CSKA Sofia II is the favourite to win this match, coming off a recent win against Pirin Blagoevgrad. The model predicts a home win with a 53% probability, while the draw has a 28% chance and Hebar 1918's away win is the least likely outcome at 20%. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.1%. CSKA Sofia II has a strong home form, scoring an average of 2.83 goals and conceding just 0.5 goals against weaker opponents. In contrast, Hebar 1918 struggles to score when playing away, averaging 1.1 goals against stronger opponents, while conceding 1.6 goals. The model's selections include Under 3.5, with a 76.6% probability, and Over 1.5, with a 71.6% probability. The home win percentage is 53%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 20%.
Results analysis
CSKA Sofia II's 4-3 win over Hebar 1918 extends their 2-game winning run, as they continue to impress in the Bulgaria: Second League. The final score was well clear of the expected 2.5 total goals and the most likely score of 2-0. The model's selection, home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 53%. The model's call was correct, as the home side secured a thrilling victory.
The model's selection, Under 3.5, missed, with a probability of 76.6%, while Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 71.6%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
CSKA Sofia II win✓ Hit
52.6%
Avg Implied 48.3% · @ 1.85
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.32
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
Betano
3.45
Dafabet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Hebar 1918 win✗ Miss
19.8%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.60
Edge
-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.00
Bet365
3.80
SBO
3.72
Dafabet
3.70
10Bet
3.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CSKA Sofia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.83
2.00
0.53
1.80
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.42
0.67
0.67
0.33
2.17
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
2.22
0.94
2.89
0.67
1.56
1.22
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Hebar 1918) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hebar 1918
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.67
1.40
2.00
1.13
1.33
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
1.90
1.00
1.80
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.40
1.55
1.60
2.10
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.6%
@ 1.23-2.2%
Under 1.5
28.4%
@ 3.46+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Under
Betfair
3.80
Superbet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.34
Unibet
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.5%
@ 1.80-6.7%
Under 2.5
55.5%
@ 1.89+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Superbet
1.80
Under
SBO
1.98
Bet365
1.95
Betfair
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.4%
@ 2.92-7.7%
Under 3.5
76.6%
@ 1.32+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.92
1xBet
2.92
Superbet
2.82
Under
Superbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.6%
@ 1.69-6.5%
No
52.4%
@ 2.00+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.71
Superbet
1.69
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
No
William Hil
2.05
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 6.08+6.8%
1-0
12.3%@ 6.95+6.8%
2-0
10.7%@ 8.25+6.0%
0-0
9.7%@ 9.71+5.8%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.51+4.3%
0-1
6.3%@ 10.40+2.7%
3-0
5.6%@ 13.71+2.8%
1-2
5.2%@ 11.47+1.9%
CSKA Sofia II goals ↓
Hebar 1918 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
6.3%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.2%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.4%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
3
5.6%
4.9%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.2%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSKA Sofia II goals (down), columns = Hebar 1918 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
CSKA Sofia II is 0.86 points better than Hebar 1918 in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
CSKA Sofia II is 0.43 goals better than Hebar 1918 in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
CSKA Sofia II is 0.86 goals better than Hebar 1918 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CSKA Sofia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.73
0.40
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.50
0.00
0.33
1.17
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.56
