The model predicts a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.3 goals and a most likely total of three, 22% of the time. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.4% chance. CSKA 1948 are favoured to win, with a 53% probability of victory, while CSKA Sofia have a 24% chance and a draw sits at 23%. CSKA Sofia, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, average 0.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, whereas CSKA 1948, on the road, average 1.29 scored and 1.14 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.6%), Under 6.5 (94.7%), Under 5.5 (88.0%), Home under 2.5 goals (85.5%) and Over 1.5 (85.4%). The model also lists Away +2 handicap (89.7%) and Away over 0.5 goals (86.7%) as selections, though they are marked as misses. The recent form shows both sides coming off defeats, with CSKA Sofia losing 0-3 to OFI and CSKA 1948 losing 0-1 to Septemvri Sofia.
Results analysis
The upset came as CSKA Sofia snatched a 2-0 victory, overturning the model’s prediction of an away win. The pre-match favourite, Away win, had a 53% chance, but the result was the opposite. The model’s other selections largely held up: Under 7.5, Home under 3.5 goals, Under 6.5, Under 5.5, Home under 2.5 goals, and Over 1.5 all hit, with probabilities of 97.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 88.0%, 85.5%, and 85.4% respectively. Misses included Away +2 handicap at 89.7% and Away over 0.5 goals at 86.7%. Both teams entered the match on similar recent form, each coming off defeats, yet CSKA Sofia’s home form note of “coming off a defeat” belied the 2-0 triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
CSKA Sofia win✓ Hit
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSKA 1948 win✗ Miss
52.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CSKA Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.73
2.21
0.71
1.38
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (26)
2.00
0.77
2.58
0.75
1.50
0.79
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA 1948) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA 1948
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.93
1.67
0.93
1.47
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
3.00
3.00
5.00
4.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
1.42
0.83
1.60
0.40
1.29
1.14
vs Weaker (16)
1.50
0.75
1.33
0.89
1.71
0.57
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.4%
Under 1.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.6%
Under 2.5
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.6%
Under 3.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.2%
No
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
7.3%
1-3
6.4%
0-1
6.3%
2-2
6.3%
2-1
6.2%
0-3
4.9%
CSKA Sofia goals ↓
CSKA 1948 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
6.3%
7.3%
4.9%
2.5%
1
3.7%
10%
9.6%
6.4%
3.3%
2
3.1%
6.2%
6.3%
4.2%
2.1%
3
1.3%
2.7%
2.7%
1.8%
0.9%
4
0.4%
0.9%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSKA Sofia goals (down), columns = CSKA 1948 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ludogorets
2.67
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
2.60
Botev Plovdiv
2.33
CSKA Sofia
2.17
Metalurg Pernik
2.00
Arda Kardzhali
2.00
Levski Sofia
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Cherno More Varna
2.00
Rilski Sportist
1.75
Beroe
1.67
Slavia Sofia
1.50
Chernolomets 1919
1.50
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.50
Spartak Varna
1.50
CSKA 1948
1.50
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.50
Belasitsa
1.50
FK Minyor Pernik
1.50
Yantra 2019
1.50
Dobrudzha
1.50
Sportist Svoge
1.50
Botev Vratsa
1.40
Dunav Ruse
1.33
Sayana Haskovo
1.33
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Hebar 1918
1.00
Germaneya
0.97
Benkovski Isperih
0.97
Bdin
0.97
Vitosha Bistritsa
0.97
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.50
Montana
0.50
Litex
0.00
Kom Berkovitsa
0.00
Yambol 1915
0.00
Zagorets
0.00
Spartak Plovdiv
0.00
Septemvri Tervel
0.00
Partizan
0.00
Botev Novi Pazar
0.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.00
Sevlievo
0.00
Vihren
0.00
Spartak Pleven
0.00
Marek
0.00
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.00
CSKA Sofia is 0.67 points better than CSKA 1948 in terms of average points per game (2.17 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA 1948
3.50
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
3.20
Spartak Varna
3.00
Metalurg Pernik
2.67
Fratria
2.50
Ludogorets
2.17
Botev Plovdiv
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
2.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.00
Rilski Sportist
2.00
Yantra 2019
2.00
CSKA Sofia
1.83
Sayana Haskovo
1.67
Arda Kardzhali
1.67
Beroe
1.67
Slavia Sofia
1.50
Chernolomets 1919
1.50
Dobrudzha
1.50
Sportist Svoge
1.50
Cherno More Varna
1.40
Germaneya
1.22
Benkovski Isperih
1.22
Bdin
1.22
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.22
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Yambol 1915
1.00
Zagorets
1.00
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
1.00
Belasitsa
1.00
FK Minyor Pernik
1.00
Levski Sofia
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Marek
1.00
Montana
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.60
