CSKA Sofia II are tipped to take the win, with a 56% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and only 16% for Sportist Svoge. The match is expected to see 2.3 goals on average, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0, a 14.9% probability. CSKA Sofia II have been scoring and conceding two goals on average at home against weaker opposition, while Sportist Svoge, playing away against stronger teams, averages just 0.5 goals scored and 2.17 conceded. The model’s selection for this game is “Under 3.5” with an 80.6% chance. CSKA Sofia II’s recent form shows a win-winning streak after a defeat, whereas Sportist Svoge’s last five include a draw after a loss. The final score of the last match was 6-0, confirming CSKA Sofia II’s dominance.
Results analysis
CSKA Sofia II’s recent run of four wins after a defeat set the tone for a dominant home display, while Sportist Svoge, fresh from a draw, struggled on the road. The match finished 6-0, a total far beyond the model’s 2.3-goal expectation and the most likely 2-goal outcome. The pre-match favourite was a Home win, with a 56% probability, and the model’s call proved correct. The only suggested pick was Under 3.5 goals, with an 80.6% probability, which missed as the scoreline surpassed that threshold. The result confirmed the model’s prediction of a CSKA victory, though the goal tally was an overwhelming surprise.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
CSKA Sofia II win✓ Hit
56.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge win✗ Miss
16.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CSKA Sofia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.30
1.85
1.23
0.88
1.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.16
1.11
1.78
0.89
0.60
1.30
vs Weaker (11)
1.55
1.64
2.00
2.00
1.29
1.43
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sportist Svoge
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.00
0.87
0.80
0.40
1.20
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.75
0.67
1.33
0.50
2.17
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.44
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.3%
Under 1.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.5%
Under 2.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.4%
Under 3.5
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.5%
No
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.9%
1-1
12.7%
2-0
12.4%
0-0
11.5%
2-1
8.9%
3-0
6.4%
0-1
6.3%
3-1
4.6%
CSKA Sofia II goals ↓
Sportist Svoge goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
6.3%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
1
15%
13%
4.1%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
8.9%
3.2%
0.8%
0.1%
3
6.4%
4.6%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.5%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSKA Sofia II goals (down), columns = Sportist Svoge goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dunav Ruse
2.16
Yantra 2019
2.00
Fratria
1.97
Vihren
1.81
CSKA Sofia II
1.72
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.44
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.38
Marek
1.28
Ludogorets II
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.25
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.09
Sportist Svoge
1.06
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
Sevlievo
1.00
FK Minyor Pernik
0.94
Belasitsa
0.59
CSKA Sofia II is 0.66 points better than Sportist Svoge in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Fratria
1.91
Vihren
1.84
CSKA Sofia II
1.78
Dunav Ruse
1.66
Yantra 2019
1.41
Ludogorets II
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.28
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.22
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.19
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.16
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
FK Minyor Pernik
1.00
Sevlievo
0.91
Sportist Svoge
0.88
Marek
0.84
Belasitsa
0.81
CSKA Sofia II is 0.91 goals better than Sportist Svoge in terms of goals scored per game (1.78 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dunav Ruse
0.50
Yantra 2019
0.75
Fratria
0.91
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Vihren
1.06
Marek
1.09
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.28
Ludogorets II
1.34
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.34
FK Minyor Pernik
1.41
Spartak Pleven
1.41
Sportist Svoge
1.50
Hebar 1918
1.59
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.62
Sevlievo
1.62
Belasitsa
1.94
CSKA Sofia II is 0.50 goals better than Sportist Svoge in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CSKA Sofia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.85
0.62
0.41
0.59
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.47
1.00
0.44
0.30
0.50
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.82
0.50
1.00
0.57
0.71
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sportist Svoge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.37
0.20
0.13
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.17
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.28
0.17
0.33
0.11
0.22
0.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CSKA Sofia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
1.00
0.62
0.47
0.76
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.63
0.78
0.44
0.30
0.80
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.82
1.50
1.00
0.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sportist Svoge
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.13
0.60
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.08
0.67
1.17
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.11
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (22)
€4m
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
CSKA Sofia II's squad is €1m more valuable than Sportist Svoge's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
CSKA Sofia II and Sportist Svoge have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (5)
€1m
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CSKA Sofia II and Sportist Svoge have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (11)
€2m
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
CSKA Sofia II and Sportist Svoge have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →