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CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv Result & Analysis

Date: 27/07/2026
Time: 18:15
Final 3-2
CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
Vs
49%
29%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
Bulgaria: First League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives CSKA Sofia a 49% win probability against Botev Plovdiv in the Bulgaria: First League on 2026-07-27, with 29% for the draw and 22% for Botev Plovdiv. The model estimates around 2.4 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (78%), Over 1.5 (70%).

Results analysis

CSKA Sofia finished 3-2 against Botev Plovdiv (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 49% home win, 29% draw and 22% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (70%). Missed: Under 3.5 (78%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

CSKA Sofia win✓ Hit
48.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Botev Plovdiv win✗ Miss
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D13L10W10W11D02L01L00D00DA·MON08/04H·LEV13/04H·LEV25/04H·LUD03/05A·CSK08/05H·CSK13/05A·LEV16/05A·LUD25/05A·SLA20/07A·QAR23/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.731.790.710.940.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.441.110.751.000.201.20
vs Weaker (21)1.710.572.200.601.270.55
Clean sheet %50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Plovdiv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Botev PlovdivBotev Plovdiv

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-550W11D30W20W02L02L12L50W12L11DH·SPA04/04H·LOK08/04A·DOB14/04A·ARD26/04H·LOK03/05A·CHE09/05H·ARD12/05H·CHE16/05A·LOK25/05H·LOK21/07
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.131.501.061.211.21
vs Stronger (6)0.671.501.001.330.331.67
vs Similar (22)1.550.951.670.831.401.10
vs Weaker (2)1.502.001.003.002.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%312%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.2%
Under 1.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.8%
Under 2.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.9%
Under 3.5
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
12.2%
0-0
10.4%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
4.8%
CSKA Sofia goals ↓
Botev Plovdiv goals →
01234
010%7.2%3.9%1.2%0.3%
112%14%5.7%1.8%0.4%
29.9%9.1%4.2%1.3%0.3%
34.8%4.5%2.1%0.6%0.1%
41.8%1.6%0.8%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSKA Sofia goals (down), columns = Botev Plovdiv goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Levski Sofia
2.25
CSKA 1948
1.86
Ludogorets
1.84
CSKA Sofia
1.75
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.56
Cherno More Varna
1.50
Arda Kardzhali
1.50
Botev Vratsa
1.43
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.27
Slavia Sofia
1.24
Botev Plovdiv
1.23
Dunav Ruse
1.14
Septemvri Sofia
1.03
Spartak Varna
1.00
CSKA Sofia is 0.52 points better than Botev Plovdiv in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.23).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
1.97
Ludogorets
1.65
CSKA 1948
1.50
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.38
CSKA Sofia
1.31
Botev Plovdiv
1.29
Arda Kardzhali
1.17
Slavia Sofia
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.11
Dunav Ruse
1.01
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.97
Spartak Varna
0.95
Septemvri Sofia
0.89
CSKA Sofia is 0.02 goals better than Botev Plovdiv in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.29).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ludogorets
0.68
Levski Sofia
0.69
CSKA Sofia
0.83
Botev Vratsa
0.86
Cherno More Varna
0.94
Arda Kardzhali
0.94
CSKA 1948
0.97
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.03
Slavia Sofia
1.19
Botev Plovdiv
1.29
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.30
Dunav Ruse
1.35
Spartak Varna
1.54
Septemvri Sofia
1.71
CSKA Sofia is 0.45 goals better than Botev Plovdiv in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.29).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
65%
Ludogorets
64%
CSKA Sofia
58%
Arda Kardzhali
52%
CSKA 1948
52%
Cherno More Varna
52%
Lokomotiv Sofia
51%
Botev Plovdiv
51%
Septemvri Sofia
47%
Botev Vratsa
47%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
45%
Slavia Sofia
44%
Spartak Varna
40%
CSKA Sofia is 7.9 percentage points better than Botev Plovdiv in terms of average possession (58% vs 51%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia

For 5.7 · Against 2.5 · Total 8.2

🚩 Corners

140557475644411044273101112104514673H·LEVA·MONA·BERH·DOBA·LUDH·LOKH·BOTA·SEPH·SLAA·CSK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.4

🟨 Cards

702111213322511221133236272234A·QARH·LEVA·MONA·BERH·DOBA·LUDH·LOKH·BOTA·SEPH·SLA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.7 · Total 22.6

⚠️ Fouls

280161059141112131198135712151414121626142525202112272828H·LEVA·MONA·BERH·DOBA·LUDH·LOKH·BOTA·SEPH·SLAA·CSK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Botev PlovdivBotev Plovdiv

For 4.6 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.4

🚩 Corners

15041321417633364141311165515136955147H·LOKA·DOBH·SPAA·SLAH·BOTA·CSKH·SEPA·MONH·LUDA·LEV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.8

🟨 Cards

905321422132272118362152092H·LOKA·DOBH·SPAA·SLAH·BOTA·CSKH·SEPA·MONH·LUDA·LEV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.0

⚠️ Fouls

2809151311151013105181013815951513131024242523232323142823H·LOKA·DOBH·SPAA·SLAH·BOTA·CSKH·SEPA·MONH·LUDA·LEV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.49.39.43.32.83.721.921.921.9
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (9)8.09.56.53.42.54.226.526.526.5
vs Weaker (41)9.69.39.83.22.93.521.321.221.3
% over line61%60%61%42%35%48%52%53%50%
% under line39%40%39%58%65%52%48%47%50%
This opponent (Botev Plovdiv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Botev PlovdivBotev Plovdiv

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.69.49.82.93.22.522.122.821.3
vs Stronger (12)9.78.210.83.93.34.521.621.221.8
vs Similar (36)10.010.19.82.53.31.722.023.420.6
vs Weaker (2)5.56.05.03.01.05.024.523.026.0
% over line50%50%50%38%42%33%62%69%56%
% under line50%50%50%62%58%67%38%31%44%
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.4
Botev Plovdiv
10.2
CSKA Sofia
10.2
Spartak Varna
10.1
Levski Sofia
9.6
Ludogorets
9.5
Botev Vratsa
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.4
CSKA 1948
9.3
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Septemvri Sofia
8.9
Arda Kardzhali
8.6
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
4.9
Spartak Varna
4.9
Botev Vratsa
4.8
Cherno More Varna
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.7
Ludogorets
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.7
Slavia Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.1

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.1
Levski Sofia
24.7
Botev Vratsa
24.5
Arda Kardzhali
24.1
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.9
Slavia Sofia
23.8
Spartak Varna
23.0
Septemvri Sofia
22.9
CSKA 1948
22.9
Ludogorets
22.4
CSKA Sofia
22.4
Botev Plovdiv
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.2%
Under 9.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.7%
Under 3.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
52.6%
Under 21.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.1%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.570.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
BP (52)
€20m
AK (20)
€10m
CMV (22)
€6m
CSKA Sofia's squad is €6m more valuable than Botev Plovdiv's (€26m vs €20m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
BP (20)
€7m
AK (7)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
CSKA Sofia's attack is €3m more valuable than Botev Plovdiv's (€10m vs €7m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
BP (11)
€4m
AK (3)
€3m
CMV (5)
€1m
CSKA Sofia's midfield is €2m more valuable than Botev Plovdiv's (€6m vs €4m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
BP (21)
€8m
AK (10)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
CSKA Sofia's defence is €2m more valuable than Botev Plovdiv's (€10m vs €8m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv · H/A from CS
DateH/AGameScore
22/11/25HCS Vs Botev Plovdiv2-1
19/07/25ABotev Plovdiv Vs CS1-1
26/05/25ABotev Plovdiv Vs CS0-4
09/05/25HCS Vs Botev Plovdiv3-0
22/02/25ABotev Plovdiv Vs CS0-3
30/08/24HCS Vs Botev Plovdiv0-1
17/03/24HCS Vs Botev Plovdiv4-0
22/09/23ABotev Plovdiv Vs CS1-2

CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/07/26AQarabag Vs CS0-0
20/07/26ASlavia Sofia Vs CS0-0
25/05/26ALudogorets Vs CS1-0
16/05/26ALevski Sofia Vs CS2-0
13/05/26HCS Vs CSKA 19481-1
08/05/26ACSKA 1948 Vs CS0-1
03/05/26HCS Vs Ludogorets1-0
25/04/26HCS Vs Levski Sofia1-3
13/04/26HCS Vs Levski Sofia1-1
08/04/26AMontana Vs CS0-1

Botev PlovdivBotev Plovdiv

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/07/26HBP Vs Lokomotiv Sofia1-1
25/05/26ALokomotiv Plovdiv Vs BP2-1
16/05/26HBP Vs Cherno More Varna5-0
12/05/26HBP Vs Arda Kardzhali1-2
09/05/26ACherno More Varna Vs BP2-0
03/05/26HBP Vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv0-2
26/04/26AArda Kardzhali Vs BP0-2
14/04/26ADobrudzha Vs BP0-3
08/04/26HBP Vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-1
04/04/26HBP Vs Spartak Varna5-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
Bulgaria: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLDD1.88
HomeWDLWD2.30
AwayWLLDD1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%70%41%
AVG goals2.102.431.81
Over 1.5 %62%70%56%
Over 2.5 %32%43%22%
Over 3.5 %18%26%11%
Scored1.421.831.07
Conceded0.680.610.74
BTTS34%48%22%
Clean Sheet48%48%48%
Corners9.369.339.39
Cards4.694.065.21
Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
Bulgaria: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLD1.18
HomeDLLWD1.23
AwayWWWLL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%31%29%
AVG goals2.722.692.75
Over 1.5 %82%81%83%
Over 2.5 %56%50%62%
Over 3.5 %24%27%21%
Scored1.321.271.38
Conceded1.401.421.38
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet26%23%29%
Corners9.599.389.81
Cards4.505.193.81

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LudogoretsLudogorets515
100%
3.0
103+7
2.6
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
46
276132.00.6
64%
2CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia513
80%
2.6
133+10
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
26
106102.60.6
58%
3CSKA 1948CSKA 1948412
100%
3.0
114+7
3.8
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
52%
4Levski SofiaLevski Sofia412
100%
3.0
92+7
2.8
100%
75%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
38
118192.20.5
65%
5Arda KardzhaliArda Kardzhali510
60%
2.0
84+4
2.4
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
4.0
100%
-
0%
10
3331.60.8
52%
6Botev PlovdivBotev Plovdiv57
40%
1.4
78-1
3.0
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
20
7481.41.6
51%
7Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna46
50%
1.5
64+2
2.5
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
5.0
100%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
40%
8Slavia SofiaSlavia Sofia45
25%
1.2
42+2
1.5
50%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.5
44%
9Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia54
20%
0.8
39-6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
5.0
100%
-
0%
0
0000.61.8
47%
10Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv53
20%
0.6
37-4
2.0
60%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
45%
11Dunav RuseDunav Ruse53
20%
0.6
49-5
2.6
100%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
12Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia52
0%
0.4
510-5
3.0
100%
60%
40%
-
0%
4.0
100%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
51%
13Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna51
0%
0.2
412-8
3.2
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3120.82.4
52%
14Botev VratsaBotev Vratsa51
0%
0.2
313-10
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.6
47%
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →

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