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.50
Litex
0.00
Kom Berkovitsa
0.00
Spartak Plovdiv
0.00
Septemvri Tervel
0.00
Partizan
0.00
Botev Novi Pazar
0.00
Sevlievo
0.00
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.00
Hebar 1918
0.00
CSKA Sofia is 1.67 goals worse than CSKA 1948 in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 3.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hebar 1918
0.00
Botev Plovdiv
0.33
Ludogorets
0.33
Levski Sofia
0.33
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.40
Cherno More Varna
0.40
Yantra 2019
0.50
Botev Vratsa
0.60
Dunav Ruse
0.67
CSKA Sofia
0.83
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Spartak Plovdiv
1.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.00
Arda Kardzhali
1.00
Sevlievo
1.00
FK Minyor Pernik
1.00
Beroe
1.00
Metalurg Pernik
1.33
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.50
Spartak Varna
1.50
CSKA 1948
1.50
Fratria
1.50
Rilski Sportist
1.75
Sayana Haskovo
2.00
Botev Novi Pazar
2.00
Septemvri Sofia
2.00
Vihren
2.00
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.00
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
2.00
Montana
2.00
Dobrudzha
2.00
Sportist Svoge
2.00
Germaneya
2.06
Benkovski Isperih
2.06
Bdin
2.06
Vitosha Bistritsa
2.06
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.50
Litex
3.00
Zagorets
3.00
Septemvri Tervel
3.00
Partizan
3.00
Chernolomets 1919
3.00
Belasitsa
3.00
Marek
3.00
Kom Berkovitsa
4.00
Yambol 1915
7.00
CSKA Sofia is 0.67 goals better than CSKA 1948 in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
CSKA Sofia or Draw✓ Hit
47.1%
Avg Implied -
24%
23%
53%
covers CSKA Sofia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia or CSKA 1948✓ Hit
76.6%
Avg Implied -
24%
23%
53%
covers CSKA Sofia + CSKA 1948
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or CSKA 1948✗ Miss
76.3%
Avg Implied -
24%
23%
53%
covers Draw + CSKA 1948
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
CSKA Sofia over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.0%
Under
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
37.6%
Under
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA 1948 over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
86.7%
Under
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA 1948 over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
59.9%
Under
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA 1948 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
32.8%
Under
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA 1948 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to CSKA Sofia, so a minus line means CSKA Sofia give that many goals of a start and CSKA 1948 receive them. At -1, CSKA Sofia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal CSKA Sofia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (CSKA Sofia)Actual: Draw
CSKA Sofia -2
3.4%
Draw -2
6.8%
CSKA 1948 +2
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (CSKA Sofia)Actual: CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia -1
10.3%
Draw -1
13.4%
CSKA 1948 +1
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (CSKA Sofia)Actual: CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia +1
47.1%
Draw +1
21.1%
CSKA 1948 -1
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (CSKA Sofia)Actual: CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia +2
68.2%
Draw +2
16.3%
CSKA 1948 -2
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CSKA Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.37
0.93
0.43
0.62
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (26)
0.88
0.35
1.08
0.42
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA 1948) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA 1948
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.73
0.47
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
3.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.33
0.40
0.20
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (16)
0.62
0.38
0.67
0.56
0.57
0.14
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSKA Sofia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA 1948 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA 1948 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA 1948 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CSKA Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.37
1.29
0.29
0.75
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
1.12
0.42
1.50
0.33
0.79
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA 1948) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA 1948
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.50
0.93
0.47
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
3.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.50
1.20
0.20
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (16)
0.88
0.38
0.67
0.33
1.14
0.43
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSKA Sofia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA 1948 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA 1948 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA 1948 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
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Bulgaria: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →