | 53 | 18 | 13 | 22 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 45% |
| 9 | FC Orenburg | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 80% | 40% | 0% | 8.8 | 40% | 4.8 | 60% | 29.0 | 100% | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 41% |
| 10 | Akhmat | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 7.8 | 20% | 3.4 | 40% | 25.2 | 80% | 32 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 43% |
| 11 | FC Rostov | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 7.2 | 20% | 4.2 | 20% | 26.8 | 80% | 37 | 17 | 3 | 17 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 50% |
| 12 | Krylia Sovetov | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 8.6 | 20% | 4.8 | 50% | 27.4 | 80% | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 13 | Rodina Moskva | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | 10.8 | 60% | 3.0 | 20% | 26.6 | 80% | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 39% |
| 14 | Lokomotiv | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 7.8 | 20% | 3.4 | 20% | 27.4 | 80% | 111 | 53 | 18 | 41 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 15 | Fakel | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1.8 | 40% | 40% | 20% | 10.2 | 80% | 3.6 | 60% | 25.6 | 80% | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 16 | Akron | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 3.4 | 80% | 80% | 40% | 8.6 | 20% | 4.4 | 60% | 25.6 | 60% | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 57% |