1.22
0.44
0.78
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Hebar 1918) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hebar 1918
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.97
0.80
1.07
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.10
0.20
1.00
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.90
1.10
1.10
0.10
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CSKA Sofia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.30
1.27
0.13
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.17
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (18)
1.22
0.39
1.67
0.22
0.78
0.56
Clean sheet %
70% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Hebar 1918) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hebar 1918
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.60
0.93
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.65
0.50
1.00
1.10
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
76.6%
1.32
Superbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
+7.7%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.6%
1.23
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
-2.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hebar 1918 · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kenan Dunnwald-Turan50%
Nabil Makni43%
Toma Ushagelov20%
Oleksiy Zbun14%
Atanas Kabov14%
Kaloyan Krastev12%
Dušan Vuković9%
Stefan Tsonkov0%
Kristiyan Andonov0%
Georgi Tartov0%
Nikolay Nikolaev0%
Radoslav Galinov Terziev0%
Milen Gamakov0%
Miloš Petrović0%
Yanko Angelov0%
Oktay Hamdiev0%
Mario Zebić0%
Róbert Mazáň0%
Márcio Rosa0%
Hama Tsumu0%
Daniil Kondrakov0%
Ilker Budinov0%
Petar Debarliev0%
Nathan Markelo0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Yanis Guermouche0%
Martin Mihaylov0%
Enzo El Fattahi0%
Branimir Ćavar0%
Bozhidar Penchev0%
Sheikh Senghor0%
Iliya Rusinov0%
Dominik Pavlek0%
William Fonkeu0%
Kaloyan Pehlivanov0%
Georgi Plamenov Staykov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Enzo El Fattahi67%
Oleksiy Zbun43%
Yanis Guermouche43%
Róbert Mazáň40%
Radoslav Galinov Terziev33%
Ilker Budinov33%
Johan N'Zi33%
Branimir Ćavar33%
Nathan Markelo29%
Milen Gamakov25%
Miloš Petrović25%
Yanko Angelov25%
Georgi Plamenov Staykov25%
Martin Mihaylov22%
Nabil Makni21%
Iliya Rusinov20%
Kaloyan Pehlivanov20%
Dušan Vuković18%
Nikolay Nikolaev17%
Kenan Dunnwald-Turan17%
Atanas Kabov14%
Georgi Tartov14%
Sheikh Senghor14%
Kaloyan Krastev12%
Bozhidar Penchev8%
Stefan Tsonkov0%
Kristiyan Andonov0%
Oktay Hamdiev0%
Mario Zebić0%
Márcio Rosa0%
Hama Tsumu0%
Daniil Kondrakov0%
Petar Debarliev0%
Toma Ushagelov0%
Dominik Pavlek0%
William Fonkeu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kristiyan Andonov29%
Róbert Mazáň20%
Iliya Rusinov20%
Atanas Kabov14%
Nabil Makni14%
William Fonkeu12%
Dušan Vuković9%
Oleksiy Zbun0%
Stefan Tsonkov0%
Georgi Tartov0%
Nikolay Nikolaev0%
Radoslav Galinov Terziev0%
Milen Gamakov0%
Miloš Petrović0%
Yanko Angelov0%
Oktay Hamdiev0%
Mario Zebić0%
Márcio Rosa0%
Hama Tsumu0%
Daniil Kondrakov0%
Ilker Budinov0%
Petar Debarliev0%
Kaloyan Krastev0%
Kenan Dunnwald-Turan0%
Nathan Markelo0%
Toma Ushagelov0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Yanis Guermouche0%
Martin Mihaylov0%
Enzo El Fattahi0%
Branimir Ćavar0%
Bozhidar Penchev0%
Sheikh Senghor0%
Dominik Pavlek0%
Kaloyan Pehlivanov0%
Georgi Plamenov Staykov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kenan Dunnwald-Turan33%
Yanis Guermouche29%
Atanas Kabov14%
Dušan Vuković9%
Oleksiy Zbun0%
Stefan Tsonkov0%
Kristiyan Andonov0%
Georgi Tartov0%
Nikolay Nikolaev0%
Radoslav Galinov Terziev0%
Milen Gamakov0%
Miloš Petrović0%
Yanko Angelov0%
Oktay Hamdiev0%
Mario Zebić0%
Róbert Mazáň0%
Márcio Rosa0%
Hama Tsumu0%
Daniil Kondrakov0%
Ilker Budinov0%
Petar Debarliev0%
Kaloyan Krastev0%
Nathan Markelo0%
Toma Ushagelov0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Martin Mihaylov0%
Enzo El Fattahi0%
Branimir Ćavar0%
Bozhidar Penchev0%
Sheikh Senghor0%
Nabil Makni0%
Iliya Rusinov0%
Dominik Pavlek0%
William Fonkeu0%
Kaloyan Pehlivanov0%
Georgi Plamenov Staykov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
CSKA Sofia II's squad is €1m less valuable than Hebar 1918's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
CSKA Sofia II and Hebar 1918 have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CSKA Sofia II and Hebar 1918 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
CSKA Sofia II and Hebar 1918 have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →