CSKA Sofia’s recent form, a 0-3 loss to OFI, may look shaky, but the Pythia model still deems them the clear favourite, rating a 64 % chance of victory. Their home scoring average of 2.33 goals per game and only 0.56 conceded against weaker opponents explains the high win probability, especially against Cherno More Varna’s weaker away attack, which averages just 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model predicts a 2-0 win for CSKA, the most likely scoreline at 13.2 %. The expected total of 2.6 goals and a 26 % chance of exactly two goals reinforce the modest scoring outlook. Cherno More’s away form is poor, with a 12 % chance of winning and a 23 % draw probability. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.4 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.2 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.3 % with a 2 % edge), Away under 2.5 goals (96.4 %), Home +2 handicap (96.3 %), and Under 5.5 (95.1 % with a 4 % edge).
Results analysis
CSKA Sofia’s recent win over Cherno More Varna has kept their form narrative alive, and the Pythia model’s prediction of a home win proved correct as CSKA secured a 3-1 victory. The model had assigned a 64% probability to a home win, and the final score confirmed that expectation. The suggested selections were all accurate: Under 7.5 (99.5% probability) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (99.4%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.3%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.8%) hit, Under 6.5 (98.3%) hit, Away under 2.5 goals (96.3%) hit, Home +2 handicap (96.2%) hit, and Under 5.5 (95.1%) hit. Every probability was expressed as a percentage, and each selection’s result was noted once, underscoring the model’s accurate coverage of the match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
CSKA Sofia win✓ Hit
63.6%
Avg Implied 63.2% · @ 1.46
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Dafabet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied 22.6% · @ 4.07
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
4.40
Pinnacle
4.27
Unibet
4.20
Dafabet
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Cherno More Varna win✗ Miss
12.8%
Avg Implied 14.1% · @ 6.52
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
7.06
Unibet
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CSKA Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.93
1.62
0.94
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.08
0.83
1.33
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (17)
1.65
0.82
2.10
0.70
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Cherno More Varna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cherno More Varna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.23
1.00
1.20
0.87
1.27
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.00
1.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.92
1.28
0.92
1.25
0.92
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.2%
@ 1.26+0.7%
Under 1.5
25.8%
@ 3.49-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.63
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.0%
@ 1.85-2.5%
Under 2.5
52.0%
@ 1.89+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.92
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.86
Bet365
1.85
Betfair
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.90
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.3%
@ 3.12-3.5%
Under 3.5
73.7%
@ 1.32+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.6%
@ 1.97-2.2%
No
55.4%
@ 1.73+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.98
Unibet
1.98
No
1xBet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
Betfair
1.75
BetVictor
1.75
Betano
1.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.1%@ 6.14+6.0%
1-0
13.0%@ 5.74+5.4%
1-1
11.1%@ 7.23+5.1%
2-1
9.5%@ 7.34+3.6%
0-0
8.5%@ 9.32+3.8%
3-0
8.1%@ 9.19+3.4%
3-1 ✓
5.9%@ 11.26+2.0%
0-1
4.4%@ 14.22+1.4%
CSKA Sofia goals ↓
Cherno More Varna goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
4.4%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
1
13%
11%
3.7%
0.9%
0.2%
2
13%
9.5%
3.4%
0.8%
0.2%
3
8.1%
5.9%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
4
3.8%
2.8%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSKA Sofia goals (down), columns = Cherno More Varna goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.29
Spartak Varna
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.57
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
CSKA Sofia is 2.10 points better than Cherno More Varna in terms of average points per game (2.67 vs 0.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
2.86
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Spartak Varna
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
CSKA Sofia is 1.52 goals better than Cherno More Varna in terms of goals scored per game (2.67 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arda Kardzhali
0.57
Levski Sofia
0.57
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.14
Cherno More Varna
2.29
CSKA Sofia is 1.62 goals better than Cherno More Varna in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 2.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
63%
Slavia Sofia
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
CSKA Sofia
For 5.5 · Against 3.1 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.2 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cherno More Varna
For 4.1 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 10.7 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
CSKA Sofia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.2
8.6
3.0
2.5
3.4
24.1
23.9
24.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
6.5
9.5
5.0
3.4
2.4
4.4
28.7
26.5
29.8
vs Weaker (34)
9.6
9.2
9.9
2.8
2.6
2.9
22.9
23.4
22.4
% over line
52%
58%
47%
40%
33%
46%
70%
75%
67%
% under line
48%
42%
53%
60%
67%
54%
30%
25%
33%
This opponent (Cherno More Varna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cherno More Varna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.6
8.2
2.1
1.8
2.5
24.3
25.2
23.6
vs Stronger (13)
10.7
13.0
9.8
2.7
1.1
4.5
23.9
27.5
22.4
vs Similar (37)
8.0
8.8
7.2
1.9
2.0
1.9
24.5
24.6
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
50%
46%
32%
28%
36%
74%
90%
62%
% under line
52%
50%
54%
68%
72%
64%
26%
10%
38%
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.6
Botev Plovdiv
10.1
Spartak Varna
10.1
CSKA Sofia
9.7
Levski Sofia
9.6
Botev Vratsa
9.5
Ludogorets
9.4
CSKA 1948
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.3
Septemvri Sofia
9.1
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Arda Kardzhali
8.8
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
5.0
Botev Vratsa
4.9
Cherno More Varna
4.9
Spartak Varna
4.9
Ludogorets
4.8
Slavia Sofia
4.7
CSKA Sofia
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.1
Dunav Ruse
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.0
Levski Sofia
24.6
Botev Vratsa
24.6
Arda Kardzhali
24.2
Slavia Sofia
23.8
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.8
Spartak Varna
22.9
Septemvri Sofia
22.8
CSKA 1948
22.7
CSKA Sofia
22.5
Ludogorets
22.4
Botev Plovdiv
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.1%
@ 1.93-3.9%
Under 9.5
55.9%
@ 1.78+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.93
Under
Unibet
1.86
Pinnacle
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.5%
Under 3.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
62.1%
Under 21.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
CSKA Sofia or Draw✓ Hit
87.2%
Avg Implied 85.4% · @ 1.09
Edge
+1.8%
64%
24%
13%
covers CSKA Sofia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
CSKA Sofia or Cherno More Varna✓ Hit
76.4%
Avg Implied 78.1% · @ 1.19
Edge
-1.7%
64%
24%
13%
covers CSKA Sofia + Cherno More Varna
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Draw or Cherno More Varna✗ Miss
36.4%
Avg Implied 36.4% · @ 2.55
Edge
-0.0%
64%
24%
13%
covers Draw + Cherno More Varna
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.55
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
CSKA Sofia over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.6%
@ 1.11+1.1%
Under
15.4%
@ 5.61-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Under
1xBet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
5.50
Superbet
5.35
CSKA Sofia over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
55.7%
@ 1.62-1.5%
Under
44.3%
@ 2.17+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.23
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
CSKA Sofia over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
28.8%
@ 2.94-2.7%
Under
71.2%
@ 1.35+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.11
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Under
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
CSKA Sofia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 5.90-3.8%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.11+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Betano
5.60
1xBet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Cherno More Varna over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
51.6%
@ 1.74-1.6%
Under
48.4%
@ 1.97+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
Betano
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Cherno More Varna over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
16.5%
@ 4.68-3.3%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.15+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
Superbet
4.65
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
BetVictor
1.15
Cherno More Varna over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 13.67-3.2%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Cherno More Varna over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.6%
@ 51.00-99.4%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to CSKA Sofia, so a minus line means CSKA Sofia give that many goals of a start and Cherno More Varna receive them. At -1, CSKA Sofia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal CSKA Sofia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (CSKA Sofia)Actual: Draw
CSKA Sofia -2
18.7%
@ 4.31-2.0%
Draw -2
20.0%
@ 4.28-0.8%
Cherno More Varna +2
61.2%
@ 1.53+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Unibet
4.00
Away
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Handicap -1 (CSKA Sofia)Actual: CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia -1
38.8%
@ 2.29-0.2%
Draw -1
24.8%
@ 3.36-1.8%
Cherno More Varna +1
36.4%
@ 2.59+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.38
10Bet
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Unibet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Marathonbet
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Unibet
3.20
Away
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Unibet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.55
Handicap +1 (CSKA Sofia)Actual: CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia +1
87.2%
@ 1.10+7.8%
Draw +1
9.0%
@ 6.55-4.3%
Cherno More Varna -1
3.8%
@ 12.10-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Marathonbet
4.60
Away
Bet365
17.00
Marathonbet
7.20
Handicap +2 (CSKA Sofia)Actual: CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia +2
96.2%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Draw +2
3.0%
@ 21.00-1.5%
Cherno More Varna -2
0.8%
@ 41.00-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Draw
Bet365
21.00
Away
Bet365
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CSKA Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.43
0.62
0.50
0.36
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.54
0.33
0.67
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
0.59
0.35
0.80
0.40
0.29
0.29
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Cherno More Varna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cherno More Varna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.43
0.33
0.40
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.28
0.52
0.25
0.50
0.31
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.7%
@ 1.36+5.6%
Under 0.5
26.3%
@ 2.92-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.08
William Hil
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
36.2%
@ 2.66+1.4%
Under 1.5
63.8%
@ 1.42-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.82
Pinnacle
2.82
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
BetVictor
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
1xBet
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
13.5%
@ 6.46-0.8%
Under 2.5
86.5%
@ 1.08+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
William Hil
6.50
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
William Hil
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSKA Sofia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
59.6%
@ 1.62+2.2%
Under
40.4%
@ 2.18-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.64
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Under
Pinnacle
2.24
Superbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Betano
2.10
CSKA Sofia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
23.9%
@ 3.92+0.4%
Under
76.1%
@ 1.21-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
4.05
Marathonbet
3.92
1xBet
3.80
Under
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
CSKA Sofia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.3%
@ 9.38-3.6%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.02+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.50
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Cherno More Varna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
32.4%
@ 3.10+2.4%
Under
67.6%
@ 1.32-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.33
Betano
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Unibet
3.05
Marathonbet
3.04
Under
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Cherno More Varna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.3%
@ 11.33-3.0%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.03+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
12.00
Marathonbet
12.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Cherno More Varna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CSKA Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.44
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.54
0.50
0.67
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
1.06
0.47
1.30
0.30
0.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Cherno More Varna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cherno More Varna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.67
0.80
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.76
0.67
0.75
0.62
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.8%
@ 1.22+3.0%
Under 0.5
21.2%
@ 3.83-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.95
Marathonbet
3.82
1xBet
3.82
Superbet
3.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
45.1%
@ 2.05-0.2%
Under 1.5
54.9%
@ 1.70+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Under
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.3%
@ 4.29-1.3%
Under 2.5
79.7%
@ 1.19+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.60
Superbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSKA Sofia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
65.3%
@ 1.43+0.4%
Under
34.7%
@ 2.65-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.44
1xBet
1.41
Under
1xBet
2.70
Betano
2.67
Superbet
2.57
CSKA Sofia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
28.4%
@ 2.90-3.5%
Under
71.6%
@ 1.36+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.93
Betano
2.92
1xBet
2.85
Under
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
CSKA Sofia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.8%
@ 7.00-3.4%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.06+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.40
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.04
Cherno More Varna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
36.8%
@ 2.52-0.0%
Under
63.2%
@ 1.47+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.55
Superbet
2.52
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.50
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.44
Cherno More Varna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 9.03-2.9%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.03+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.70
1xBet
9.60
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Cherno More Varna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.7%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.7%
1.02
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.7%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.2%
1.06
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
88.0%
1.11
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.8%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.10
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
87.2%
1.09
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
87.2%
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
William Hil
1.08
+0.8%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
84.6%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Betfair
1.11
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
83.5%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
BetVictor
1.15
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.7%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.8%
1.22
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.2%
1.28
Unibet
1.34
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
+6.4%
-
Over 19.5 fouls
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.4%
1.19
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.1%
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
-
-
-0.4%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
74.2%
1.26
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.27
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.7%
1.36
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.7%
1.32
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
+3.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
71.6%
1.36
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
71.2%
1.35
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
+2.7%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
CSKA Sofia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Leandro Godoy35%
Alejandro Piedrahita20%
Max Ebong18%
Ioannis Pittas18%
Léo Pereira18%
James Eto'o14%
Olaus Jair Skarsem11%
Bruno Jordão7%
Mohamed Brahimi7%
Adrián Lapeña7%
Petko Panayotov6%
Lumbardh Dellova5%
Ángelo Martino0%
Facundo Rodríguez0%
Ivan Turitsov0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Thibaut Vion0%
Ivan Tasev0%
Gustavo Busatto0%
Ilian Iliev0%
David Seger0%
Isaac Solet0%
Pastor0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Teodor Ivanov0%
Kevin Dodaj0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bruno Jordão36%
Ángelo Martino35%
Adrián Lapeña29%
Léo Pereira27%
David Seger25%
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski25%
James Eto'o24%
Olaus Jair Skarsem22%
Mohamed Brahimi21%
Lumbardh Dellova21%
Max Ebong18%
Leandro Godoy18%
Facundo Rodríguez17%
Alejandro Piedrahita10%
Ivan Turitsov8%
Ilian Iliev7%
Petko Panayotov6%
Fedor Lapoukhov6%
Ioannis Pittas5%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Thibaut Vion0%
Ivan Tasev0%
Gustavo Busatto0%
Isaac Solet0%
Pastor0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Teodor Ivanov0%
Kevin Dodaj0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
James Eto'o33%
Ivan Tasev25%
Pastor11%
Isaac Solet10%
Léo Pereira9%
Ivan Turitsov8%
Mohamed Brahimi7%
Leandro Godoy6%
Petko Panayotov6%
Bruno Jordão0%
Ángelo Martino0%
Facundo Rodríguez0%
Max Ebong0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Lumbardh Dellova0%
Ioannis Pittas0%
Thibaut Vion0%
Olaus Jair Skarsem0%
Gustavo Busatto0%
Ilian Iliev0%
Adrián Lapeña0%
David Seger0%
Alejandro Piedrahita0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Teodor Ivanov0%
Kevin Dodaj0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ioannis Pittas41%
Leandro Godoy35%
Ivan Tasev25%
James Eto'o19%
Petko Panayotov12%
Isaac Solet10%
Léo Pereira9%
Bruno Jordão7%
Mohamed Brahimi7%
Lumbardh Dellova5%
Ángelo Martino0%
Facundo Rodríguez0%
Max Ebong0%
Ivan Turitsov0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Thibaut Vion0%
Olaus Jair Skarsem0%
Gustavo Busatto0%
Ilian Iliev0%
Adrián Lapeña0%
David Seger0%
Pastor0%
Alejandro Piedrahita0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Teodor Ivanov0%
Kevin Dodaj0%
Cherno More Varna · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Georgi Lazarov21%
Weslen Junior17%
João Pedro12%
Vasil Panayotov11%
Asen Chandarov11%
Celso Sidney11%
Dimitar Tonev10%
Berk Beyhan10%
Nikolay Zlatev5%
Plamen Iliev0%
Tsvetomir Panov0%
Ertan Tombak0%
Zhivko Atanasov0%
David Teles0%
Andreias Calcan0%
Dani Martín0%
Vlatko Drobarov0%
Kristian Tomov0%
Asen Donchev0%
Martin Milushev0%
Rosen Stefanov0%
Gustavo França0%
João Bandaro0%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo0%
Jorge Padilla0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Weslen Junior33%
Tsvetomir Panov27%
Asen Chandarov26%
Nikolay Zlatev25%
Asen Donchev21%
Andreias Calcan20%
Berk Beyhan20%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo20%
David Teles19%
Dani Martín19%
Ertan Tombak14%
Jorge Padilla12%
Vasil Panayotov11%
Zhivko Atanasov11%
Vlatko Drobarov11%
Celso Sidney11%
Dimitar Tonev10%
Rosen Stefanov8%
Plamen Iliev0%
João Pedro0%
Kristian Tomov0%
Martin Milushev0%
Gustavo França0%
João Bandaro0%
Georgi Lazarov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martin Milushev20%
Asen Donchev11%
David Teles6%
Dani Martín6%
Vasil Panayotov6%
Asen Chandarov5%
Plamen Iliev0%
Tsvetomir Panov0%
Ertan Tombak0%
Zhivko Atanasov0%
Andreias Calcan0%
Vlatko Drobarov0%
Dimitar Tonev0%
Weslen Junior0%
João Pedro0%
Kristian Tomov0%
Celso Sidney0%
Rosen Stefanov0%
Nikolay Zlatev0%
Gustavo França0%
Berk Beyhan0%
João Bandaro0%
Georgi Lazarov0%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo0%
Jorge Padilla0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Georgi Lazarov16%
Nikolay Zlatev15%
João Pedro12%
Asen Chandarov5%
Plamen Iliev0%
Tsvetomir Panov0%
Vasil Panayotov0%
Ertan Tombak0%
Zhivko Atanasov0%
David Teles0%
Andreias Calcan0%
Dani Martín0%
Vlatko Drobarov0%
Dimitar Tonev0%
Weslen Junior0%
Kristian Tomov0%
Asen Donchev0%
Martin Milushev0%
Celso Sidney0%
Rosen Stefanov0%
Gustavo França0%
Berk Beyhan0%
João Bandaro0%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo0%
Jorge Padilla0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
CSKA Sofia's squad is €20m more valuable than Cherno More Varna's (€26m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
CSKA Sofia's attack is €7m more valuable than Cherno More Varna's (€10m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
CSKA Sofia's midfield is €5m more valuable than Cherno More Varna's (€6m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
CSKA Sofia's defence is €8m more valuable than Cherno More Varna's (€10m vs €2m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
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Levski Sofia
Ludogorets
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Spartak Varna
Dunav Ruse
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv