CSKA Sofia II are the clear favorites, with the model assigning a 69% chance of a home win. Their recent unbeaten run of five games, including a 1-1 draw against Ludogorets II, underlines a strong form at home. The opponent, Sportist Svoge, struggles on the road, having conceded 2.71 goals per game against stronger sides and scored only 0.43 away. The expected total is 2.6 goals, centring on a 2-0 scoreline that carries a 14.7% probability. The model predicts a 69%home win, a 22% draw, and a 10% away win. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.6%), Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (97.6%), Home +2 handicap (97.5%), Under 5.5 (95.3%), Home or Draw (90.4%), and Home +1 handicap (90.4%). CSKA Sofia II’s average of 3.62 goals scored and 0.88 conceded at home contrasts sharply with Sportist Svoge’s weaker away record, explaining the high confidence in a decisive home victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
CSKA Sofia II win
72.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge win
8.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CSKA Sofia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.87
2.20
0.73
1.73
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.23
0.77
0.50
0.50
1.86
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
2.53
0.94
3.33
0.89
1.62
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sportist Svoge
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.43
0.93
1.20
0.73
1.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
2.31
1.40
1.80
0.50
2.62
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.76
0.70
0.90
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.1%
Under 1.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.6%
Under 2.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.4%
Under 3.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.4%
No
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.3%
1-0
12.2%
3-0
10.4%
1-1
9.0%
2-1
9.0%
0-0
6.8%
3-1
6.6%
4-0
5.7%
CSKA Sofia II goals ↓
Sportist Svoge goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
2.9%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
1
12%
9.0%
2.6%
0.5%
0.1%
2
14%
9.0%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
3
10%
6.6%
2.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
5.7%
3.6%
1.1%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSKA Sofia II goals (down), columns = Sportist Svoge goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
CSKA Sofia II is 1.14 points better than Sportist Svoge in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
CSKA Sofia II is 1.57 goals better than Sportist Svoge in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 0.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
CSKA Sofia II is 0.14 goals worse than Sportist Svoge in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
CSKA Sofia II or Draw
91.6%
Avg Implied -
72%
19%
8%
covers CSKA Sofia II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II or Sportist Svoge
80.9%
Avg Implied -
72%
19%
8%
covers CSKA Sofia II + Sportist Svoge
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sportist Svoge
27.6%
Avg Implied -
72%
19%
8%
covers Draw + Sportist Svoge
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 0.5
Over
88.8%
Under
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 1.5
Over
64.4%
Under
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 2.5
Over
37.5%
Under
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 3.5
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5
Over
46.8%
Under
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 3.5
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to CSKA Sofia II, so a minus line means CSKA Sofia II give that many goals of a start and Sportist Svoge receive them. At -1, CSKA Sofia II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal CSKA Sofia II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (CSKA Sofia II)
CSKA Sofia II -2
26.8%
Draw -2
22.1%
Sportist Svoge +2
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (CSKA Sofia II)
CSKA Sofia II -1
48.9%
Draw -1
23.5%
Sportist Svoge +1
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (CSKA Sofia II)
CSKA Sofia II +1
91.6%
Draw +1
6.2%
Sportist Svoge -1
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (CSKA Sofia II)
CSKA Sofia II +2
97.8%
Draw +2
1.8%
Sportist Svoge -2
0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CSKA Sofia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.67
0.47
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.46
0.00
0.33
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.59
1.11
0.56
0.88
0.62
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sportist Svoge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.40
0.73
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
1.23
0.60
1.40
0.25
1.12
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.24
0.30
0.40
0.43
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CSKA Sofia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.33
1.53
0.27
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.31
0.50
0.17
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
1.53
0.35
2.22
0.33
0.75
0.38
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sportist Svoge
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.53
0.47
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.08
0.80
0.40
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.53
0.40
0.50
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
CSKA Sofia II's squad is €1m more valuable than Sportist Svoge's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
CSKA Sofia II and Sportist Svoge have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CSKA Sofia II and Sportist Svoge have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
CSKA Sofia II and Sportist Svoge have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vihren
Fratria
Yantra 2019
Montana
Beroe
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Nesebar
Marek
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Rilski Sportist
Hebar 1918
Ludogorets II
Spartak Pleven
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad